1. 2005-06 National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3)
Marriage and Fertility

2. Levels, trends & differentials Determinants of fertility
Fertility preferences and ideal family size
(c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare
NFHS-3, India, 2

3. 2.7
At current fertility levels, a woman in India will have an average of 2.7 children during her lifetime
Urban women have attained replacement fertility but rural women have on an average 0.9 children more than urban women.
NFHS-3, India, 3

4. Trends in Fertility by Residence

5. Fertility Differentials and Trend by Caste and Religion
Muslim fertility is decreasing faster than Hindu fertility; thus, Hindu-Muslim fertility differentials are narrowing.
Fertility of ST and OBC women has remained unchanged.

6. Just a Few Years of Education Leads to Substantial Reduction in Fertility
TFR of women with
No education – 3.6
< 5 years of education – 2.5
12+ years of education – 1.8
TFR of women from
Lowest wealth quintile
Second lowest wealth quintile – 3.2
Highest wealth quintile – 1.8
NFHS-3, India,

7. Total Fertility Rates for States
INDIA
Replacement or below replacement
(10 states 35% population)
TFR 2.1 – 2.4
(6 states 20% population)
TFR 2.5 – 3.6
(9 states 19% population)
TFR 3.7 – 4.0
(4 states 25% population)
NFHS-3, India,

8. States Classified by Level of TFR
Fertility Level (TFR)
States
Replacement or below replacement
(10 States with 35% India’s population)
Tamil Nadu, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Sikkim, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Delhi
Between 2.1 and 2.4
(6 States with 20% India’s population)
Tripura, West Bengal, Orissa, Gujarat, Assam, Jammu & Kashmir,
Between 2.5 and 3.6
(9 States with 19% India’s population)
Uttaranchal, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, MP, Rajasthan, Jharkhand
Above 3.6
(4 States with 25% India’s population)
Nagaland, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
NFHS-3, India,

9. Fertility Decline in High Fertility States
Between NFHS-2 and NFHS-3 in most of the
states fertility declined.
TFR in NFHS-2 > 3.0
States
TFR increased
Bihar (0.3)
TFR remained same
Nagaland
TFR decreased
Manipur (0.2), Uttar Pradesh (0.2)
Madhya Pradesh (0.3), Rajasthan (0.6), Meghalaya (0.8)
TFR in NFHS-2 < 3.0, but increased
Jharkhand (0.6), Arunachal Pradesh (0.5), Tripura (0.4),
Assam (0.1)

10. Levels, trends & differentials Determinants of fertility
Fertility preferences and ideal family size
(c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare
NFHS-3, India, 10

11. 12% of women 15-19 are already mothers
Though, fertility in the age group is decreasing, still, a substantial proportion of teenagers have begun childbearing.
12% of women are already mothers
4% of women are pregnant with their first child
In total, 16% women have begun childbearing
NFHS-3, India,

12. Teenage Fertility by Age
Percent who are pregnant or already mothers
Age
NFHS-3, India,

13. Teenage Fertility by State
Women age who are already mothers or pregnant at the time of the survey (%)
States
5% or less
Goa, Himachal Pradesh,
Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi
25% or more
Jharkhand (28%), Bihar (25%),
West Bengal (25%)
NFHS-3, India,

14. Percentage of women age 20-24 married by age 18
Age at Marriage
Percentage of women age married by age 18
NFHS-3, India,

15. Initiation of Childbearing
Median age at first birth for women age 25-49:
19.8 (Total)
20.9 (Urban)
19.3 (Rural)
Median age at first birth increased
by half a year from 19.3 in NFHS-2
NFHS-3, India,

16. State-Level Variation in Early Marriage of Women and Teenage Fertility
Percentage of women age married by age 18
States
Women age already mothers or pregnant at time of survey (%)
Less than 15%
Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir
5% or less
Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi
55% or more
Jharkhand (61%), Bihar (60%), Rajasthan (57%) ,
Andhra Pradesh (55%)
25% or more
Jharkhand (28%), Bihar (25%), West Bengal (25%)
NFHS-3, India,

17. In most states, the proportion of women marrying by age 18 is decreasing and median age at first birth is increasing, but in a few states, the reverse is happening.
Since NFHS-2,
In Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Mizoram, Sikkim, Tripura and West Bengal, the percentage of women age married by age 18 has increased; and
In Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Mizoram, and West Bengal, the median age at first birth has decreased
NFHS-3, India,

18. Birth intervals
In addition to their impact on fertility, birth intervals may also affect the health of mothers and their children
Birth intervals are also strongly associated with child mortality:
Children born too close to a previous birth are at increased risk of health problems and of dying at an early age
NFHS-3, India,

19. Length of Birth Intervals
61% of non-first
births
occur less than
36 months
after the
preceding birth
NFHS-3, India,

20. Levels, trends & differentials Determinants of fertility
Fertility preferences and ideal family size
(c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare
NFHS-3, India, 20

21. Ideal Family Size and Composition
2.9
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.5
All persons
Ever-married women
NFHS-3, India,

22. In the Majority of States, Ideal Family Size is Below 2.5:
Ideal family size of women and men
2.5 to 2.9:
Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh & Manipur
Ideal family size of women and men
Meghalaya, Mizoram & Nagaland
NFHS-3, India,

23. Two-Child Family is Becoming a Norm
Proportion of currently married women and men
who want no more children
Number of living children
NFHS-3, India,

24. Son Preference among Women and Men
Proportion of currently married women and men
having 2 living children and wanting no more children
The use of FP is governed by the family size preferences. Looking into NFHS-3 results we can say that two child norm is acceptable provided there is at least one son among these two children.
The gap between blue and green bars indicate son preference.
Though son preference persists, increasing proportion of women with 2 daughters are ready to stop after 2 children.
NFHS-3, India,

25. Son Preference: Level and Trend
Proportion of currently married women
having 2 living children and wanting no more children
The use of FP is governed by the family size preferences. Looking into NFHS-3 results we can say that two child norm is acceptable provided there is at least one son among these two children.
The gap between blue and green bars indicate son preference.
Though son preference persists, increasing proportion of women with 2 daughters are ready to stop after 2 children.

26. Son Preference by State
In states with replacement and below replacement-level fertility, son preference is low, but exceptions are Punjab and Maharashtra
In states with TFR between 2.1 and 3 son preference is lower, but exceptions are Haryana, Uttaranchal, Jammu & Kashmir, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal

27. Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (Below Replacement Fertility states)
Proportion of currently married women
having 2 living children and wanting no more children
NFHS-3, India,

28. Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (Below Replacement Fertility states)
Proportion of currently married women
having 2 living children and want no more children
NFHS-3, India,

29. Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (States with 2
Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (States with 2.1< TFR <3.0)
Proportion of currently married women
having 2 living children and wanting no more children
NFHS-3, India,

30. Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (States with TFR >3)
Proportion of currently married women
having 2 living children and want no more children
NFHS-3, India,

31. Wanted and Actual Fertility Rates
TFR
TFR
2.7
2.1
3.0
If unwanted fertility is averted, TFR
will reach replacement level
NFHS-3, India,

32. Key Findings
The Indian woman, on average, bears 2.7 children in her lifetime
Urban India has reached replacement-level fertility
Ten states, comprising 35% of India’s population, have already reached replacement-level fertility; 6 more states with 20% population are nearing replacement-level fertility
Early initiation of childbearing and shorter spacing of births are matters of concern
NFHS-3, India,

33. Key Findings, contd. For most couples, a two-child family is the norm
Son preference, though reducing, still persists
Unwanted fertility forms a sizeable part of actual fertility and averting that is the best way to achieve replacement fertility
NFHS-3, India,

34. Thank You