1. Washington Climate Challenge Climate Advisory Team Meeting #1 March 30, 2007 WA Departments of Ecology & Community Trade & Economic Development (CTED) Center for Climate Strategies Ross & Associates

2. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange2 Welcome and Introductions Departments of Ecology and CTED Climate Advisory Team members Agency Advisors Ross & Associates and the Center for Climate Strategies

3. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange3 Agenda Purpose of and Charge to the Climate Advisory Team (CAT) How to proceed to fulfill the CAT’s charge Review the CAT Step-Wise Approach Relationship between the CAT and Technical Working Groups Current “State of Play” of Climate Change in Washington Review of the Draft Washington Emissions Inventory & Forecast and introduction to the Catalog of Climate Emission Reduction Actions Next Steps for the CAT and TWGs, including Schedule and Logistics for Next CAT Meeting Public Comment

4. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange4 Purpose & Key Outcomes Purpose of the CAT –Develop recommendations for achieving the goals laid out in Executive Order 07-02 Charge to the CAT –Review and approve state greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory and forecast –Review and assess recent actions taken and impacts on goals –Identify actions to meet 2020 goals for GHG emissions, job creation fuel savings –Evaluate opportunities for regional collaboration –Identify state lead-by-example opportunities –Identify ways to coordinate state and local GHG reduction actions –Inform and involve the public Report to ECY/CTED by January 2008

5. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange5 CAT and Climate Change Challenge ECY & CTED oversee and coordinate process CAT makes recommendations to ECY/CTED CAT provides guidance to the Technical Working Groups (TWGs) TWGs assist the CAT CCS & Ross provide facilitation, technical support and analysis Public input and review

6. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange6

7. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange7 Key Principles of the Process Transparent Inclusive Step-wise Fact-based Strive for consensus

8. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange8 Transparency Policy Design –Timing, goals, coverage, implementation methods Economic analysis –Data sources –Quantification methods –Key assumptions

9. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange9 Inclusive and Comprehensive All GHG’s All sectors All potential implementation mechanisms State and multi-state actions Short and long term actions

10. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange10 Step-Wise Sequential, incremental –Participants are asked not to reconsider decisions already made in the stepwise process –Once the CAT reaches a milestone by consensus or vote, it moves to the next step Sufficient time, information and interaction between steps CAT stays current with information and decisions

11. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange11 Fact-based Preliminary fact finding –Inventory and forecast of GHG emissions –Inventory of state actions, studies Joint fact finding and policy development –Inventory and forecast of emissions –Priorities for analysis, policy description, policy design specifications, implementation mechanisms, alternative solutions

12. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange12 Strive for Consensus Votes taken to advance to next steps Consensus driven Discussion and alternatives to resolve conflicts, if any Final votes include support at three levels Final report will document level of support

13. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange13 CAT Charter Provide leadership and vision for devising solutions that meet the goals of the Executive order Give consideration to Washington’s unique emission portfolio Represent a wide range of experience and sectors Co-chaired by the Directors of ECY and CTED

14. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange14 CAT Ground Rules Support the process –No debate on the science of climate change, the goals established in Executive Order 07-02, or the timeline All members have equal footing during deliberations and decisions Attend meetings and stay current with information provided to the group and all group decisions No backsliding Must be able to vote or take a position at meetings Make objective contributions

15. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange15 Questions?

16. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange16 The Challenge “The ultimate objective of this Convention.... is to achieve,.… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” –UNFCCC Article 2 Objective, –Rio De Janeiro

17. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange17 Stepwise Planning Process Develop inventory and forecast of emissions Identify a full range of possible actions Identify initial priorities for analysis Develop straw proposals Quantify GHG reductions and costs/savings Evaluate externalities, feasibility issues Develop alternatives to address barriers Aggregate results Iterate to final agreements Finalize and report recommendations

18. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange18 Decision Criteria GHG Reduction Potential (MMTCO2e) Cost or Cost Saved Per Ton GHG Removed Fuel Savings Job Creation Externalities Feasibility Issues

19. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange19 US States: 30 of Top 75 World Emitters WA = #26 among US States, #77 in world

20. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange20 States Set the Bar… Goals Policies Innovation Implementation Consensus Conflict resolution

21. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange21 State GHG Growth Rates FL = 88% US = 50% Data from the Center for Climate Strategies, 2006-2007, and US DOE, 2005

22. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange22 State Climate Plans

23. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange23 State Actions Since 2000 GHG State Emissions Inventories and Forecasts –25 recent Energy and Climate Policies and Mechanisms –300+ types undertaken, more underway State Climate Action Plans –22 complete or underway, more likely Statewide GHG targets and timetables –13 current, 9 underway Reporting systems and or registries –30 underway Regional actions –NEG/ECP, WRCAI, RGGI

24. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange24 State Climate Goals

25. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange25 AZ Climate Plan Results

26. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange26 Categories of Action Energy efficiency and conservation Clean and renewable energy Transportation Forestry Agriculture Waste management Industrial process improvement

27. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange27 States’ “Wedges”

28. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange28 Implementation Methods Voluntary Agreements Technical Assistance Financial Incentives Targeted Spending Codes and Standards Market Based Approaches Pilots and Demos Information and Education Research and Development Reporting and Disclosure

29. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange29 Screening of Potential Actions - Agriculture Sample

30. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange30 Policy Design Proposals CAT identifies about 50 draft potential options for further development TWGs screen, prioritize, and propose initial policy option design (“straw proposals”) –Timing –Goals –Coverage CCS quantifies and presents for review CAT revisits list of potential priorities, as needed

31. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange31 Policy Option Template Policy description (concept) Policy design (goals, timing, coverage) Implementation methods Related programs and policies Estimated GHG savings and costs per MMTCO2e –Data sources, methods and assumptions –Key uncertainties Additional (non-GHG) benefits and costs, as needed Feasibility issues, if needed Status of group approval Level of group support Barriers to consensus, if any

32. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange32 A “Portfolio” of Policy Options

33. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange33 CAT Final Report to ECY/CTED Executive Summary Background, Purpose And Goals –Description of the Process –History and Status of State Actions WA Emissions Inventory & Forecast CAT Policy Recommendations & Results –Energy Supply –Residential, Commercial, Industrial –Transportation –Agriculture –Forestry –Waste Management –Cross Cutting Issues Appendices

34. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange34 Timing and Milestones DateAction March 30, 20071 st CAT meeting June 5, 20072 nd CAT meeting August 20073 rd CAT meeting October 20074 th CAT meeting December 20075 th CAT meeting January 2008CAT Final Report Due Between CAT MeetingsTWG conference calls and meetings

35. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange35 Questions?

36. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange36 CAT and TWGs CAT –Review existing and planned state actions –Identify potential options for design and priorities for analysis –Recommend actions to achieve the EO goals Technical Working Groups (TWGs) –Analysis, review and early ranking of options –Develop initial straw proposals for design –Input and review of CAT recommendations and reports –Review state GHG inventory and forecast TWG process is fully integrated with the CAT –TWGs serve in an advisory role to CAT –CAT membership on the Technical Working Groups

37. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange37 TWG Areas of Focus Transportation –Vehicle efficiency, alternative fuels & demand reduction programs, land use Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (RCI) –Energy efficiency & conservation, industrial process, “customer side” of the meter Energy Supply –Heat and power generation; electrical generation, supply, transmission Agriculture –Biofuels, waste reduction, recycling & energy recovery, solid waste management Forestry –Forest restoration, sustainable forest management, wood energy, sequestration

38. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange38 Questions?

39. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange39 Break

40. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange40 “State of Play” Why we need to take action now What We’ve Already Done How Our Actions Tie to Others – The Local, Regional, and National Connections The Role of Preparation and Adaptation

41. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange41 Why we need to act Emissions growth Population growth

42. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange42 Environmental Challenges Rising sea level Decline in snow pack Milder winters, warmer summers Increase in wildfire risk Changes in peak river flows

43. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange43 Economic Challenges Costs of fighting fire may increase 50% by 2020 - $75 million Water restrictions/higher water prices in the Yakima Basin Increased costs for shoreline protection – seawalls, coast erosion Increase municipal water costs

44. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange44 Opportunities Economic growth Clean energy leadership Avoided damages Shape policy Form markets Political leadership

45. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange45 Accomplishments to-date Required all new fossil fuel power plants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (RCW 80.70) Adopted the California Car Standards –Reduces CO2 emissions in newer cars and light trucks by more than 30% and in SUVs by 25% Adopted renewable fuels standards for transportation by requiring 2% of fuel sold is biodiesel or ethanol Funded the Energy Freedom Loan Program to support in-state biofuels production Instituted high-performance green building standards Have one of the most energy-efficient building codes in the nation

46. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange46 Accomplishments – cont. Retrofitting most polluting diesel school buses and local government vehicles Passed a renewable and energy efficiency initiative - Energy Independence Act Implemented electric utility conservation programs Reduced energy use by state agencies through EO 05-01 Adopted appliance efficiency standards

47. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange47 How the Climate Challenge Ties to other Actions 2003 West Coast Governor’s Global Warming Initiative 2003/04 Climate Protection Advisory Committee Puget Sound Clean Air Agency 2005/06 Legislative Session – CA Vehicle Emissions Standards, Appliance Efficiency Standards, Green Buildings, Biofuels Content 2007 Western Climate Action Initiative – WA, OR, CA, AZ, NM

48. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange48 WA Local Government Actions Puget Sound Clean Air Agency King County City of Seattle Cities participating in the Climate Change Protection Campaign: –Bellingham, Burien, King County, Olympia, Seattle, Spokane, Spokane County, Tacoma

49. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange49 Western Climate Action Initiative WA, OR, CA, AZ, NM signed in February 2007 Three Goals –Set an overall regional goal within 6 months –Develop a design for a market-based, multi-sector mechanism, such as load-based cap and trade program within 18 months –Participate in a multi-state GHG registry Detailed Work Begins in April

50. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange50 2007 Proposed legislation Climate change, SB 6001 (ESSB version): –Adopt Governor’s goals and establish electrical sector performance mechanisms Cleaner energy, HB 1303 (E2SHB version): –Provisions for further use and production of biofuels and ethanol Renewable energy, several House and Senate bills: –Anaerobic digestion power, renewable fuel standards, solar hot water, sustainable energy trust

51. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange51 Preparation and Adaptation We are already seeing signs of climate change Change will continue and we need to –Understand what it means –Be able to incorporate our best predictions of change into our planning and investment decisions Impacts are less well understood than reduction strategies

52. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange52 At least 4 glaciers have disappeared entirely Glaciers tell a compelling story Loss of mass

53. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange53 Photos courtesy of Dr. Ed Josberger, USGS Glacier Group, Tacoma, WA South Cascade Glacier

54. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange54 Questions?

55. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange55 Washington GHG Emissions Draft Inventory and Reference Case Projections Initial analysis by CTED, Ecology and CCS for discussion and final revision –Inventory of historical emissions from 1990 to most recent data year (2000-2005, depending on sector) –Projection of emissions to 2020

56. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange56 Coverage Six gases per USEPA and UNFCCC guidelines –Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O, Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) –Black Carbon may be considered separately All major sources and sinks –Transportation –Electricity Generation –Residential, Commercial, Industrial Fuel Use –Agriculture –Forestry –Industrial Processes and Other Sources

57. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange57 Inventory Approach Based on standard US EPA and UN methodologies, guidelines, and tools Emphasis on transparency, consistency, and significance Preference for Washington or regional data, where available, e.g. as developed by CTED Consumption (load-based) and production- based emissions from electricity generation –Simplified approach used for initial analysis

58. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange58 Projection Approach Reference case assumes no major changes from business-as-usual –Does not include impact of recent policies such as: 2005 Clean Car Act (GHG tailpipe standards) Clean Energy Initiative Others noted in Executive Order Growth assumptions from existing sources –Northwest Power and Conservation Council –WA Population Forecast –Western Regional Air Partnership –US Energy Information Administration –US Bureau of Labor & Statistics

59. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange59 Washington & US Emissions By Sector, Year 2005 (draft) Industrial process emissions include emissions from Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) substitutes

60. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange60 Gross GHG Emission Intensity, 1990-2005 (draft) Per Capita Per GDP/GSP

61. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange61 Washington Gross GHG Emissions By Sector (draft) (includes production-basis electricity emissions*, excludes forestry and soil sequestration) * - similar chart with load-based electricity emissions under development

62. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange62 Washington Gross GHG Emissions Growth (draft)

63. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange63 Forestry (draft) Forest Pool -- Preliminary Draft Data Carbon Flux (MMtC) Carbon Flux (MMtCO 2 ) Live Tree (above ground)-3-10 Live Tree (below ground)-2 Standing Dead & Down Dead-2 Forest Floor-3 Soil Carbon-2-7 Harvested Wood Products-3-12 Totals-10-36 Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. Data source: Jim Smith, USFS, personal communications with S. Roe, CCS, October 2006 and February 2007.

64. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange64 Electricity – Consumption (load- based) vs. Production approaches Source: CTED analysis

65. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange65 Key Points CTED, Ecology, and CCS are currently reviewing methodology and data gaps Draft inventory and projection document expected in April Will include load-based electricity emissions Projected emissions savings from recent actions to be estimated separately

66. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange66 Catalog of States’ Actions Existing, planned and proposed state level actions Wide variety of US states All sectors Wide variety of implementation mechanisms Includes key WA actions CAT will add new potential actions Starting place for identification of CAT priorities

67. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange67 Questions?

68. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange68 Next Steps Schedule Next meeting topic and logistics

69. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange69 Schedule and Milestones DateAction March 30, 20071 st CAT meeting June 5, 20072 nd CAT meeting August 20073 rd CAT meeting October 20074 th CAT meeting December 20075 th CAT meeting January 2008CAT Final Report Due Between CAT MeetingsTWG conference calls and meetings

70. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange70 TWG Status Lots of Volunteers Need to balance size with broad-based interest Expect to finalize by April 6 Interim TWG meeting before next CAT meeting will cover: –suggested revisions to the emissions inventory and reference case projections, –early ranking of options in the catalog and straw voting for initial “priority for analysis” options; and –development of straw proposals for design parameters for selected options

71. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange71 Next CAT Meeting June 5, 2007 in Spokane, WA Agenda: –Review and recommend updates to inventory and baseline forecast –Review and revise catalog of potential actions –Discuss process for identifying initial priorities for TWG analysis –Discuss of process for developing straw policy design proposals –Updates on working groups

72. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange72 Public Comment

73. March 30, 2007www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange73 For more information Website: www.ecy.wa.gov/climate change