1. 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast April 2, 2009 Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services tdrum@weatherbug.com Hurricane Ike, NOAA

2. Review of 2008 Season Forecast

3. Forecast Numbers: 10-12 named Storms 4-6 Tropical Storms should reach Hurricane status 2-4 Hurricanes of Major Category III classification Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) near 100% of normal 2008 Season Forecast 16 8 5 164%

4. 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season

5. General Overview

6. 2009 Atlantic Basin Names AnaBillClaudette DannyErikaFred GraceHenriIda JoaquinKateLarry MindyNicholasOdette PeterRoseSam TeresaVictorWanda

7. Atlantic Basin T.C. Distribution

8. Atlantic Basin Averages

9. Current State of the Atlantic Basin

10. Slightly cooler than average SST Anomalies – Atlantic 3/28/09

11.  Still midway through projected WARM ocean phase that is expected to last ~ 10 more years. Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

12. Current State of EPAC ENSO Cycle

13. El Nino Example - 1997 La Nina Example - 1988 ENSO Cycle

14. Latest Weekly ENSO SST Anomaly ???

15. Forecast SST Anomalies - EPAC

16. Climatology of Comparable Seasons

17.  Going back to 1950, look at a weak La Nina followed by a neutral or weak El Nino. Establishing Data Set Method  Focus on the seasons from above that also occurred during the “warm” phase of the AMO

18. Weak La Nina To Neutral Years(ONI) 10.5 Storms (10.1) 6.2 Hurricanes (5.9) 2.5 Major Hurricanes (2.5) Averages:

19. Weak La Nina + Warm AMO Years 11.2 Storms (10.1) 6.6 Hurricanes (5.9) 3.6 Major Hurricanes (2.5) Averages:

20. Other Factors to Consider

21. African Dust Played a significant role in mitigating tropical cyclone development in 2006 & 2007 and part of 2008.

22. African Rainfall Near average rainfall forecast over the northern Sahel region may lead to dust “outbreaks” again, this season.

23. The Forecast

24. Summary of Forecast Points  La Nina conditions in EPAC to weaken, especially for the second half of the season.  Statistics from previous near neutral ENSO + AMO years weigh heavily toward reduced activity from last year.  Conditions over western Africa mean additional dust outbreaks over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.

25. 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast  11-13 named storms (10.1 avg.)  6-8 hurricanes (5.9 avg.)  3-4 major hurricanes: winds 111+ mph (2.5 avg.)  Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA): near 130% of normal.

26. CME Group Hurricane Contracts 3 Different types of Hurricane Contracts 6 Different locations for Hurricane Contracts Event Futures, Options, Event Binary Options – Based upon named Hurricanes making landfall anywhere in the Eastern US or reaching the CHI-Cat-in-a-box Galveston-Mobile area Seasonal Futures, Options, Seasonal Binary Options – Based upon the accumulated CHI value for all Hurricanes that make landfall within a specific season Seasonal Maximum Futures, Options, Seasonal Maximum Binary Options, Seasonal Maximum 2 nd Event Binary Options – Based on the CHI value of the largest Hurricane to make landfall within a specific season

27. CME Group Hurricane Contract Locations Gulf Coast (Brownsville TX to AL/FL Border) Florida (AL/FL Border to Fernandina Beach, FL) Southern Atlantic (Fernandina Beach, FL to NC/VA Border) Coast Northern Atlantic (NC/VA Border to Eastport, ME) Coast Eastern US (Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME) Gulf & Florida (Brownsville, TX to Fernandina Beach, FL) CHI-Cat-in-a-Box (Galveston-Mobile area)

28. CME Group Hurricane Contract Specifications Standard Contracts: Contract: $1000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Size: 0.1 CHI Index Point Tick Value: 0.1 CHI Index point which equals $100 Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31 Binary Contracts: Contract: $10,000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Value: 0.01 CHI Index point which equals $1 Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31