1. Presentation to 40 th Meeting of the APEC Energy Working Group Brunei Darussalam 24-25 November 2010

2. APEC Energy Ministers Instructions on Nuclear Power at EMM-9 Ministers noted that “a growing number of interested economies are using nuclear power to diversify their energy mix and limit carbon emissions.” Ministers instructed EWG “to undertake a Nuclear Power Emissions Reduction Potential Study (NUPERPS) on the potential for existing and planned nuclear power plants in interested APEC economies to reduce carbon emissions.”

3. Step 1 – Nuclear Plant Data Figure out how many nuclear plants exist, are under construction, and are planned in interested APEC economies. Sources of data include energy information agencies, electricity generating companies, and nuclear power vendors. Data are collected and compiled worldwide by the IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna.

4. Step 2 – Estimate Fossil Fuel Displacement and CO2 Savings Collect estimates already made by various APEC economies of how much coal, gas and oil used for electricity generation is already being displaced or could be displaced by nuclear plants. Also collect estimates from APEC economies of the resulting reductions in carbon emissions. Collect information through a combination of literature review and survey of interested economies.

5. Step 3 – Model Carbon Emissions Reductions by APEC Economy Systematically model emissions reductions from existing and planned nuclear plants in each interested APEC economy, using a least-cost generating model. This would require obtaining detailed information on the generating mix in each economy. There are many available models from which to choose and several consulting firms with long experience in applying such models for electric utility clients. Could add results from different models in different economies, or choose a common model.

6. Step 4 – Disseminate Findings Compile and publicize study results to raise public awareness of the potential of nuclear power to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. This would be done through APEC website and journal, trade press, and ministerial meetings.

7. Simplified Analytic Approach Look at how many tons of CO2 would be emitted in a reference case with project nuclear generation. Look at how many tons of CO2 would be emitted if nuclear generation remains constant at 2010 levels. Compare the “reference case” and “constant nuclear” case to find the difference in CO2 emissions. Caveat: Model uses average fuel mix for electricity generation in each of several regions – not as accurate as a detailed electricity model for each separate grid.

8. Quick Trial Run – EIA WEPS EIA assumes nuclear generation short term – through 2020 – based on current plans and projections of industry and governments for plant construction. EIA assumes nuclear generation long term – after 2020 – based on a combination of announced plans or goals, economics, geopolitics, technology advances, environmental policies, uranium availability. Initial run had a glitch – model grew USA nuclear generation just like in the reference case even when we asked it to hold nuclear generation constant. (So have to adjust APEC totals later to add in United States.)

9. EIA WEPS Reference Case: Nuclear Generation in Billion kWh 201020152020202520302035 USA813834883886 893 Canada110113127134142158 Mexico11 18 Japan305311342358388417 Korea142175218233254266 AUS/NZ000000 Russia155197258324345364 China65186335437512598 Ind/VN486189105123141 APEC164818872262248826672858

10. EIA WEPS Reference Case: Carbon Emissions in Million Tonnes 201020152020202520302035 USA5,5605,8115,9666,1056,2596,412 Canada551553554579609643 Mexico422451499568641741 Japan1,0691,1021,1141,1061,0851,064 Korea506535570627687757 AUS/NZ489512517530546567 Russia1,6571,6421,6481,6661,7151,811 China6,8117,7169,05710,51411,94513,326 Ind/VN1,7411,9462,1632,4782,8823,362 APEC18,80620,26622,08824,17326,36928,684

11. Increase in Carbon Emissions with No New Nuclear (Million Tonnes) 201020152020202520302035 USA Canada008121727 Mexico000047 Japan0014213553 Korea01640516777 AUS/NZ000000 Russia01834617693 China095212292352418 Ind/VN0620335168 APEC less USA 0134329470602744

12. Next Steps Which economies are interested? Which economies have available models? Which economies can contribute estimates? Should we start by adding up estimated emissions reductions from models in various economies? Should we go on to use a common model?