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The Perfect Storm Oklahoma’s population …no signs of growth Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa. 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "The Perfect Storm Oklahoma’s population …no signs of growth Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa. 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Perfect Storm Oklahoma’s population …no signs of growth Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa. 2008

2 Eight sources of the Perfect Storm Lack of mass employment with living wage for unskilled/low-skilled persons, and growing income insecurities Growing workforce shortage Rapid aging of the population Growing challenges to healthy lifestyles and access to quality health care Continued growing immigration Changing environmental conditions and water insecurities Uncertainty of future energy supply Growing challenges to American culture and identity Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

3 Key dimensions of change Demographics Technology Globalization Culture and values Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

4 Oklahoma’s Population … No Signs of Growth Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

5 Definitions… Demographic growth: Increase in the size of population by there being more births than death, and more migrants entering than leaving Natural balance: Fundamental growth when there are more births than deaths Size of the population increases when there are more births than deaths and more migrants arriving than departing (migratory balance) Replacement value: Number of children per family just sufficient to keep the total population constant or 2.1 children per woman Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

6 Worldwide population growth By 2050 there will be 9 billion people on earth 3 billion will have been added just in the last 46 years Fastest growth is in underdeveloped countries Ethnic and religious diversity will be more important than race U.S. population centers will be coastal Taking a closer look… Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

7 Population growth… What about Oklahoma? Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

8 Oklahoma is essentially not growing Annual average growth rate between was 0.6% Without the Hispanic population that would be reduced to 0.3% Average natural growth rate, birth rate minus death rate, was 0.4% Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

9 Population declines in Oklahoma are widespread Between , 45 counties lost population for a total of 311,363 people Between , 34 counties lost population The largest losses were in Cimarron (10.8%), Grant (9.3%), and Tillman (8.4%) Counties Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

10 Between , 9 more counties would have lost population except for the increases in the Hispanic population… Tulsa County was one Tulsa’s loss would have been 0.7% without the Hispanic population which made it a 0.4% gain Among the 43 counties that increased, 18 increased less than 4% or about 0.6% annually In 2006, 40 counties had a population less than 25,000 …the size of the city of Owasso Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

11 62 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties either lost population or grew at a rate less than the state between 1950 and 2005 All but 4 counties had less than 25,000 population in 2005

12 Oklahoma’s Population Shifts OK 59% US Total OK Total Metro Cos. - Cleveland - Rogers - Canadian - Wagoner NE Oklahoma - Delaware - Cherokee Metro Cos. - Tulsa - Oklahoma Sequoyah Co. (NE) Metro Cos. - McClain - Comanche - Mayes (NE) & - Marshall (SCrtl) Metro Cos. - Logan - Creek Only 15 counties grew at or above the state’s growth of 59% All but 6 counties were over 50,000 population in 2005 Source: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

13 Any growth mainly occurred in Metro Areas The Oklahoma City and Tulsa MSAs share of the state’s growth between was 89% Oklahoma’s population grew 3.6%; the OKC/Tulsa MSAs grew 5.7% Non-urban areas grew 1.4 % Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

14 Oklahoma MSAs and Non MSA Population Changes # Change % Change Average Annual Growth Oklahoma Population 3,454,5103,579,210124,7003.6%0.6% Hispanic 180, , , ,45066, %5.4% Non-Hispanic 3,273,670 3,273,670 3,331,760 3,331,76058,0901.8%0.3% Oklahoma City & Tulsa MSA 1,959,3002,070,090110,7905.7%0.9% Oklahoma City MSA 1,097,8351,172,34074,5056.8%1.1% Hispanic74,040104,80030, %6.0% Non-Hispanic1,023,7951,067,54043,7454.3%0.7% Tulsa MSA 861, ,465897,75036,2854.2%0.7% Hispanic 39,935 39,93560,07520, %7.0% Non-Hispanic 821, ,530837,67516,1452.0%0.3% Non-Urban Counties Grew 1,380,5841,399,94019, %0.2% Lawton MSA 114,626109,180(5,446)-4.75%-0.8% Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

15 Oklahoma County & Tulsa County Population Changes # Change% Change Average Annual Growth Oklahoma County 661, , , ,26629,5254.5%0.7% Hispanic 57,945 57,945 82,331 82,33124, %6.0% Non-Hispanic 603, , , ,9355,1390.9%0.1% Tulsa County 563, , , ,79513,9222.5%0.4% Hispanic 33,956 33,956 51,533 51,53317, %7.2% Non-Hispanic 529, , , ,262-3, %-0.1% Both Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties have been significantly affected by the Hispanic population Without Hispanic population growth, Tulsa County would have had a decline in population Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

16 Growth related to natural balance Oklahoma’s natural growth rate has been variable but low 30 counties in Oklahoma had less than 200 births per year Of these, 15 counties had less than 100 births per year Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

17 In Tulsa, and in Oklahoma, natural population growth is strongly impacted by fertility rates of Hispanic women Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

18 Growth related to natural balance Natural growth is strongly impacted by fertility rates of Hispanic women Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

19 Growth related to migration/ immigration Increase in the Hispanic population, including immigrants, is the most critical contributor to population growth in small states Oklahoma’s Hispanic population grew by over 66,000 between or 37%, an average annual growth of 5.4% The same population grew another 5.5% between or by almost 14,000 people Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

20 Growth related to migration/ immigration The non-Hispanic population grew 58,000 or 1.8% between or less than 0.3% annually The White non-Hispanic population grew by only 19,197 or 0.78%, about 0.1% per year Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

21 Race Change% Change White NH 61,362 52,742 -8, Black 24,716 25, Native American5,639 7,404 1, Hispanic10,31719,598 9, Race Change% Change White NH65,84858,731-7, Black17,16617, Native American10,43913,4673, Hispanic6,08811,8175, Oklahoma County School October 1 Enrollment Tulsa County School October 1 Enrollment Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

22 Oklahoma’s Population Age Structure Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

23 Oklahoma’s total population has grown at just under 0.6% per year People 65 and over increased 5.1% between 2000 and 2007 Total & Over85 & Over Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

24 Between 2007 and 2030, Oklahoma’s total population is projected to grow at a slow pace of +10.2% The population of people 65 and over is projected to increase 60% The working age population is projected to decline Total & Over85 & Over Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

25 Age Structure: Total Population Percent Change US Compared to Oklahoma by Single Year of Age The age group that is most productive (34-47) is projected to decline Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

26 The Perfect Storm …is available on our website: Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa - June 2008 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa


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