1. NEPAL'S CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO AND EFFORTS TO PROMOTE LOW CARBON ENERGY Dinesh R Bhuju Academician (Fellow) Nepal Academy of Science and Technology

2. Country Profile Area: 147,181 sqkm, landlocked mountainous Population: 27 million HDI (2010) 0.428 Per capita income: $1,100 (2008 est.) Main economic activity: Agriculture, >80 % of the population Energy: About 80% forest (fuel wood) Natural Resources: About 6,000 rivers and streams; About 7,000 vascular plant species Nepal, along with over 150 other countries, signed UNFCCC in June1992; ratified the convention on 2nd May in 1994, and this convention came into force on 31st July in 1994. GHG TypeNet Emission Major Source Carbon dioxide 9747GgTransport (31%), Industrial (27%), Residential (22%) Methane948GgAgriculture Nitrous Oxide 29 Gg Agriculture soils Emission data for three gases having direct Greenhouse effects in Nepal Nepal

3. ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TREND All Nepal Mean Temperature Trend

4. GCM Projections Temperature increase 0.5ºC - 2.0ºC with a multi-model mean of 1.4ºC, by the 2030s. Extremely hot days projected to increase by up to 55% by the 2060s and up to 70% by the 2090s; Extremely hot nights are projected to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and 93% by the 2090s. Precipitation change: from a decrease of 14% to an increase of 40% by the 2030s and from a decrease of 52% to an increase of 135% by the 2090s. IPCC 4th Assessment Report Risk of GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods): starting to reduce the risks of GLOFs by draining water from glacier lakes [18.xcl]. Glacial lake size: Lake Tsho Rolpa in the Nepal Himalaya has increased from 0.23 km2 to 1.65 km2 (1957-1997) [1.3.1.1]. Serious and recurrent floods during 2002, 2003 and 2004 [Table 10.3] Temperature and decreases in precipitation along with increasing water use have caused water shortages that led to drying up of lakes and rivers [10.2.4.2] CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN NEPAL

5. Highest 24-hr max. rainfall: 540 mm Highest Rainfall intensity: 67 mm/hr (Tistung) Northward shift of monsoon trough & local effect Flash flood, debris flow and landslides More than 1000 deaths Loss of animals and properties amounted to hundreds of millions of rupees. Damage to hydropower, Barrage, bridges, irrigation projects, buildings, agricultural land etc. EXTREME WEATHER EVENT Cloudburst of 19-21 July 1993, Tistung

6. EVOLUTION OF GLACIAL LAKE AX010 1989 1978 1989 19982008

7. There was new recruitments of seedlings and saplings in tree-line ecotone. The species limit has advanced from 3,673m asl in 1958 to 3,841m asl in 2007 with a total of 168 m upslope shift at the average rate of 34.29 m per decade. The seedlings below tree-line have comparatively faster growth. ______________________________ Ref. M. Suwal 2010 VEGETATION SHIFT IN HIGH HIMALAYA

8. ENERGY SCERNARIO OF NEPAL Energy Consumption in Nepal Total 401 MGJ SourcePer cent Traditional87% Commercial12% Alternatives>1% Source: WECS 2010 World average energy consumption per year per person: 68 Gigajoule Per capita energy consumption of Nepal: 15 Gigajoule

9. HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION Rivers: >6000; Steep topography Potential 83,000 MW; Technically feasible 43,000 MW Pharping: 500 kW Access to electricity: 43.6% of the total population Total energy generated 714 MW; Fulfills merely 1% of total energy demand Currently power deficit of 400 MW in the country Source: Economic Survey, MOF, 2009/10

10. STATUS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY Source: RETs Data Book, AEPC,2010

11. SOLAR ENERGY Country Average = 4.7 kWh/m 2 /day Solar Energy source is free Solar Energy source is Renewable Solar Energy is abundant 10% tapping- 34587535000 KWh/day Around 300 days Sunshine 11

12. SOLAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES Solar Photovoltaic Technology Solar Light Energy Solar Heat Energy Solar Thermal Technology Solar Home System Solar Tuki Institutional solar PV system Solar Water pumping system Building integrated solar PV Systems Electrical vehicle charging station Solar Dryer Solar Cooker Solar Water Heater Solar room heating system Solar Refrigeration 12

13. SNSERVICE% POWERUNITS 1Telecommunications21.63,000+ 2Utility supply (centralized)2.12 3Solar Home System71.875,000 4Water supply2.025 5Aviation0.845 6Misc.1.7100+ Total100 Application of PV Power by Sector Total electricity generation: 4,635 kWp; Public Call Offices 75% by PV system. Potential 8 GWh/day, if 0.01% of the total land area is used. Source: AEPC 2006 PV POWER Pyramid International Lab. Nepal

14. WIND ENERGY The annual average energy potential is about 3.387 MWh/m2 The potential area of wind power in the country is about 6074 sq. km with wind power density greater than 300 watt/m2 More than 3,000 MW of electricity could be generated at 5 MW per sq km. The commercially viable wind potential of the country is estimated to be only about 448 MW.

15. BIOMASS & BIOGAS Biomass energy accounts for about 15% of the world’s primary energy consumption and about 38% of the primary energy consumption in developing countries (WECS 2010). Furthermore, biomass often accounts for more than 90% of the total rural energy supplies in developing countries The potential of producing biogas is about 1.9 million plants out of which 57% in Terai, 43% in hills and mountains. There are more than 2,000,000 biogas plants installed in various districts of Nepal. Biomass from waste and invasive plant species

16. Fossil Fuel Replacement for Petrol: Ethanol Production/ha Cost of Production : NPR 22/l Capacity: 22000kl to replace 7300kl of petrol Annual Fossil Fuel Consumption: Petrol: 73,000kl/year BIOFUEL PROSPECTS 1 hectare 40MT of sugar caneprocessing 4 MT sugar 1.6 MT molasses 352L of ethanol 2800L of ethanolFermentation

17. Cost of Production : NPR 43/l Without selling byproducts: NPR 32/l by selling by products Annual Fossil Fuel Consumption: Diesel 2,75,000kl/year 1 hectare10 MT of seeds 2500 plants 7500kg of seed cake 3048L biodiesel Fertilizer 384kg of Glycerol soap/ cake transesterification FOSSIL FUEL REPLACEMENT FOR DIESEL

18. Energy Policy Structure Periodic Development Plan: since Fifth Plan (1975-1980) Hydropower Development Policy 1992 Water Resources Strategy 2002 National Water Plan 2005 Ten Year Hydropower Development Plan 2009 Rural Energy Policy 2006 Act/Rules/Regulations