1. The mechanisms of Disease Spread and Population Growth

2. Causes of Infectious Disease
Caused by infective agents:
Bacteria: These one-cell organisms are responsible for such illnesses as strep throat, urinary tract infections and tuberculosis
Viruses: Even smaller than bacteria, viruses are the cause of a multitude of diseases — ranging from the common cold to AIDS
Fungi: Many skin diseases, such as ringworm or athlete's foot, are caused by fungi. Other types of fungi can infect your lungs or nervous system
Parasites.:Malaria is caused by a tiny parasite that is transmitted by a mosquito bite. Other parasites may be transmitted to humans from animal feces.

3. Disease Spread by Direct Contact
Coming in contact with someone who is ill or infected
Person to person: The most common way for infectious diseases to spread is through the direct transfer of bacteria, viruses or other germs from one person to another
Individual with the bacterium or virus touches, coughs on or kisses someone who isn't infected.
Exchange of body fluids from sexual contact or a blood transfusion

4. Disease Spread by Direct Contact
Animal to person: Pets can carry infectious agents
Being bitten or scratched by an infected animal
Handling animal waste -- toxoplasmosis infection by scooping your cat's litter box
Mother to unborn child: A pregnant woman may pass infectious diseases to her unborn baby
Some infectious agents can pass through the placenta
Agents in the vagina can be transmitted to the baby during the birthing process

5. Disease Spread by Indirect Contact
Many infectious agents can linger on an inanimate object, such as a tabletop, doorknob or faucet handle
Environmental transfer-- When you touch the same doorknob grasped by someone ill with the flu or a cold, for example, you can pick up the viruses he or she left behind. If you then touch your eyes, mouth or nose before washing your hands, you may become infected.

6. Disease Spread by Insect transfer (Insect bites)
Some infectious agents rely on insect carriers — such as mosquitoes, fleas, lice or ticks — to move from host to host
These carriers are known as vectors
Mosquitoes can be vectors for malaria parasite or West Nile virus, and deer ticks may be vectors for the bacterium that causes Lyme disease

7. Disease Spread by Food Contamination
Contaminated food and water
Infectious agents spread to many people through a single source
E. coli is a bacterium present in or on certain foods — such as undercooked hamburger or unwashed fruits or vegetables

8. Infection vs. Disease Infection Disease
Often the first step, occurs when bacteria, viruses or other microbes enter your body and begin to multiply
Disease
Disease occurs when the cells in your body are damaged — as a result of the infection — and signs and symptoms of an illness appear.
In response to infection, your immune system springs into action: White blood cells, antibodies and other mechanisms goes to work to rid your body of whatever is causing the infection
For instance, in fighting off the common cold, your body might react with fever, coughing and sneezing

9. Spread of Disease in Ecological Systems
Splashing rain, water currents, air currents
Animal to animal transfer
Migration
Animal contamination (fecal deposition)
Environmental transfer
Plant to animal
Insect transfer

10. Spread of a disease
The rate of spread also has a lot to do with the nature of the disease
Length of being contagious
Transmission (air, water, food, diarrhea)
Transmission rate (i.e. the chance that any particular encounter will transmit the disease)
Death rate due to the disease
Epidemic occurs if contagion or transmission rate it exceeds the norm
Less lethal diseases will have higher contagion rates without a sense of emergency (such as the common cold or the common flu)
Small increases above the norm in diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV, Ebola, or other such highly lethal viruses, results in a state of emergency

11. Spread of a disease
Major differences between bacterial and viral illnesses.
Antibiotics work for bacterial disease, and sometimes vaccines can be developed for viral disease.
There isn't always a quick fix to an illness, however, since both bacteria and viruses mutate and alter their genetic makeup, making previous treatments non-effective.

12. Disease Simulation
Most diseases begin with what is called "the virgin field"—a scenario in which subjects (humans or other animals) have no natural or in case of humans, man-made immunity to the disease or
zero

13. Running a simulation In this first run-through:
In this first run-through:
population does not move around the field; they interact with their neighbors, but do not travel long distances.
run the simulator to 100 days (click on Run button) three times and answer the following:
Do you get the exact same results each time? How do the results compare to each other and to your prediction? What factors might contribute to susceptibility to the disease?

14. Running a simulation
Population density can impact the rate at which a disease moves through a population
Set parameters for low, medium, and high population density and run the simulation three times each
What could be done to prevent the spread of disease in a low population density? What kinds of challenges would high population density present to these precautions?

15. Running a simulation
Population mixing in a contagious area is analogous to increasing population density. Both increased density and increased movement of people bring more contagious people into contact with susceptible people, thus increasing the spread of disease
Set parameters to low, medium, and then high mixings and run simulation 3 times in each mode

16. Classroom simulation
Follow directions in handout

17. Population growth

18. Population size = arrivals -departures
Births and immigration add individuals to a population.
Births
Immigration
PopuIation size
Emigration
Deaths
Deaths and emigration remove individuals from a population.
Population size = arrivals -departures
“Arrivals” are referred to as NATALITY: Hatching, Born, Germinate
“Departures” are measured as MORTALITY: can be measured as the number of deaths

19. Population Growth In a population without immigration and emigration:
Growth = births - deaths
r = b - d
This is referred to as biotic potential

20. Determination of biotic potential is tedious and time consuming

21. Logistic and exponential growth

22. Exponential Growth Growth without limits Characteristic J-shaped curve
Growing at biotic potential [r]

24. Simulation of Exponential Growth
Website:
Click “run applet” button
Follow directions on handout

25. Exponential Growth: Effect of Birth Rate

26. Exponential Growth: Change During Growth

27. Logistic Growth Carrying capacity (K)- maximum population
Environmental resistance- slows growth
Characteristic S-shaped curve

30. How well does the logistic model fit the growth of real populations?
The growth of laboratory populations of some animals fits the S-shaped curves fairly well.

31. Some of the assumptions built into the logistic model do not apply to all populations.
It is a model which provides a basis from which we can compare real populations.

32. Simulation of Logistic Growth
Website:
Click “run applet” button
Follow directions on handout

33. Logistic: Effect of Carrying Capacity

34. Logistic: Effect of Birth Rate

35. Logistic: Oscillation Around K
Birth rate = 3.0

36. Logistic: When N far Exceeds K

37. Population Cycles Some populations show regular boom and bust cycles
Year
1850
1875
1900
1925 40 80
120
160 3 6 9
Lynx population size (thousands)
Hare population size (thousands)
Lynx
Snowshoe hare
Some populations show regular boom and bust cycles

38. Commercial catch (kg) of male crabs (log scale)
Extreme fluctuations in population size are often more common in invertebrate populations
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
10,000
100,000
730,000
Commercial catch (kg) of male crabs (log scale)

39. Stability and Fluctuation
Long-term population studies have challenged the hypothesis that populations of large mammals are relatively stable over time
The pattern of population dynamics observed in this isolated population indicates that various biotic and abiotic factors can result in dramatic fluctuations over time in a moose population.
Researchers regularly surveyed the population of moose on Isle Royale, Michigan, from 1960 to During that time, the lake never froze over, and so the moose population was isolated from the effects of immigration and emigration.
FIELD STUDY
Over 43 years, this population experienced two significant increases and collapses, as well as several less severe fluctuations in size.
RESULTS
CONCLUSION
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Moose population size
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Steady decline probably caused largely by wolf predation
Dramatic collapse caused by severe winter weather and food shortage, leading to starvation of more than 75% of the population

40. Stability and Fluctuation
Long-term population studies have challenged the hypothesis that populations of large mammals are relatively stable over time
The pattern of population dynamics observed in this isolated population indicates that various biotic and abiotic factors can result in dramatic fluctuations over time in a moose population.
Researchers regularly surveyed the population of moose on Isle Royale, Michigan, from 1960 to During that time, the lake never froze over, and so the moose population was isolated from the effects of immigration and emigration.
FIELD STUDY
Over 43 years, this population experienced two significant increases and collapses, as well as several less severe fluctuations in size.
RESULTS
CONCLUSION
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Moose population size
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Steady decline probably caused largely by wolf predation
Dramatic collapse caused by severe winter weather and food shortage, leading to starvation of more than 75% of the population

41. Stability and Fluctuation
Long-term population studies have challenged the hypothesis that populations of large mammals are relatively stable over time
The pattern of population dynamics observed in this isolated population indicates that various biotic and abiotic factors can result in dramatic fluctuations over time in a moose population.
Researchers regularly surveyed the population of moose on Isle Royale, Michigan, from 1960 to During that time, the lake never froze over, and so the moose population was isolated from the effects of immigration and emigration.
FIELD STUDY
Over 43 years, this population experienced two significant increases and collapses, as well as several less severe fluctuations in size.
RESULTS
CONCLUSION
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Moose population size
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Steady decline probably caused largely by wolf predation
Dramatic collapse caused by severe winter weather and food shortage, leading to starvation of more than 75% of the population

42. Age structure of populations
The ratio of the various age classes to each other in a population
Age pyramids portray the age-structure of a population
Ratio affects rates of population growth
Pre-reproductive (v. important)
Reproductive
Post-reproductive
Mortality and natality rates differ for different age groups

44. Population Growth Simulation
Start by running the simulator to 2050 for all seven countries (click on Run button). Record their population growth rates at the end of the simulated period
How do you suppose living conditions differ between the country furthest along in the demographic transition compared to the country earliest in the transition? How would living conditions in these two countries affect both birth and death rates?
Think of social factors that contribute to lower birth rates in the countries farther along. How might these social conditions be encouraged to emerge in less developed countries?
In general, how do the concepts of "early, middle, and late demographic transition" map to the concepts of "first, second, and third world countries"?

45. Demographic transition

46. Sources: