1. Beyond Lethal Firearms and Sub-National State Building in Mindanao EdQ 19 March 2012

2. The Puzzle It is a fundamental interest of the state to control guns and maintain monopoly of coercion… but – why does the state tolerate accumulation and proliferation of firearms in the hands of civilians?; and, Why do civilians participate in the shadow economy of firearms despite the iron hand of the state, threats of penalty and inducement of violence? Does firearms accumulation and proliferation strengthen state formation at the sub-national level?

3. The Argument Firearms accumulation and proliferation fulfills a schizophrenic function of supporting patronage-based sub-national state building founded on protection but weakening central authority to promote and ensure fundamentals of administrative, political, economic, social and environmental governance

4. Evidence (1) Weakened central authority: ‘extra-bureaucracy’ in firearms regulation at central level coupled with corruption that weakens central authority Porous licit and illicit trade in firearms High incidence of illicit weapons use in gun related crimes Unbridled accumulation and proliferation Multi-functional demand system beyond the purview of state regulation State complicity in the supply system and structure of loose firearms

5. Evidence (2) Sub-national state building: Low trust on central state capacity to protect citizens Selective horizontal violence as product of informal discourse between political actors and civilians and the latter’s rational approach to dealing with political actors Using extreme-case comparison, gun-powered and state supported clan-dominated local governments fail in the economy, social services, environment, administration and governance fundamentals

6. Theoretical Lenses Multi-sited ethnography and life history methodology (MacGaffey and Bazenguissa-Ganga 2000; Massey 2005; Falzon 2005) and network analysis (Law 1991)in analyzing the system and structure of the illicit trade in firearms Kalyvas’ (2006) theory of selective violence within the main cleavages of civil conflict – to analyze the behavior and relationships of civilian gun holders and political actors; also argued by Friman (2009) and Andreas and Wallman (2009) as a tool for market regulation in illicit drugs Scott (1972) and Hutchcroft’s (2000) institutional theory to analyze the behavior of the state in regard to firearms accumulation and proliferation; and Tilly’s (1985) formulation of state building as ‘organized crime’ that connects violence, sale of protection and revenue generation

7. Methodological Approach Three steps: ethnographic examination, secondary research and micro extreme cases comparison Use of multi-sited ethnography and “mediated conversations” - Storytellers: 4 illicit actors, 4 licit actors, 5 gun users in Talayan and 5 gun users in Naawan Secondary research: firearms and socio-economic data Extreme case comparison: Talayan (Maguindanao) and Naawan (Misamis Oriental)

8. The Global Market of Small Arms 347 million small arms produced between 1945 and 2000 Small arms producing companies have grown from 200 in 1980 to 600 in 2001 Production takes place in 95 countries; illicit production takes place in 25 countries Largest producers and exporters: USA, Germany, France, Russia and Britain with US$ 20 billion in global sales of all weapons (10% consisting of small arms)

9. USA: # 1 in export and import In 2006: imports accounted for 59% of global export sales in hand guns and 42% of hunting shotguns 270 million handguns in civilian hands; 88 guns per 100 people (in the Philippines: 3 per 100 people) In 2006: 10,225 gun homicides out of 17,030 homicides; 5.75 firearms suicides per 100,000

10. Guns in the Philippines Gun policy: American tradition, tolerant, highly centralized, secluded and weakly regulated Licensed firearms: from 328,322 in 1993 to 929,034 by 2010; accumulation of around 50,000 per year Loose firearms: from 130,042 in 1993 to 1.9 million by 2010 Total firearms in the hands of civilians: 2.8 million; estimated value @ PHP 141 to PHP 283 billion Other estimates: 3.9 million firearms with less than 20% registered

11. Registered/Licensed Firearms, 1990-2008 PNEMO 6= Presidential National Emergency Memorandum Order No. 6 of 1990; PNEMO 6 cancelled licenses of all registered firearms. The 1994 Amnesty Program offered to legitimize all loose firearms.

12. Distribution of Loose and Licensed Firearms, Philippines, as of 2010 1.39 million (73%) (1.1 million or 80% in NCR) 148,900 (8%) 358,250 (19% ) Loose Firearms: 1,905,679 (67.3% ) Loose Firearms: 1,905,679 (67.3% ) Licensed Firearms: 929,034 (32.7%) Licensed Firearms: 929,034 (32.7%) 675,269 72.6% ( 270,822 or 30% in NCR) 119,747 (12.8%) 134,018 (14.4%) Total Firearms: 2,834,713 Total Firearms: 2,834,713 2.06 million 268,647 492,268

13. Licensed Purchases of Firearms, Philippines: 1990-2008

14. Guns and Civil Conflict: Guns Purchases (National), 2002-2008 - AFP-MILF Skirmishes (Mindanao) 2002-2010

15. Gun Crimes, Philippines 2008-2010

16. Guns in Mindanao 492,268; 70% unlicensed Largest concentrations: ARMM (32%) and central Mindanao (17%) Lower concentrations in other regions like Region 10 (12% of Mindanao total)

17. Mindanao: Gun Crimes and Civil Conflict

18. Distribution of Loose and Licensed Firearms in Mindanao, as of 2010 32% 17% 14% 12% 13% 12% 20,203 FAs 42,231 Fas (61% of total in the region) 62,718 Fas (74% of total in the region) Philippines: 1 Loose Firearm per 49 persons Licensed: 134,018 (27%) Licensed: 134,018 (27%) Loose: 358,250 (73%) Loose: 358,250 (73%) Total: 492,268 Total: 492,268 114,189 Fas (85% of total in the region) 26,514 FAs 22, 210 FAs R10 Total: 68,745 R10 Total: 68,745 ARMM Total: 134,392 ARMM Total: 134,392 R12 Total: 84,928 R12 Total: 84,928 44.5% of all firearms in Mindanao are in ARMM and Central Mindanao

19. Distribution of Loose Firearms in Mindanao

20. Who has the guns and what for? 20% as tools for the coercive power of the state 1% in the hands of rebels as tools in challenging the state and proto-state formation Unknown number in the hands of organized non-state actors The bulk in the hands of civilians 6,075 firearms (0.2% of total) used in 5,779 gun-related crimes in 2010; 99% illicit firearms Inverse proportion of FA use in main cleavages and crime Indicative high in gun purchases when the main cleavage is in the low

21. Legal and IllegalStructures of Protection Legal Inventory Legal Inventory Illegal Inventory Illegal Supply Black & Grey Markets Black & Grey Markets Brokers MILF Politician s Business Elites Crime Syndicates CPP- NPA Conflict Fields Private Individuals Security Agencies System of the Illegal Trade in Firearms (Gathered from Life Histories) Financial Incentives Profit Margins and Rents from Protection Multifunctional and Multi-directional Demand Structure

22. The Function-Based Incentive Structure in Illegal Firearms Trade (Gathered from Life Histories) Black & Grey Markets Black & Grey Markets Supply Side Demand Side  Rents from protection  Cash conversion of inventory  Recycling of recovered loose firearms  Force multiplier for state security functions  Strengthen power of local elites  Incremental price gains in transactions  private protection  Power projection  Leverage in political bargaining  Enhancement of belligerency claim  Economic protection  Military (force) multiplier  Fill gaps in state protection

23. Case Study Areas: Talayan (Mag.) and Naawan (Mis. Or)

24. Extreme case comparison: Talayan and Naawan TalayanNaawan What they have in common 4 th class municipality IRA a little less than PHP 40 million per annum Households, a little less than 5,000 each Where they differ Established in 1976 (36 years old)Established in 1957 (55 years old) One clan in power since1976; same clan in power in two adjacent municipalities Succession of professionals; no single dominant clan Land area: 14,000 hectaresLand area: 900 hectares Local revenues (2010): PHP 840,000Local revenues (2010): PHP 6.3 million Total income: PHP 55 million (from IRA and non-IRA transfers such as donor programs and national government programs) Total income: PHP 41 million Firearms in civilian hands: 5,000 to 15,000Firearms in civilian hands: 16 Registered enterprise: 1 (based on anecdotal evidence) Registered enterprise: 238 in 2010, 282 in 2011 (based on actual records) People die early, men at 58 and women at 62 (regional average) People live relatively longer; men at 65 and women at 70 (regional average) Grade VI NAT MPS (2010): 50% (regional data)Grade VI NAT MPS (2010): 70% (regional data)

25. Performance in Fundamentals of Governance: Naawan and Talayan

26. Performance in Administrative Governance: Naawan and Talayan

27. Performance in Economic Governance: Naawan and Talayan

28. Performance in Social Governance: Naawan and Talayan

29. Performance in Environmental Governance: Naawan and Talayan

30. Conclusions Evidence suggests the schizophrenic function of firearms accumulation and proliferation in the hands of civilians Where firearms support clan-based patronage, the element of protection tends to undermine other fundamentals of state Extra-bureaucratic complicity in illegal firearms accumulation and proliferation weakens the coercive power of the state and creates incentives for sustained proliferation Civilian gun holders selectively use violence for their own interest and protection including evasion of state authority

31. Possible Recommendations GPH accession to the UN Program of Action on tracing, marking and reporting. Public decommissioning of confiscated weapons to reduce leakage back to the black and grey markets. Legislative oversight of the FED and promotion of transparency in firearms trading and registration. Explicit inclusion of firearms regulation in the campaign against corruption. Strengthening law enforcement and deterrence against crime

32. Thank You!