Presentation on theme: "Econometric-Process Simulation Models for Semi-Subsistence Agricultural Systems: Application of the NUTMON Data for Machakos."— Presentation transcript:
Econometric-Process Simulation Models for Semi-Subsistence Agricultural Systems: Application of the NUTMON Data for Machakos
Various features of semi-subsistence ag pose challenges to modeling: low specialization, high diversification, many crops and livestock complex intercropping high rates of crop failure limited use of purchased inputs small parcels, changes in parcel configuration between seasons family and hired labor
Various features of semi-subsistence ag pose challenges to modeling (cont.): partially observed prices (incomplete input and output markets) transaction costs high and difficult to measure (transport, information) weak institutions (legal, property rights, financial) Implication: conventional models and statistical analysis may lead to faulty inferences and predictions.
Integrated Assessment Approach to Modeling Ag. Production Systems
Econometric-Process Simulation Models Use econometric production models to parameterize statistical simulation model of land use (extensive margin) and input use (intensive margin) decisions of farmers Use crop models to estimate spatial variation in productivity and simulate scenarios Use spatially referenced data to characterize spatial distributions of land use and management
New Developments in E-P Simulation Models Earlier models focused on ag-environment interactions at the field scale For analysis of semi-subsistence systems need whole farm analysis –Crop-livestock interactions –Poverty and food security indicators