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Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Rob Prosser.

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Presentation on theme: "Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Rob Prosser."— Presentation transcript:

1 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Rob Prosser

2 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. conditions slowest growth since 2000 Retail spending Take-home pay under pressure Household income growth hurt by rising rates Price deflation a drag on many categories “ The consumer isn’t consuming enough extra volume” 30% Household income spent on mortgage repayments, mortgage stress will affect many more HH as interest rates climb Consumers say they are paying down debt, and saving Credit card & credit applications down for 8 consecutive quarters Source: Retail spending: CITI Group; Credit Card: Veda Debt Agency

3 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. FLAT Q1 Q2 Q3 2.8% 1.3% 1.9% 2010 YTD (UNIT GROWTH 1.3%) Source: Nielsen Scantrack

4 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Pharmacy Convenience Liquor 2010 YTD Source: Nielsen Scantrack +5.0% Units +2.9% +0.3% Units -1.8% -0.3% Units -2.4%

5 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Household Goods Clothing/ Apparel Dept. Stores +0.6% Newspaper/ Books Restaurants/ Cafés/ Takeaways -0.9% -0.6% +2.8% +11.4% 2010 YTD Source: ABS

6 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey Consumer Confidence drives demand. Q3 has bounced back but recent announcements may flatten trend into Holiday season… GFC Consumer Confidence Index Q. At the moment, the time to buy the things I want is… +7.0% Australia Global

7 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Within key European markets we see the UK experiencing continued low levels of consumer sentiment. Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey

8 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Nominal growth-% change in value sales: Unit value change-% change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket (Val/ Vol): Volume change-% change in purchased volume (quantity) of products. Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Australia Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

9 New Zealand Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter

10 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The UK market struggling to grow volumes in the last two quarters. Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter

11 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The US market, pulling all the levers, but failing to grow consumption and value growth. Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter

12 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. China showing a strong recovery through 2010, with strong increases in consumption. Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter

13 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

14 How have Shopping habits changed? The Supermarket is increasingly becoming a big convenience store… Source: Nielsen Homescan Average Shopper repertoire now sits at 4 stores/ week! Grocery basket values down 5% year on year – Driven by reduction in items above $10, and an – increase in items below $5 Significant price compression Growth in ALDI usage Private Label penetration at 100% of Australian Households In NZ more than half of all grocery purchases are made on promotion – Australia is rising from the mid-thirties Source: Nielsen HomeScan; Nielsen Scantrack

15 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Rapid change in the name of the Shopper is the new mantra Nationally consistent pricing Focus on special offers and discounts Massive ‘Fresh Food’ emphasis Increased media spend Sustainability, Insurance… …and the list goes on

16 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Store Formats Supercenter Expansion Small Formats Green Formats Ethnic Formats Outdoor Malls Pop-Up Retailers Assortment & Services Self-Check-Out Health Clinics Food & Food Service Store Brands Better-For-You Solutions Online Gift Cards Communication Digital Media Social Media Smart Phone Apps In-Store Kiosks & TVs Promotion Coupon Renaissance Shopper Cards Fulfill Promise Fuel Savings Shopper Marketing Confused? – What about the Shopper?

17 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Source: Shopper Trends Survey Base: Q8a Which of these have you shopped at in in the Past 12 Months? All respondents n=1979 & Large Discount Stores Majors retailers are increasingly substitutable – Spot the difference! Expected to have a greater impact in the future as Australian shoppers learn where this type of retailer fits in within their repertoire of stores and start to have greater access to the stores

18 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Ranking of derived importance Store differentiation attributes: 2010 Globally consumers rank the most important attributes similarly. If it’s all about price… TOP FIVE Easy to quickly find what I need Always have what I want in stock High quality fresh food Pleasant store environment Has high quality brands 21 st Low prices “Provides Private label as a good alternative” Ranks above price Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)

19 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. While 28% of shoppers actively search for promotions in store, only 11% claim to change stores for a promotion. Promotion Sensitivity across Europe Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)

20 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Share of Claimed Shopper Visits (% of all visits) Increasingly, alternative channels are an important part of shoppers’ repertoire as they search for fresh, new and ‘value’. Source: Shopper Trends Survey, Floor space to fresh: Macquarie Equities Floor space allocated to Fresh 33% UP 13% 30% UP 12%

21 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Shopper Missions x Share of Shoppers (%) Supermarkets Woolworths and Coles are key grocery, meal and special event shopping channels. IGA are strongly positioning themselves as a provider of top up and emergency shops. (BIG convenience!). Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends Survey Base: Q14. Which of these stores have you shopped in the past 4 weeks for a…? Base: All respondents (n=1979)

22 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

23 What we do know … Retail Brands will keep on growing in search of margin Growth will neither slow down nor speed up = By-product of modern retail Retail Brands are not a product of economic panic Retail Brands are not a quick win Retail Brands have limited contribution to retailer equity Retail Brands will coexist with brands Price is not the irresistible differentiator Retail Brands win more on value than on price Retail Brands are not for low budget shoppers (actually the contrary)

24 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The Retail Brands reality is significant globally, mostly growing for Aus &NZ, 2009 for most countries (some of the smaller markets is 2008 data) Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)

25 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Retail Brands share: 8 years, 7 countries and 1944 categories Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)

26 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Retail Brands share: 8 years, 7 countries and 1944 categories 7.6% point gain 48% growth 4.5% point gain 16% growth 15.7% 23.3% Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)

27 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The faster you increase your store density per million population, the more you grow your share of trade, or do you? Share Of Trade More Stores Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)

28 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Number of stores per million inhabitants Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)

29 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. As we see the growth in Hard Discounter roll-out, convenience need not be at the expense of price. Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)

30 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Private Label Share 23.9 % Q3 ‘10 Source: Nielsen HomeScan

31 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Private Label Share 23.9 % Q3 ‘10 CategoryFood/ Non Food % PL Share of Category $ Share +/- vs YA Househol d Penetrati on +/- vs. YA $ AWOP +/- vs YA Party/PicnicNon Food Yogurt DrinksFood EggsFood Fresh MilkFood Fresh CreamFood BakeryFood Canned Vegetables Food Wraps and Containers Non Food Canned FruitFood OilsFood Top 10 Private Label Categories by Value Share (% of Category Dollars) QTR to 02/10/2010 vs. YA Source: Nielsen HomeScan Top 10 by Share NEW ENTRANT

32 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Private Label Share 23.9 % Q3 ‘10 Top 10 Private Label Categories by Actual Value Change QTR to 02/10/2010 vs. YA Source: Nielsen HomeScan Category Food/ Non Food % PL Share of Category $ Share +/- vs YA Househo ld Penetrati on +/- vs. YA $ AWOP +/- vs YA BakeryFood Toilet Paper/Towels Non Food Pet Food and Care Non Food SeafoodFood Ice CreamFood Frozen FishFood Frozen Meals Food Biscuits Food SoupFood ConfectioneryFood Top 10 by $ change NEW ENTRANT

33 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Key Takeouts… Australian retail is at it’s most competitive for more than a decade. Driven by – Resurgent Coles / Growth of ALDI / Changing ethnographies All majors now have a relentless focus on the Shopper – Customer centricity is the new mantra – Retailers are restructuring business units to cope Current retailer strategies have had mixed results – Increasing uncertainty as to how to differentiate the offer – ‘Tit for tat’ marketing has amplified - stagnant share growth – ALDI continues to baffle the majors – how to compete? Is PL the answer? Blurring of channels is an increasing reality – Driving cross channel visitation up – Driving baskets down – Impacting loyalty to specific banners Next 12 months will be even more intensive as ALDI ramps up expansion, Coles open more than 100 new / refurbished stores and price discounting intensifies and what constitutes Convenience is continually re-stated…

34 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. from The Nielsen Team and Good Trading

35 Appendix

36 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. PL share has of Supermarkets has increased in the latest QTR, with growth seen in spend of $3.42 compared to QTR last year

37 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Coles Group has seen an increase in retailer share in the latest QTR and IGA remains stable Q Nielsen Private Label Report

38 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Aldi has grown by +0.6 points in Household reach in the latest QTR vs. last year and has gained share of the market. Q Nielsen Private Label Report

39 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The share of PL in Coles grew by +0.5points vs. last year. Driven by increase in spend in the latest QTR, penetration was also in growth Q Nielsen Private Label Report

40 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Woolworths has gained share of PL vs. QTR YA, this has been due to increase in households buying in WW coupled with increasing spend Q Nielsen Private Label Report

41 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. IGA share of PL is higher than YA share; driven by increase in buyer spend, though HH’s buying has reduced Q Nielsen Private Label Report

42 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. FoodWorks continues to lose share of PL vs. YA with a large decline in spend while household reach has increased. Q Nielsen Private Label Report

43 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Independent Singles have increased their spend on PL in the last year. Young Transitional have increased their share spend on PL substantially QTR on QTR in the last year.

44 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Market Share of Discounters in Europe


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