1. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA The Global Warming-Extreme Weather link: Media Hype or Climate Realty? Madhav Khandekar Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change

2. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Are EW events on the rise?  A short answer: NO!  A Long answer: NO! NO! NO!  EW events have always occurred in the earth’s climate!  Present concern re: EW/Global Warming (GW) link is more media hype than reality!

3. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA IPCC vs NIPCC  IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; A UN Body of scientists (mostly working with various national governments) established in 1988: IPCC has issued climate change documents since 1990.  NIPCC: Nongovernmental International Panel on climate change (several dozen scientists & specialists in various fields) established in 2007: First comprehensive report in 2009

4. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Mechanics of extreme weather (EW)  IPCC View Warmer climate holds more moisture: more rains & floods in some areas; droughts/heat waves in other areas. Warmer climate holds more moisture: more rains & floods in some areas; droughts/heat waves in other areas. More intense Trop Cyclones Increase in extreme rainfall events Decrease in cool days/night and frost in Mid-latitudes EW are on the rise now due to warming of climate.  NIPPC View Extreme weather is an integral part of earth’s climate: have occurred throughout recorded history of climate. ENSO phases can and do cause EW events world-wide Intense interaction between high-lat. cold air with low-lat. warm air produces EW events regionally/locally Present ‘increase’ in EW is perception than reality !

5. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA IPCC 2007 Table of Extreme Weather Events

6. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Media Hype about global warming & Impacts

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13. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Global Mean Temperature Trend

14. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA IPCC 2007

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16. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA U.K Met office data

17. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Heat Waves: Highest worldwide temperatures

18. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Heat Waves: North America & Elsewhere  North America witnessed recurring heat waves in 1920s and 1930s! Highest max temperatures in the 1920s 1930s!  2012 US summer heat-wave was ‘mild” compared to those of 1930s!  Summer 2003 Western Europe heat-wave was extreme; Dry soil moisture conditions were responsible ( NIPPC post 7 March 2012)  Moscow heat-wave summer 2010 was due to atmospheric blocking (NIPPC post 13 July 2011)  Pre-Monsoon (April-May) heat waves over India are common & exhibit inter-annual variability  Heat waves over Australia linked to ENSO phases  2013 July heat wave over China was due to drying of soil moisture

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20. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Deadliest heat wave in Canada; 1100 people died July 1936

21. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Highest Recorded Temperatures  World’s highest: 57.8C (136F) Libya 13 Sept 1922  Canada’s highest:45C Saskatchewan Canadian Prairies, July 1937: Toronto highest 41C July 1936  US highest: 56.7C (134F) California 10 July 1913  Highest on Indian subcontinent: ~128F NW India, 1930s  Highest in China: 43.4C Central China 1 September 2006

22. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Thunderstorms & Tornadoes  Highest thunderstorm/tornado activity in US during 1920s thru 1940s  Deadliest tornado outbreak: 18 March 1925: 747 dead in 3 mid-western States  April 5 1936: 216 deaths in Mississippi  Largest 2-day outbreak; 3-4 April 1974, over 140 tornadoes  The Oklahoma tornado (May 22 2013) was due to a cold-air outbreak, resulting in a sharp temperature change, producing intense tornado with several deaths

23. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Improved monitoring technology may have led to higher tornado count in recent years

24. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Hurricanes, Typhoons & Tropical Cyclones  Hurricanes in North Atlantic & Typhoons in Western Pacific show inter-decadal variability, with NO long-term trend!  Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones show inter-annual variability; NO trend!  Elsewhere (Australia, South Indian Ocean) NO long-term trend!

25. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation  Rapid warm-up in the Atlantic in 1995 brought an immediate doubling in number hurricanes and major hurricanes (back to where we were in 1930s to 1960s)  It is the basis of forecasts by Dr. Bill Gray (CSU) and others of enhanced activity for another decade or so

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28. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Extreme Precipitation  Precipitation extremes have occurred irregularly in various regions without being forced by AGW!  Extreme precipitation often linked to tropical cyclones/hurricanes: Also in monsoonal climate  Highest 24-hr: 18Jan1966; 182cm (south Indian Ocean: TC-Hyacinthe)  Highest one month: July 1861 930cm (Cherrapunji India)  Highest one year: 1860-61 2647cm (Cherrapunji India)  Recent studies on “human link to extreme rainfall” are without any merit! (rainfall amounts only ~50-150mm locally: UK, Europe, North America)

29. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Droughts-floods & ENSO  Warm events (El Nino) in the equatorial Pacific brings summer rains over US/Canadian Prairies  Cold events ( La Nina) linked with drier summer on the Prairies.  El Nino/La Nina linked to droughts/floods in Indian summer monsoon  ENSO and PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation produce dry/wet conditions over eastern Australia, Indonesia, southeast China and eastern Africa.  ENSO is the single largest cause of global extreme precipitation events

30. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Mostly El Ninos Mostly La Ninas PDO COLD MODEPDO WARM MODE Wolter

31. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA The 1997/98 El Nino structure at about Sep 1997

32. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Prairie drought-wet cycles  1978-80 Wet Cycle  1987-89 Drought Cycle  1992-94 Wet  2001-03 Drought  2005-2010 Wet Wet Cycle on the Canadian Prairies Continues at present: Wet Cycle on the Canadian Prairies Continues at present:

33. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA 33 Meteorological Drought Meteorological drought conditions for September 2001- August 2002 (a). Areas in red are record dry conditions. Contrast with conditions observed September 2005 – August 2006 (b).

34. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Major floods/droughts in Indian summer monsoon (1813-2010)  FLOODS  1818 (1036 mm)  1861 (1051 mm)  1874 (1033 mm)  1878 (1039 mm)  1892 (1050 mm)  1894 (1032 mm)  1916 (1034 mm)  1917 (1079 mm)  1933 (1042 mm)  1942 (1037 mm)  1956 (1007 mm)  1961 (1088 mm)  1971 (1002 mm)  1988 (1047 mm)  DROUGHTS  1823 (795 mm)  1824 (770 mm)  1832 (775 mm)  1840 (774 mm)  1844 (788 mm)  1848 (688 mm)  1851 (744 mm)  1860 (733 cm)  1864 (748 mm)  1868 (777 mm)  1877 (609 mm)  1899 (695 mm)  1918 (661 mm)  1920 (786 mm)  1941 (785 mm)  1965 (741 mm)  1972 (708 mm)  1979 (723 mm)  1982 (788 mm)  1986 (780 mm)  1987 (739 mm)  2002 (715 mm)  2009 (698 mm) Mean 1041mm Mean 739 mm Heaviest flood Worst drought

35. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Severe Drought

36. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Floods in Pakistan and NW India

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38. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Recent Cold Weather Extremes  Winter 2013/14 was one of the coldest, longest and snowiest over Canada and most of Conterminous US!  Winter 2012/13: Extremely cold over most of Europe: March 2013 broke several cold weather records! January 2013 was very cold over most of North and central India!  Winter 2011/12: Coldest February 2012 in eastern Europe! Low temperature -40C and below in some localized regions!  Winter 2009/10: Very cold over eastern & central Europe: several deaths in eastern Europe & Germany: Heavy snow caused several transportation disruptions in Central Europe: Siberia suffered its coldest winter ever! Several hundred deaths in Northern India due to long exposure to cold weather!  Winter 2007/08: snowiest winter in Northern Hemisphere since 1966: Sea Ice between Greenland & eastern Canada was highest in 15 years. Heavy snow in China! Buenos Aires (SA) recorded several cm of snow (July 2007) after 85 years!  Winter 2005/06: Very Cold most of Europe!  Winter 2002/03: Severe cold in eastern Europe, 200 deaths in Poland: Several hundred deaths in Bangladesh & Vietnam, January 2003!

39. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Notable EW events of 1945-1977 (when mean temperature declined)  1961 summer monsoon over India: Heaviest floods everywhere! Also East Pakistan (Now Bangladesh) witnessed two powerful cyclones in May! Over 20,000 deaths India & Pakistan!  Winter 1962-63: One of the Coldest over most of Europe! Rivers in central Europe frozen for weeks!  August 1969: Hurricane Camille (category 4-5) struck US Gulf Coast killing over 250 people!  November 1970: tropical cyclone hit Bangladesh killing over 250,000 people! Largest human fatalities in ONE SINGLE WEATHER DISASTER  April 2-3 1974: largest (147) outbreak of tornadoes in US Mid- west ever! Over 250 deaths; property damage over US$ 1 billion  December 1976-January 1977: Very cold over most of North America! Southeast US witnessed long cold winter

40. July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Summary & Conclusions  EW events are integral part of earth’s climate. Recent perceived increase in EW events is due to media hype!  Heat waves, droughts, floods etc have occurred in the past, without being triggered by Global Warming! NO increasing trend in heat waves, droughts etc at present!  Hurricanes, tropical cyclones are NOT increasing in strength NOR in frequency at present.  Intense tornado frequency in US has NOT increased, more tornado being recorded today due to improved detection and monitoring.  Indian/Asian Monsoon droughts and floods have occurred irregularly! NO increase/decrease in Monsoon droughts/ floods in recent years. World-wide droughts show NO change in last 60 years!  Cold Weather Extremes have increased in recent years worldwide, contrary to IPCC projection.  EW (cold or warm) will continue to occur in future! Need to develop better resilience to cope with future EW events!