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July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA The Global Warming-Extreme Weather link: Media Hype or Climate Realty? Madhav Khandekar Expert.

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Presentation on theme: "July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA The Global Warming-Extreme Weather link: Media Hype or Climate Realty? Madhav Khandekar Expert."— Presentation transcript:

1 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA The Global Warming-Extreme Weather link: Media Hype or Climate Realty? Madhav Khandekar Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change

2 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Are EW events on the rise?  A short answer: NO!  A Long answer: NO! NO! NO!  EW events have always occurred in the earth’s climate!  Present concern re: EW/Global Warming (GW) link is more media hype than reality!

3 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA IPCC vs NIPCC  IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; A UN Body of scientists (mostly working with various national governments) established in 1988: IPCC has issued climate change documents since  NIPCC: Nongovernmental International Panel on climate change (several dozen scientists & specialists in various fields) established in 2007: First comprehensive report in 2009

4 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Mechanics of extreme weather (EW)  IPCC View Warmer climate holds more moisture: more rains & floods in some areas; droughts/heat waves in other areas. Warmer climate holds more moisture: more rains & floods in some areas; droughts/heat waves in other areas. More intense Trop Cyclones Increase in extreme rainfall events Decrease in cool days/night and frost in Mid-latitudes EW are on the rise now due to warming of climate.  NIPPC View Extreme weather is an integral part of earth’s climate: have occurred throughout recorded history of climate. ENSO phases can and do cause EW events world-wide Intense interaction between high-lat. cold air with low-lat. warm air produces EW events regionally/locally Present ‘increase’ in EW is perception than reality !

5 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA IPCC 2007 Table of Extreme Weather Events

6 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Media Hype about global warming & Impacts

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13 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Global Mean Temperature Trend

14 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA IPCC 2007

15 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA

16 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA U.K Met office data

17 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Heat Waves: Highest worldwide temperatures

18 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Heat Waves: North America & Elsewhere  North America witnessed recurring heat waves in 1920s and 1930s! Highest max temperatures in the 1920s 1930s!  2012 US summer heat-wave was ‘mild” compared to those of 1930s!  Summer 2003 Western Europe heat-wave was extreme; Dry soil moisture conditions were responsible ( NIPPC post 7 March 2012)  Moscow heat-wave summer 2010 was due to atmospheric blocking (NIPPC post 13 July 2011)  Pre-Monsoon (April-May) heat waves over India are common & exhibit inter-annual variability  Heat waves over Australia linked to ENSO phases  2013 July heat wave over China was due to drying of soil moisture

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20 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Deadliest heat wave in Canada; 1100 people died July 1936

21 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Highest Recorded Temperatures  World’s highest: 57.8C (136F) Libya 13 Sept 1922  Canada’s highest:45C Saskatchewan Canadian Prairies, July 1937: Toronto highest 41C July 1936  US highest: 56.7C (134F) California 10 July 1913  Highest on Indian subcontinent: ~128F NW India, 1930s  Highest in China: 43.4C Central China 1 September 2006

22 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Thunderstorms & Tornadoes  Highest thunderstorm/tornado activity in US during 1920s thru 1940s  Deadliest tornado outbreak: 18 March 1925: 747 dead in 3 mid-western States  April : 216 deaths in Mississippi  Largest 2-day outbreak; 3-4 April 1974, over 140 tornadoes  The Oklahoma tornado (May ) was due to a cold-air outbreak, resulting in a sharp temperature change, producing intense tornado with several deaths

23 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Improved monitoring technology may have led to higher tornado count in recent years

24 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Hurricanes, Typhoons & Tropical Cyclones  Hurricanes in North Atlantic & Typhoons in Western Pacific show inter-decadal variability, with NO long-term trend!  Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones show inter-annual variability; NO trend!  Elsewhere (Australia, South Indian Ocean) NO long-term trend!

25 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation  Rapid warm-up in the Atlantic in 1995 brought an immediate doubling in number hurricanes and major hurricanes (back to where we were in 1930s to 1960s)  It is the basis of forecasts by Dr. Bill Gray (CSU) and others of enhanced activity for another decade or so

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28 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Extreme Precipitation  Precipitation extremes have occurred irregularly in various regions without being forced by AGW!  Extreme precipitation often linked to tropical cyclones/hurricanes: Also in monsoonal climate  Highest 24-hr: 18Jan1966; 182cm (south Indian Ocean: TC-Hyacinthe)  Highest one month: July cm (Cherrapunji India)  Highest one year: cm (Cherrapunji India)  Recent studies on “human link to extreme rainfall” are without any merit! (rainfall amounts only ~50-150mm locally: UK, Europe, North America)

29 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Droughts-floods & ENSO  Warm events (El Nino) in the equatorial Pacific brings summer rains over US/Canadian Prairies  Cold events ( La Nina) linked with drier summer on the Prairies.  El Nino/La Nina linked to droughts/floods in Indian summer monsoon  ENSO and PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation produce dry/wet conditions over eastern Australia, Indonesia, southeast China and eastern Africa.  ENSO is the single largest cause of global extreme precipitation events

30 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Mostly El Ninos Mostly La Ninas PDO COLD MODEPDO WARM MODE Wolter

31 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA The 1997/98 El Nino structure at about Sep 1997

32 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Prairie drought-wet cycles  Wet Cycle  Drought Cycle  Wet  Drought  Wet Wet Cycle on the Canadian Prairies Continues at present: Wet Cycle on the Canadian Prairies Continues at present:

33 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA 33 Meteorological Drought Meteorological drought conditions for September August 2002 (a). Areas in red are record dry conditions. Contrast with conditions observed September 2005 – August 2006 (b).

34 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Major floods/droughts in Indian summer monsoon ( )  FLOODS  1818 (1036 mm)  1861 (1051 mm)  1874 (1033 mm)  1878 (1039 mm)  1892 (1050 mm)  1894 (1032 mm)  1916 (1034 mm)  1917 (1079 mm)  1933 (1042 mm)  1942 (1037 mm)  1956 (1007 mm)  1961 (1088 mm)  1971 (1002 mm)  1988 (1047 mm)  DROUGHTS  1823 (795 mm)  1824 (770 mm)  1832 (775 mm)  1840 (774 mm)  1844 (788 mm)  1848 (688 mm)  1851 (744 mm)  1860 (733 cm)  1864 (748 mm)  1868 (777 mm)  1877 (609 mm)  1899 (695 mm)  1918 (661 mm)  1920 (786 mm)  1941 (785 mm)  1965 (741 mm)  1972 (708 mm)  1979 (723 mm)  1982 (788 mm)  1986 (780 mm)  1987 (739 mm)  2002 (715 mm)  2009 (698 mm) Mean 1041mm Mean 739 mm Heaviest flood Worst drought

35 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Severe Drought

36 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Floods in Pakistan and NW India

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38 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Recent Cold Weather Extremes  Winter 2013/14 was one of the coldest, longest and snowiest over Canada and most of Conterminous US!  Winter 2012/13: Extremely cold over most of Europe: March 2013 broke several cold weather records! January 2013 was very cold over most of North and central India!  Winter 2011/12: Coldest February 2012 in eastern Europe! Low temperature -40C and below in some localized regions!  Winter 2009/10: Very cold over eastern & central Europe: several deaths in eastern Europe & Germany: Heavy snow caused several transportation disruptions in Central Europe: Siberia suffered its coldest winter ever! Several hundred deaths in Northern India due to long exposure to cold weather!  Winter 2007/08: snowiest winter in Northern Hemisphere since 1966: Sea Ice between Greenland & eastern Canada was highest in 15 years. Heavy snow in China! Buenos Aires (SA) recorded several cm of snow (July 2007) after 85 years!  Winter 2005/06: Very Cold most of Europe!  Winter 2002/03: Severe cold in eastern Europe, 200 deaths in Poland: Several hundred deaths in Bangladesh & Vietnam, January 2003!

39 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Notable EW events of (when mean temperature declined)  1961 summer monsoon over India: Heaviest floods everywhere! Also East Pakistan (Now Bangladesh) witnessed two powerful cyclones in May! Over 20,000 deaths India & Pakistan!  Winter : One of the Coldest over most of Europe! Rivers in central Europe frozen for weeks!  August 1969: Hurricane Camille (category 4-5) struck US Gulf Coast killing over 250 people!  November 1970: tropical cyclone hit Bangladesh killing over 250,000 people! Largest human fatalities in ONE SINGLE WEATHER DISASTER  April : largest (147) outbreak of tornadoes in US Mid- west ever! Over 250 deaths; property damage over US$ 1 billion  December 1976-January 1977: Very cold over most of North America! Southeast US witnessed long cold winter

40 July 7-9, 2014 Climate change Conference Las Vegas, USA Summary & Conclusions  EW events are integral part of earth’s climate. Recent perceived increase in EW events is due to media hype!  Heat waves, droughts, floods etc have occurred in the past, without being triggered by Global Warming! NO increasing trend in heat waves, droughts etc at present!  Hurricanes, tropical cyclones are NOT increasing in strength NOR in frequency at present.  Intense tornado frequency in US has NOT increased, more tornado being recorded today due to improved detection and monitoring.  Indian/Asian Monsoon droughts and floods have occurred irregularly! NO increase/decrease in Monsoon droughts/ floods in recent years. World-wide droughts show NO change in last 60 years!  Cold Weather Extremes have increased in recent years worldwide, contrary to IPCC projection.  EW (cold or warm) will continue to occur in future! Need to develop better resilience to cope with future EW events!


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