Neither yesterday’s nor today’s forecast Properly captures the strong Caribbean Convection. Note lack of northward flow And convergence in Pacific ITCZ
Forecast for 18Z has very little Caribbean Convection.
GEOS-5 Forecast vs. GOES 12 IR for Z
Low level satellite winds for show Southward, not northward flow over Pacific South of ITCZ (weak)
Strong Caribbean convection (sequence of WV pictures Ends with this one) moistens air as it comes across through The Caribbean.
700 mb evolution View the pdf of NMC forecasts for 700 mb View the animation of the GMAO 700mb RH -- bin3/tc4_wxmaps.cgi Dry air to the east is moistened by all the Caribbean convection. GMAO is moister over us than the GFS
ITCZ Forecast to reform, with strong convergence On Tuesday
GMAO model shows the same basic picture for ITCZ
Cloud Temperatures from Leslie’s plots Suggest colder stronger convection On Wednesday than Tuesday
Winds projected to strengthen (easterlies) By Tuesday. Conditions projected to Dry out by Wednesday.
Summary Wave passage has perturbed ITCZ more than forecast yesterday, with very weak convergence in the Pacific. Caribbean convection much stronger than forecast by all models. Caribbean convection moistens mid-level air as it approaches, resulting in moist air over us for a few days (removing dust?). ITCZ forecast to reform by Tuesday, may have colder convection by Wednesday Air over us forecast to be dryer by Wednesday