1. Weather Briefing, 20070713 Current situation Convection and cloud forecasts through Sunday Local forecast through Monday Mesoscale Model products

15. Tomorrow afternoon condition

18. This is the wind graph in 925 mb of model GFS. The graphic shows the weakening of the easterly winds in next the two days. Allowing the entrance of the WEST wind which brings the humidity of the Pacific Ocean and allows the development of deep convection in the Valley. Is high probably showers in the afternoon today and tomorrow. Tomorrow morning we don’t expected rain in the airport. The deep convection is expected over Panama and little decrease of the convection over the east cost of Nicaragua.

19. Summary Current situation: Active convection in the region in both Nicaragua and the Panama bight associated with strong low level jet, Panama low, and southerly low level flow in the Pacific. Regional Convection Outlook: Expect continued strong activity for the next two days in the region. Reduced activity over Nicaragua by Sunday. Expect Panama bight convection tomorrow and Sunday.

20. Summary (cont) Galapagos clouds -- expect reduced chance of stratus in the next few days Comment on forecasting thick cirrus. NCEP precipitation product may be better than NCEP high cloud product. Local forecast for today -- early wind shift and significant convection developing at the airport by 2 PM

21. Summary (cont) Tomorrow: Dynamics favorable for convection. No rain at the airport at ER-2 landing, but significant convection and rain at the airport starting at midday Sunday and Monday: Progressively stronger easterlies are forecast through these two days, indicating later wind shifts and reduced convection and rain at the airport. Monday is a good day for flying!!

22. Summary (cont) CIGEFI Model agree with forecasts in terms of today’s PM precip and favorable conditions for landing tomorrow. Afternoon convection forecast for tomorrow due to tropical wave passage.