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William H. Frey The Brookings Institution April 23, 2013 America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers and Emerging Cultural Gaps.

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Presentation on theme: "William H. Frey The Brookings Institution April 23, 2013 America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers and Emerging Cultural Gaps."— Presentation transcript:

1 William H. Frey The Brookings Institution April 23, 2013 America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers and Emerging Cultural Gaps

2 Source: William H. Frey analysis US: Population by Race: 2000 and % 46.6%

3 Source: William H. Frey analysis US: Population by Age: 2000 and % 21.0%

4 Source: William H. Frey analysis Race Ethnic Shares 2010 Population Growth

5 Source: William H. Frey analysis Median Ages of Race-Ethnic Groups

6 Source: William H. Frey analysis US Adult and Child Populations, Adults Children

7 Source: William H. Frey analysis Change in Child Population by Race-Ethnicity

8 Source: William H. Frey analysis New Demographic Regions n Melting Pot America n The New Sunbelt n The Heartland

9 Source: William H. Frey analysis Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

10 Source: William H. Frey analysis Native Born 37% Foreign Born 66% Spanish at Home 72% Asian Language at Home 65% Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States

11 Source: William H. Frey analysis Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000) Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000)

12 Source: William H. Frey analysis Born in Same State GT 63% LT 63%

13 Source: William H. Frey analysis Domestic Migration Magnets, Phoenix530,579 2 Riverside, CA 457,430 3Atlanta412,832 4Dallas307,907 5 Las Vegas 299,027 6Tampa254,650 7Charlotte243,399 8Houston242,573

14 Source: William H. Frey analysis Immigrant Magnet Metros, New York 1,079,016 2 Los Angeles 803, ,614 3Miami 506, ,423 4 Chicago 363, ,134 5Dallas 323, ,941 6 Washington DC 310, ,222 7Houston 289, ,648 8 San Francisco 257, ,318

15 Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, New York -1,920,745 2 Los Angeles -1,337,522 3Chicago-547,430 4Detroit-361,632 5 San Francisco -343,834 6 New Orleans - 298,721 7Miami-284,860 8 San Jose -233,133

16 Source: William H. Frey analysis _______ ________ _____ _______ ________ _____ Greatest Immigrant Growth

17 Source: William H. Frey analysis Migration Slowdown to

18 Source: William H. Frey analysis Race –Ethnic Profiles of Regions 2010 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

19 Source: William H. Frey analysis Hispanic Concentrations 2010 Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010 Percent of County Population

20 Source: William H. Frey analysis Largest Hispanic Gains StateGains 1California3,047,163 2Texas2,791,255 3Florida1,541,091 4Arizona599,532 5New York549,339 6Illinois497,316 7New Jersey437,953 8North Carolina421,157

21 Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest Hispanic Growth Rates StateGrowth 1 South Carolina 148% 2Alabama145% 3Tennessee134% 4Kentucky122% 5Arkansas114% 6 North Carolina 111% 7Maryland106% 8Mississippi106%

22 Source: William H. Frey analysis Asian Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

23 Source: William H. Frey analysis Largest Asian Gains StateGains 1California1,126,210 2Texas393,981 3 New York 370,268 4 New Jersey 242,815 5Florida183,523 6Virginia177,021 7Illinois160,670 8Washington156,233

24 Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest Asian Growth Rates StateGrowth 1Nevada116% 2 North Dakota 92% 3Arizona91% 4 North Carolina 84% 5Georgia82% 6Arkansas79% 7 New Hampshire 79% 8Delaware76%

25 Source: William H. Frey analysis Black Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

26 Source: William H. Frey analysis Largest Black Gains StateGains 1Florida586,832 2Georgia579,335 3Texas522,570 4 North Carolina 296,553 5Maryland209,494 6Virginia147,326 7Pennsylvania124,654 8Tennessee121,187

27 Source: William H. Frey analysis White Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

28 Source: William H. Frey analysis Largest White Gains StateGains 1North Carolina576,840 2Texas464,032 3Florida426,213 4Arizona421,389 5Colorado317,913 6Utah317,454 7South Carolina310,449 8Tennessee294,852

29 Source: William H. Frey analysis Largest White Losses StateLosses 1California-860,537 2New York-456,734 3New Jersey-342,331 4Illinois-256,387 5Michigan-236,752 6Pennsylvania-227,803 7Massachusetts-213,559 8Ohio-178,848

30 Source: William H. Frey analysis Metro-NonMetro Race Changes,

31 Source: William H. Frey analysis City and Suburb Populations, Cities Suburbs

32 Source: William H. Frey analysis Change in City and Suburb Population by Race/Ethnicity

33 Source: William H. Frey analysis City Suburb Race-Ethnic Profiles Selected Metros Los Angeles AtlantaDetroit

34 Source: William H. Frey analysis

35 Cities with Greatest Black Losses CityBlack Loss 1Detroit-185,393 2Chicago-181,453 3New York-100,859 4Los Angeles-54,606 5Washington DC-39,035 6Oakland-33,502 7Cleveland-33,304 8Atlanta-29,746

36 Source: William H. Frey analysis Metro Residents Living in Suburbs

37 Source: William H. Frey analysis US Growth by Age

38 Source: William H. Frey analysis State Growth in Child Population*, Under age 18 Growth 5% and over Growth under 5% Decline under 5% Decline 5% and over

39 Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent Minority Children, 2010 GT 50% 40% - 50% 25% - 40% Under 25%

40 Source: William H. Frey analysis

41 Percent Children with Immigrant Parents 51% 35% 34% 32% 31% 23%

42 Source: William H. Frey analysis Children Speaking Other than English * Ages GT 20% 10% - 20% 6% - 10% Under 6%

43 Source: William H. Frey analysis English Proficiency- Children and Adults Source: William H Frey analysisSource: William H Frey analysis

44 Source: William H. Frey analysis Education by Race-Ethnicity Pew Hispanic Center

45 Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: Pew Research Center HS Dropout Rates: Hispanics Age 16-24

46 Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent College Graduates for States GT 30% 25% -30% Under 25%

47 Source: William H. Frey analysis Largest Percent College Grads 1 Washington DC 47% 2 San Jose 45% 3Bridgeport44% 443% 5Madison43% 6Boston43% 7Raleigh41% 8Austin39% 9Denver38% 10Minn-St.Paul38% AlaskaAlaska San Francisco

48 Source: William H. Frey analysis Ratio of College Grads to High School Dropouts 3.0 and above 2.0 – 3.0 Below 2.0

49 Source: William H. Frey analysis US Growth by Age

50 Source: William H. Frey analysis Median Ages for States, and over 38 to to 38 Below 36

51 Source: William H. Frey analysis Age 65 + Growth GT 25% 15% -25% 10% -15% under 10%

52 Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest 65+ Growth, Raleigh60% 2Austin53% 3 Las Vegas 50% 446% 5Atlanta44% 6Provo42% 7 Colorado Springs 40% 8Houston39% 9Dallas38% 10Charlotte36% AlaskaAlaska Boise City

53 Source: William H. Frey analysis Population Changes in the First Three Decades, 21 st Century ( )(75 +) Source: William H. Frey

54 Source: William H. Frey analysis 140% & above 100% -139% 70% -99% under 69% Projected Age 65+ Growth , US States

55 Source: William H. Frey analysis Projected Age 65+ Growth, FloridaCaliforniaNew York percent growth

56 Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent Age 65+, Central and Suburban Counties, Projected : Selected Metro Areas Source: William H. Frey analysis ChicagoLos AnglosNew YorkPhiladelphia

57 Source: William H. Frey analysis Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife

58 Source: William H. Frey analysis Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, ChildrenSeniors whiteBlackAsian/OtherHispanic

59 Source: William H. Frey analysis Contributions to Labor Force Growth (in millions)

60 Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: US

61 Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: California

62 Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: Minnesota

63 Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: Arizona

64 Source: William H. Frey analysis Racial Generation Gaps Difference in White Percent: Seniors minus Children 25 and above 20 to to 20 Below 15

65 Source: William H. Frey analysis State Growth, Below 0% 0% -4% 5% - 9% 10% - 20% 20% +

66 Source: William H. Frey analysis Changes in Congressional Seats from 2010 Census

67 Source: William H. Frey analysis Hispanic Share of Population, 2010 Below 5% 5% - 9% 10% - 19% 20% - 34% 35%+

68 Source: William H. Frey analysis Hispanic Percent of Growth in States Gaining Seats from 2010 Census


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