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The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting Opening Address Peter Mora Chair, Research Committee, ACcESS MNRF Executive Director, ACES Director, QUAKES.

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Presentation on theme: "The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting Opening Address Peter Mora Chair, Research Committee, ACcESS MNRF Executive Director, ACES Director, QUAKES."— Presentation transcript:

1 The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting Opening Address Peter Mora Chair, Research Committee, ACcESS MNRF Executive Director, ACES Director, QUAKES

2 The scientific debate “... small earthquake have some probability of cascading into a large event …” Geller et al “Earthquake prediction is difficult but not impossible, …” Knopoff The problem “No satisfactory theory of the earthquake source process exists at present”, Geller

3 1.To develop realistic numerical simulation models 2.To foster collaboration 3.To foster development of infrastructure & programs The APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES) Develop a unified simulation model for earthquake generation and earthquake cycles

4 Multi-scale simulator Spatial Scale, m Time scale, sec. Spatial Scale, m Time scale, sec.

5 Outcomes Simulation models –3 x 2 volume journal issues + 3 proceedings Collaboration –Earthquake physics & catastrophic failure –Simulation models and software –Australia, China, Japan, USA visitors & collab programs (30+ visits, joint publications) Infrastructure –GEM, ServoGrid, QuakeSim –Earth Simulator, GeoFEM –Key national program for catastroophic failure –ACcESS MNRF

6 Japan GeoFEM: Premier large-scale finite-element software platform for solid earth simulation Earth Simulator: The world’s fastest supercomputer Solid Earth Simulator Project: Forefront macro-scale research Subduction zone dynamics, crustal activity and strong motion Mantle and core dynamics Courtesy of Okuda, Matsu’ura and Matsui

7 China Fracture physics, mesoscopic damage models, intraplate observations Courtesy of Yin, Xia and Bai

8 USA Simulation of the CA interacting fault system Courtesy of Rundle, Donnellan and Olsen

9 Australia Micro-models Earthquake physics and dynamics Crustal & mantle models

10 The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS) Major National Research Facility A multi-scale multi-physics ESS Achieve a holistic virtual earth simulation capability Provide a computational virtual earth serving Australia’s national needs One of two science Major National Research Facilities being established in Australia Develop software & models, and establish thematic supercomputer needed for research outcomes

11 Multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary Queensland (MNRF HQ) Micro-models, LSMearth software Comp. ES, earthquakes QUAKES Western Australia Nonlinear rheologies, geodynamics Comp. mech, mining, Solid Mech, CSIRO; UWA Victoria ACRC/Mon, VPAC, Melb, RMIT Geology, tectonics reconstruction Min. exploration, SE/Vis/IT Particle Models … Communication Substrate Continuum Models Data Assimilation Post Processing Visualisation Observ’s Theory Computational Virtual earth laboratory

12 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics

13 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics

14 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust (Muhlhaus and Weatherley) Earth dynamics

15 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics

16 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics

17 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics (Mora and Place)

18 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics

19 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics (Mora and Place)

20 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics

21 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics (Sandiford)

22 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics

23 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics (Moresi and Muhlhaus)

24 hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere shield volcano strato volcano trench convergent plate boundary convergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge divergent plate boundary transform plate boundary island arc continental crust oceanic crust Earth dynamics BENEFITS Planetary scale minerals exploration predictive capacity for regional scale crustal deformation and mineralisation vastly improved scientific underpinning for natural & human-induced geohazard mitigation and prevention virtual prototyping innovations of massive or national scale natural and engineered systems a potential for high-tech spin-offs involving novel mining and materials engineering technologies

25 Super-Computer Capacity Software framework Software Type 1 Software Type 2 Software Type 3 Software Independent Problem Formulation (Geometric & Mathematical) Database 1 Thermodynamic Database 2 Rock property Interface (translator) Interface (translator) Interface (translator) Inversion Software (Complex System Science) Interface Template Thinking / Selling Tool (most parameters set) NON- EXPERT USER Parameter Setting Interface (input) Visualisation Interface (input / output) EXPERT USER

26 Management structure GEOTALKL. Gross (UQ) PARTICLE & EXPLICITDATA ASSIMILATIONCONTINUUM CHAIR RESEARCH COMMITTEE Peter Mora MODEL & SOFTWARE CONSTRUCTION Muhlhaus, Appelbe, Gross CHAIR Mike Etheridge ACcESS BOARD DATA ASSIMILATION & SURFACE PROCESSES Lister & Applebe CEO TBA Short TermLong Term D. Weatherly UQ D.I. & H.X. UQ S. Abe UQ CELLULAR AUTOMATA CRUSTAL DYNAMICS EXPLICIT SIM. PLATFORM P. A-Epping / P.Hornby CSIRO MINERALISATION H. Muhlhaus UQ PLATE MANTLE A. Dyskin UWA MULTISCALE MODELLING M. Sandiford Melb. Uni. G. Lister, L. Ailleress Monash SURFACE PROCESSES VIRTUAL EARTH

27 Vision for future solid earth systems science Advances in understanding solid earth physics, numerical simulation methodology & supercomputer technology are bringing the vision within reach A predictive capability for solid earth system dynamics Observns Model Analysis Computational Virtual earth laboratory c.f. GCM’s

28 Next steps Integrate software developments and computational environments/algorithms Ramp-up of national programs to capture benefits of investment in research infrastructure Enhance supercomputers and connectivity Strengthen international collaboration and establish large scale programatic research - international institute in two years time frame iSERVO Institute International Solid Earth Research Virtual Earth Institute

29 Simulation A powerful tool to fuel breakthroughs Observn’s Model Analysis Computational Virtual earth laboratory

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