Presentation on theme: "Project and Risk Management Techniques in NPD Burçin Ağan Mesut Korkut Sabri Dönmez Seda Leblebici."— Presentation transcript:
Project and Risk Management Techniques in NPD Burçin Ağan Mesut Korkut Sabri Dönmez Seda Leblebici
What is Project Management? “Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities in order to meet or exceed stakeholder needs and expectations.”
Today, Modern Project Management has emerged as a premier solution in business operations. Large and small organizations recognize that a structured approach to planning and controlling projects is a necessary core competency for success. International organizations such as the Project Management Institute(PMI) and the International Project Management Association (IPMA) promote project management by providing professional development. Project Management Today
Has a goal/meets a need Is a set of related activities that are nonrecurring Has a definite beginning and end Has clearly defined goals and deliverables Consumes resources Needs to be managed Project Characteristics
Project Manager “The person who is responsible for the project and will be held accountable for its success or failure.”
Balancing the “Project Success Triangle” A clear understanding of customer priorities “People” skills Thorough planning An organized, structured process
The purpose of work breakdown structure (WBS) is to help plan effectively for a project by breaking key tasks or activities down in to more manageable and smaller units of work. WBS produces a detailed list of tasks to be performed for a project, helping to deliver better costing, scheduling and resource planning for a project. Cost breakdown structure (CBS) lists every item classified and its expenditure for the project in order to get a more detailed estimate of cost or expenditure. Work Breakdown Structure(WBS)
This is one of the best tools the project manager can use to determine whether he or she is on track in terms of the project progress.The project manager does not have to use expensive software to track this. The project manager can use a simple Excel template to do this job. The milestone checklist should be a live document that should be updated once or twice a week. Milestone Checklist
Examle of Milestone Checklist
With the introduction of computer technology, there have been a number of software tools specifically developed for project management purpose. MS Project is one such tool that has won the hearts of project managers all over the world. MS Project can be used as a standalone tool for tracking project progress or it can be used for tracking complex projects distributed in many geographical areas and managed by a number of project managers. There are many other software packages for project management in addition to MS Project. Most of these new additions are online portals for project management activities where the project members have access to project details and progress from anywhere. Project Management Softwares
A time chart devised by Henry Gantt in 1917, an American engineer. A Gantt chart is a horizontal bar chart used for project scheduling. Each activity or task is depicted as a block over time, actual performance is recorded in real time and compared to planned deadlines necessary for achieving completion. Gantt Charts
There are many other software packages for project management in addition to MS Project. Most of these new additions are online portals for project management activities where the project members have access to project details and progress from anywhere.
Visual of Gantt Chart
Can be used to plan time scale for a project Can be used to estimate resources required Graphical illustration of a schedule of tasks to complete e.g. ideal wall chart for the office and easy to visualise and interpret at meetings Helps to plan, coordinate, and track specific tasks for a project Good for small projects when the number of tasks or activities are small and not complex e.g. good for simple projects. The Use of Gantt Charts as a Tool
Gantt charts are a poor time management tools when projects are lengthy and complex. There often exists in large projects a high interdependency between various tasks e.g. some activities cannot start, until others have been completed first, therefore many activities are interrelated. Gantt charts in these circumstances are less desirable because they do not display or indicate interdependencies. Network (or critical path) analysis can display more logically the sequence and timing of each activity, they communicate interdependency and a more effective time management tool for large and complex projects. Critical Path Analysis (CPA) or Network Analysis
Path with least slack Path with longest duration Critical Path Method (CPM) is a project management technique that analyzes what activities have the least amount of scheduling flexibility (i.e., are the most mission-critical) and then predicts project duration schedule based on the activities that fall along the “critical path.” Activities that lie along the critical path cannot be delayed without delaying the finish time for the entire project. What’s is the Critical Path?
Advantages of critical path analysis (CPA) Identifies interrelationships between different tasks or activities Resources can be planned and allocated from using it e.g. staff planning Good communication and planning tool for time management Disadvantages of critical path analysis (CPA) Assumes a trade off between time and money but most staff cost could be a fixed not variable cost The complexity of the diagram will increase as more activities are included Key uncertainties often exist when estimating the duration for activities, therefore can be a poor prediction for elapsed time
The technique of PERT helps give better time estimation for a project, by accounting for the uncertainty when predicting task durations. As an illustration, the project manager could estimate the worse, best and most probable duration of time for each activity and then determine an ‘average’ completion time. This can be undertaken by assigning probabilities to the three estimates and calculating an ‘expected value’. The average time of each activity would then be used to configure the elapsed time of the project. PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Techniques)
A Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM) uses the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and the organizational structure to link deliverables and/or activities to resources. The RAM provides a realistic picture of the resources needed and can identify if you have enough resources for the project. Additionally, it clearly shows who is responsible for what; if it is associated with the schedule it can identify when the deliverable is needed. By creating a RAM; deliverables are assigned a responsible party, who will review or add input and the appropriate approval authority is identified. The RAM can be as simple as placing a check mark in a matrix to assign the deliverables or activities. Ensure that all tasks are assigned to people Show levels of involvement of people to work Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM) — Purpose
RACI CODING SYSTEM
Arrow Diagram Method(Activity on arc) Precedence Diagram Method(Activity on node) Network Diagram Methods
A project manager cannot execute his/her job without a proper set of tools. These tools do not have to be renowned software or something, but it can pretty well be simple and proven techniques to manage project work. Having a solid set of project management tools always makes project managers' work pleasurable and productive. Conclusion
What is Risk? With the probability of occurrence of a hazard, if you happen to be addressing with the severity of the outcome will lead to. The risk must be expressed as a function of the severity of the possibility of danger.
Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risk followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities. Risk Management
If you don’t actively attack risks, they will actively attack you. — Tom Gilb Project risks budget, schedule, resources, size, personnel, morale... Technical risks implementation technology, verification, maintenance... Business risks market, sales, management, commitment... Risk Management
Hazard and Risk Perception Risk is the amount of the possible loss Risk is a function and expressed multiplied by a of the level of loss and probability Losing of part of or all of personal assets against the a particular hazard is risk
The Process Of Risk Management Definition of risk Risk analysis List of potential risks Risk planning risk oversight Risks are ranked according to priorities risks in the removal of the break Risk estimation
Human in Risk Management
Four Techniques of Risk Management Comprehensive business risk management is a multi- stage process that will vary depending on the needs and requirements of each individual enterprise.
The first stage is to determine exactly what the risks facing your business are, in order to assess the likely and potential impact of each incident occurring. Once this process has been completed, you can get down to evaluating the technique which will best suit your business and maximize your risk management moving forward. Here are the four key potential risk treatments to consider.
Avoidance Obviously one of the easiest ways to mitigate risk is to put a stop to any activities that might put your business in jeopardy. However it's important to remember that with nothing ventured comes nothing gained, and therefore this is often not a realistic option for many business.
Reduction The second risk management technique is reduction - essentially, taking the steps required to minimize the potential that an incident will occur. Risk reduction strategies need to be weighed up in terms of their potential return on investment. If the cost of risk reduction outweighs the potential cost of an incident occurring, you will need to decide whether it is really worthwhile.
Transfer One of the best methods of risk management is transferring that risk to another party. An example of this would be purchasing comprehensive business insurance. Risk transfer is a realistic approach to risk management as it accepts that sometimes incidents do occur, yet ensures that your business will be prepared to cope with the impact of that even
Acceptance Finally, risk acceptance involves 'taking it on the chin', so to speak, and weathering the impact of an event. This option is often chosen by those who consider the cost of risk transfer or reduction to be excessive or unnecessary. Risk acceptance is a dangerous strategy as your business runs the risk of underestimating potential losses, and therefore will be particularly vulnerable in the event that an incident occurs.
Risk identification is the process of understanding what potential events might hurt or enhance a particular project. Risk identification tools and techniques include: Brainstorming The Delphi Technique Interviewing SWOT analysis Risk Identification
Sample Risk Register No.RankRiskDescriptionCategoryRoot Cause TriggersPotential Responses Risk Owner Probability ImpactStatus R441 R212 R73 46INSE 6230
Example of Top Ten Risk Item Tracking
Cause and Effect Diagrams Also known as Ishikawa or fishbone Diagramming Techniques Product Delivered Late Bad SpecsInsufficient Resources Inadequate Time Project Prioritization Testing Materials Potential CausesEffect Personnel
Quantitative Risk Analysis Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Project Schedule
Sample Sensitivity Analysis for Determining Break- Even Point