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Beijing | Brussels | London Global Overview of New Markets Steve Sawyer, Secretary General EWEA Vienna, 6 Feb 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "Beijing | Brussels | London Global Overview of New Markets Steve Sawyer, Secretary General EWEA Vienna, 6 Feb 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 Beijing | Brussels | London Global Overview of New Markets Steve Sawyer, Secretary General EWEA Vienna, 6 Feb 2013

2 Beijing | Brussels | London Outline: 1. Status of global markets 2. Short term outlook 3. New Markets 4. Looking Ahead and Conclusions

3 Beijing | Brussels | London

4 New investment in RES: Top 10 countries 2011, and growth on 2010 ($bn)

5 Global Market Overview – Power Markets  Renewables accounted for nearly half of the estimated 208 GW of new electric capacity installed in 2011  Renewable electric power capacity worldwide reached 1,360 GW (+8%) in 2011  Renewable energy comprised more than 25% of global power generation capacity  20.3% of global electricity was produced from renewable energy REN21 Renewables 2012 Global Status Report

6 Beijing | Brussels | London 15 yr avg growth: 27.7% 2011 growth: 20.3%

7 Beijing | Brussels | London 15 yr avg growth: 27.5% 2011 growth: 6%

8 Beijing | Brussels | London

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13 Cumulative Growth in OECD and Non-OECD markets

14 Beijing | Brussels | London Annual Growth in OECD and Non-OECD markets

15 Beijing | Brussels | London New Markets Latin America: Brazil and Mexico, followed by…? Africa: Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia; now Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia. South Africa underway. Asia: Mongolia, Viet Nam, Thailand, Sri Lanka. Japan?

16 16 MEXICO: 801 MW 1014,3 MW BRASIL ARGENTINA : 54 MW ~20 NICARAGUA: 39,6 MW ~20 Beijing | Brussels | London WP INSTALLED CAPACITY IN LAC 2012: 2063 MW : PAIS Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Ecuador Honduras México Nicaragua Perú Uruguay Dominican Republic Venezuela Otros Caribe Total Caribe Aruba Bonaire Curacao Dominica Guadeloupe Jamaica TOP 5 IN 2012 VENEZUELA: 30 MW

17 LAC Wind Power installed capacity status Beijing | Brussels | London

18 LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN WIND POWER GROWTH FORECAST 2020 ( Beijing | Brussels | London

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20 Mexico has many regions with premium sites for wind generation. The southern Oaxaca State is privileged. Source: Instituto de Investigaciones Eléctricas

21 Beijing | Brussels | London 1,035 GW potential for exploitation The Master Plan recommends 51 wind projects (with total planned capacity of 6,820MW) and 5 solar PV projects (with total planned capacity of 135MW) up to the period Ethiopia

22 Beijing | Brussels | London Mongolia - >1,100,000 MW potential -World’s largest mining project in Gobi desert – no roads, no power and no water -GDP growth ~ 35%/y -First commerical project nearing completion

23 Beijing | Brussels | London 2013 will be a tough year, with the single largest variable how far the US market will fall, how soon it will recover and what will be the trajectory; Canada and Mexico continue to grow. China, India – modest recovery from ‘off’ 2012 – new markets in Asia begin to contribute Europe – stable, with growth in offshore and eastern markets offsetting dire markets in S. europe Latin America – Brazil and Mexico plus…? Africa – market ‘returns’ in Morocco, Tunisia…Egypt? South Africa gets underway and Ethiopia continues to lead. Looking Ahead (1)

24 Beijing | Brussels | London Rate of global growth will slow until and unless: - new markets fill the ‘gap’ left by lack of growth in OECD, or… - OECD economy recovers, and/or - new CO2 related legislation takes effect. Downward price pressure continues: - Oversupply and tough economic times mean margins are slashed to the bone and competition is fierce; - ‘Consolidation’ in manufacturing sector seems inevitable. Looking Ahead (2)

25 Beijing | Brussels | London A global climate agreement will be fundamental for wind power to achieve its maximum potential, but for the short term: Uncertainty: - in international political landscape - in the future of the carbon markets - in ‘new’ climate-related funds Focus on national/regional legislation and markets Market drivers all still in place, and increasingly prominent: energy security; cost stability; macroeconomic security; local economic development and job creation; local environment and climate Looking Ahead (3)

26 Beijing | Brussels | London Thank you! For more information: Steve Sawyer

27 Beijing | Brussels | London


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