Presentation on theme: "Petroleum Markets “The meek shall inherit the Earth, but not the mineral rights.” - J. Paul Getty."— Presentation transcript:
Petroleum Markets “The meek shall inherit the Earth, but not the mineral rights.” - J. Paul Getty
Agenda Resource assessments Crude Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas Value Chain Key Market Issues Shifting demand – power generation Shifting supply – reversal of producing/consuming regions Firm vs. Interruptible Rates Regulatory Framework & Emerging Issues Federal Regulation Inter-fuel competition Full-Fuel Cycle Analysis
Resource Assessment Oil vs. Gas
Oil Supply Outlook
High Oil Prices – Getting Higher
U.S. Gas Prices vs Global Oil Prices
We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly one hundred years, and my Administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy. Experts believe this will support more than 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade. President Obama State of the Union Address 25 January 2012
Golden Age of Gas “Some believe there is enough methane in the form of hydrates— methane locked in ice— to supply energy for hundreds, maybe thousands, of years,” according to researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory.Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Global Gas Production US shale production alone exceeds all other nations’ gas production except Russia. Proved natural gas reserves and shale resource estimates, selected countries (2009)
World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2012 North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world, yet the potential also exists for a similarly transformative shift in global energy efficiency The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO ’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by North America emerges as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade, with almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports being drawn to Asia by 2035.
Natural Gas Value Chain Upstream Midstream Downstream
Value Chain: Natural Gas Delivery System
Value Chain: Upstream In 1821, William Hart dug the first well specifically to produce natural gas in the United States in the Village of Fredonia on the banks of Canadaway Creek in Chautauqua County, New York. It was 27 feet deep, excavated with shovels by hand, and its gas pipeline was hollowed-out logs sealed with tar and rags. In recent years, natural gas production has been dominated by independents rather than integrated majors like ExxonMobil. There are over 19,000 U.S. natural gas producers.
Henry Hub (the main U.S. natural gas hub) – Erath, Louisiana The Henry Hub is a pipeline interchange near Erath, LA, where a number of interstate and intrastate pipelines connect via the Sabine Pipe Line header system. Henry Hub is the standard delivery point for the NYMEX natural gas futures contract. Acadian Museum: Erath LA by Richard Byrd
Value Chain: Midstream The natural gas pipeline transportation system, the “interstate highway”, consists of 306,000 miles of high-strength steel pipe 14 to 48 inches in diameter Midstream infrastructure includes transmission pipelines, storage fields and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. Pipelines are regulated under FERC and are considered open-access carriers (i.e., pipelines do not own the gas shipped) Shipper service classes include firm, interruptible, and capacity release contracts Pipeline expansion and construction driven by firm customer base only (not reserve margin or excess design capacity) Piped gas moves 30 miles per hour from producing regions to end users
Value Chain: Downstream City Gate–the location at which the interstate and intrastate pipelines sell/deliver natural gas to local distribution companies, which deliver gas to most residential and commercial consumers LDCs are regulated by state commissions with rate-making procedures similar to electric utilities Cost recovery for LDC contracts with consumers via delivery “pass through” charges City Gate: Where Midstream Becomes Downstream
Key Market Issues Shifting demand – power generation Shifting supply – reversal of producing/consuming regions Firm vs. Interruptible Rates
Shifting Demand Power plant retirements Nuclear : Vermont Yankee, Indian Point, San Ofre Coal: On June 2, 2014, the EPA proposed the Clean Power Plan to cut carbon emissions from existing power plants. Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan increased global demand for natural gas. Boiler MACT
Power Sector Gas Consumption Change
Shifting Geography of Supply Shale Basins and U.S. PipelinesDeclining Imports
Price Dynamics Insufficient infrastructure at any point along value chain can contribute to price volatility, a shrinking market, and even stranded gas supplies and reduced economic activity. “Basis” is the price differential for natural gas between the NYMEX futures contract price at the Henry Hub and the price at other locations. Natural gas basis reflects the transportation costs, as well as regional supply and demand factors.
Infrastructure Constraints Constraints on gas supply into New England due to: 1) decline of Atlantic Canada supplies and LNG Imports, 2) increased demand, and 3) no new infrastructure to bring supplies to New England Source: Platt’s Daily January 22, 2014
Economics of Infrastructure Bottlenecks Interruptible Service–a pipeline service contract that allows curtailment or cessation of service at the pipeline’s discretion under certain circumstances specified in the service contract. Firm Service–a serviced offered to customers under contract with no interruptions, regardless of service class, except in the case of force majeure. Incremental (vs. rolled-in) Rates)–FERC rate-making policy requiring pipeline expansions to be priced at the higher of actual cost-based rates or current system rates.
Regulatory Framework & Emerging Issues History of federal regulation Inter-fuel competition Full-Fuel Cycle Analysis
Federal Gas Regulation DateLaw/Regulatory Instrument Federal Power Commission 1938 Natural Gas Act of Phillips Petroleum Co. v. Wisconsin 1978 Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) of FERC Order 436 – Natural Gas Wellhead Decontrol Act of FERC Order 636
Inter-fuel Competition: Gas Price Advantage Long-term elastic supply curve means supply will meet new demand for many years at a cost of about $4 per Mcf, according to IHS CERA. Henry Hub price of natural gas to remain in the $4-5 per MMBtu range (constant 2012 $) on an annual average through Delivered prices for home heating oil are expected to be more than twice as high as rates for residential natural gas service, encouraging the ongoing process of replacing fuel oil with natural gas for home heating. On a Btu-equivalent basis, residential and commercial electricity rates are expected to be on average 3.5 times more expensive than natural gas rates on a national average. Natural gas prices will not have to increase materially to elicit additional supplies, owing to the extensive resource base that is available at a full-cycle breakeven price of about $4 per Mcf; Natural gas prices will remain significantly lower than had been expected prior to the Shale Gale; Retail natural gas prices are expected to remain lower over the long-term, on a Btu-equivalent basis, than refined oil products or electricity.
The Durst Experience When did you first experiment with co-gen power? Jody Durst: Our first experience with distributed generation was with our installation of fuel cells at 4 Times Square in And what was the hurdle to using it in an office building? Jody Durst: There were cost challenges, but the biggest hurdle was getting acceptance from Con Edison. What was Con Edison’s fear? Douglas Durst: Con Edison makes its money now by transporting electricity so if you’re generating it on site they don’t get paid. And they didn’t like to think about a world where all building owners generate their own power over the course of Manhattan’s 400 million square feet of office space. Have they since warmed up to the idea? Jody Durst: No, not really. We experienced the same sort of hurdles from them with subsequent co-gen installations. Source : Jotham Sederstrom, “The Power Generator, The Commercial Observer, March 13, 2012
Full-Fuel Cycle Regulations Extant natural gas regulation was developed in a time of perceived scarcity and is poorly designed for today’s and tomorrow’s gas markets. Full fuel-cycle analysis more accurately assesses impact of natural gas of vis-à-vis emissions and costs of energy. Many states have implemented revenue decoupling adjustments to assure gas LDCs that they can recover their fixed costs even if energy efficiency efforts reduce natural gas throughput on their systems. These adjustments are intended to make a gas LDC indifferent to changes in the amount of natural gas delivered on its system. decoupling programs to encourage the adoption of full fuel-cycle energy efficiency goals which could result in increased direct use of natural gas, thereby reducing total energy consumption. Residential gas and electric prices reflect full fuel-cycle costs: residential electric prices are substantially higher than residential natural gas prices because electric prices include the generating cost of converting natural gas, coal, oil and nuclear fuel into electricity. The higher the ratio to gas prices to electric prices, the easier for natural gas to displace electricity. In 2011, the ratio of residential electric retail prices to residential gas prices ranged from a low of 2.2 in the Pacific Northwest to a high of 3.7 in the Middle Atlantic. The ratio of average projected electric residential prices to average projected residential natural gas prices for ranges from a low of 2.5 for the Pacific Northwest to a high of 5.2 for California.
Three Times More Energy Reaches the Customer with Natural Gas Electricity Natural Gas Delivered To Customer 32 Conversion MMBtu Energy Source Production & Transportation Distribution 100 MMBTU Energy Source Total CO 2 e Total CO 2 e 6.4 Not Applicable 32% Efficient 92% Efficient 1 Includes all energy inputs, including renewable sources – based on actual fuel mix in Includes greenhouse gas impact from unburned methane 3 Energy consumed in space and water heating, clothes drying, and cooking. NOTE: This full-fuel-cycle examines all impacts from the energy source through consumption CO 2 equivalent 2 emissions from typical household use 3 (metric tons) CO 2 equivalent 2 emissions from typical household use 3 (metric tons)
Annual Electric and Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Program Spending in the U.S.
Innovative Business Strategies Enron’s gas bank NG Advantage