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Understanding and Responding to Earthquake Hazards Carol A. Raymond Paul R. Lundgren Søren N. Madsen Jet Propulsion Laboratory And John B. Rundle University.

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Presentation on theme: "Understanding and Responding to Earthquake Hazards Carol A. Raymond Paul R. Lundgren Søren N. Madsen Jet Propulsion Laboratory And John B. Rundle University."— Presentation transcript:

1 Understanding and Responding to Earthquake Hazards Carol A. Raymond Paul R. Lundgren Søren N. Madsen Jet Propulsion Laboratory And John B. Rundle University of Colorado

2 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 2 Summary  Discuss ongoing Global Earthquake Satellite System Study (GESS)  Objectives of the study are to develop a linked science and technology program plan that would lead to understanding of faults and fault systems and achieve short-term, targeted earthquake forecasting by –Develop detailed science requirements with science community input (EarthScope and beyond) –Develop system architecture concepts for both short term (next 5 years) and long term (next 20 years)

3 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 3 Observing Crustal Dynamics  Surface change (deformation) is the key observable –Considered the highest priority of the NASA Solid Earth Science community (InSAR everywhere, all the time) –Models and seismicity yield third dimension (depth)  Electromagnetic, IR/thermal emissions may indicate state of stress –More research is needed, and systematic data analysis of high resolution data sets –Addressed by ASTER, MODIS, Demeter, swarm

4 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 4 Future Observing System  Seismicity yields information on the energy released in discrete events and illuminates fault planes –Need dense digital seismic network (USGS)  Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements track surface motions on specific points with high time resolution –Need dense, continuous GPS arrays (SCIGN, PBO)  Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measures the deformation of the surface as a continuum, but usually with poor time resolution –Need an InSAR constellation to improve temporal resolution

5 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study days < 24 hrs 1 sec Increasing temporal resolution Surface Deformation Science Requirements Increasing accuracy Real Aperture Radar

6 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 6 Surface Deformation Measurement Requirements MinimumGoal Displacement accuracy 25 mm instantaneous 5 mm instantaneous 3–D displacement accuracy 50 mm (1 week) 10 mm (1 day) Displacement rate 2 mm/yr (over 10 y) <1 mm/yr (over 10 y) Temporal Accessibility 8–days 1–day or less Daily Coverage 6  10 6 km 2 Global (land) Map region ±60° latitude Global Spatial resolution 100 m 10 m Geo-location accuracy 25 m 3 m Swath100 km500 km Data latency in case of event 1 day 2 hours after acq.

7 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 7 Observations to Prediction InSARSeismicityGPS electric field magnetic field thermal IR Community Modeling Environment Model validationModel validation Model evolutionModel evolution Forward predictionForward prediction Grid-based computingGrid-based computing Data MiningData Mining General Earthquake Model (GEM) is prototypeGeneral Earthquake Model (GEM) is prototype Dynamic Earthquake Hazard Assessment (monthly? to annual/USGS) Physics-based models of precursory signals FEMA, CA OES and Int’l Aid Community

8 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 8 Responding to EQ Hazards  Earthquake hazard assessments: –Prioritize retrofitting of vulnerable structures –Update building codes –Increase earthquake drills for emergency services and public (schools) –Public education campaigns –Increase monitoring of hazardous areas  Disaster: –Rapid assessment of damage in all weather via decorrelation maps received on handheld devices –Updated hazard assessment due to stress transfer and loading of nearby faults

9 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 9 Faults Can Be Modeled as Interacting Systems: Virtual California Southern California Seismicity Fault Representation Courtesy Paul Rundle and John Rundle Physical Review Letters, 2001 VC provides an assessment of the space-time complexity of seismicity and fault system behavior Community Modeling

10 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 10 Pre- minus Post-Seismic Displacements: Synthetic InSAR The pre-seismic state is subtracted from the post- seismic state The differences are concentrated along the portions of the San Andreas that are about to initiate earthquakes The observable difference is ~ 3 CM Stable sliding (stress smoothing) preceding earthquakes can be measured Courtesy John Rundle

11 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 11 InSAR Concept Alternatives  Low Earth Orbit (LEO) 780 km elevation ECHO/LightSAR class satellite Cheapest option, 8-day repeat  Enhanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO+) 1325 km elevation, 6-day repeat 50–80% larger targeted range, stable orbits Technology as LEO but larger antenna and power  Constellation of LEO+ satellites (2/4/8… satellites)  Geosynchronous SAR (GeoSyncSAR) km elevation, 1-day repeat, 1 satellite covers ±60° in longitude 5500 km “targetable” swath on either side of ground track Very large antenna (30 L-band), moderately large power (65 kW DC)

12 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 12 LEO Accessibility versus GEO Coverage >95% coverage in 8 hrs with 3 sats >95% access in 8 hrs with 8 sats

13 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 13 Geosynchronous Modes  High-resolution: Stagger bandwidth over consecutive days => 80 MHz bandwidth => 2.5 meter range resolution at 45°  Dual-side Scan SAR km combined swath =>100 meter 25 looks  Scan-SAR with 3 aspect angles (45° forward, broadside, 45° backward) of 2800 km swath on both side of nadir =>100 meter 8 looks  Spotlight mode dwelling beam for hours on target, for disaster management

14 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 14 3-GEO Instantaneous

15 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 15 Technology Challenges  Sub-centimeter (!!) tropospheric water vapor delay corrections –Radar or radiometer data alone accurate to 2-3 cm level of range delay –Co-boresighted IR/microwave sounding may yield 1 cm accuracy in delay –Mesoscale models that ingest sounding and radar data will likely deliver the sub-cm correction –GPS, permanent scatterers and corner cubes all improve the wet delay correction  30-m antenna (deployable) for GEO –Analysis and component development  New processing system for GEO

16 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 16 Flexible Hexagonal Antenna L-band/X-band membrane antenna aperture Flexible T/R module Ultra high efficiency SiC Class-E/F power amplifiers Agile 2-D beam scanning MEMS heat pipes for thermal management Optical RF/DC signal distribution Inflatable/deployable structures Integrated solar panels Symmetric telescoping booms Inflatable/deployable struts L-band RF membrane aperture Membrane Solar Arrays X-band Shared-aperture comm antenna

17 Global Earthquake Satellite System Study 17 GESS Roadmap  Observations – : ECHO or ECHO-like InSAR satellite (EarthScope) – : 2-3 satellite LEO or LEO+ InSAR constellation; magnetometer constellation –>2010: GEO InSAR constellation?  Technology –Large deployable antennas –Processing system for GEO observations –High resolution atmospheric models ingesting radar data


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