Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Modelling deforestation and its intraregional interactions in the Brazilian Amazon: market pressure versus public policies Amazônia em Perspectiva: Por.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Modelling deforestation and its intraregional interactions in the Brazilian Amazon: market pressure versus public policies Amazônia em Perspectiva: Por."— Presentation transcript:

1 Modelling deforestation and its intraregional interactions in the Brazilian Amazon: market pressure versus public policies Amazônia em Perspectiva: Por uma Ciência Integrada Conferência Científica Internacional LBA, GEOMA & PPBio 17 a 20 de novembro, Manaus - Amazonas – Brasil Giovana Mira de Espindola (INPE) Advisors: Dra. Ana Paula Aguiar (INPE) Dr. Gilberto Câmara (INPE)..

2 Motivation Objectives Study Area and Scales Methodological Approaches SUMMARY

3 MOTIVATION Based on previous results (AGUIAR, 2006), we need to further understand: Interaction between processes that act on different scales Intraregional interactions of market pressure, policies, connectivity, and institutional aspects The role of connectivity to markets in different contexts

4 Demand: Is related to external market forces, increase and decrease are proxies of market constraints Variables: Scale 25 x 25 km 2 –Percentage of protected areas –Connection to national markets –Distance to paved roads –Distance to unpaved roads Scale 100 x 100 km 2 –Distance to roads –Average humidity –Percentage of fertility soils CLUE MODEL

5 Comparison to real data and new frontiers process knowledge Alternative CLUE runs from 1997 to 2020 SCENARIO EXPLORATION Linking Patterns to Process Knowledge

6 Federative States 0%100% Deforestation Pattern in 1997 (25 x 25 km 2 )

7 Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers 0.0 – – – – – – – – – – 1.0 % Change 1997 to 2020 Baseline Scenario A – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to 2020 São Felix/Iriri (Terra do Meio) BR-163 (Cuiabá-Santarém) South of Amazonas BR-319 (Porto Velho-Manaus) New frontiers in Central Amazon:

8 ALAP BR – – – – – – – – – – 1.0 % Change 1997 to 2020 Baseline Scenario A – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to 2020 Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers

9 ALAP BR-319 New Protected Areas (2007) New Areas of Sustainable Use (2007) Baseline Scenario A – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to – – – – – – – – – – 1.0 % Change 1997 to 2020 Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers

10 0.0 – – – – – – – – – – 1.0 % mudança 1997 a 2020: Scenario B – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to 2020 – All Areas ALAP BR-319 New Protected Areas (2007) New Areas of Sustainable Use (2007) Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers

11 Diminuição : Aumento : Diferences: Diferences – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to 2020 ALAP BR-319 Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers

12 Interaction between processes that act on different scales: 1)Understand intraregional interactions of market pressure, connectivity, policies and institutional aspects 2)The role of connectivity to markets in different contexts

13 OBJECTIVES Part 1: Understand rates of deforestation fluctuation since 2000 considering market versus policies in different contexts. Part 2: Compare statistical analysis using 2006 Agricultural Census to understand spatial determining factors in comparison to 1996 (AGUIAR, 2006). Part 3: Construct new multiscale models and scenarios for Amazon for specific land uses (pasture, mechanized agriculture, familiar agriculture).

14 STUDY AREA AND SCALES PA-279/SFX and BR-163/Santarém North of MT, South of Amazonas

15 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES Part 1: Understand rates of deforestation fluctuation since 2000 considering market versus policies in different contexts. Study Area: Focus on selected sites to include heterogeneity of actors and frontiers São Félix, Santarém, South of Amazonas, Mato Grosso. Methods: - Refine connection measures (markets, infrastructure projects). - Factors: Commodities price, land prices, cadastral regulation measures, command and control actions, protected areas. - Field-work, cluster analysis.

16 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES Part 2: Compare statistical analysis using 2006 Agricultural Census to understand spatial determining factors in comparison to 1996 (AGUIAR, 2006). Study Area: Focus on selected sites to include heterogeneity of actors and frontiers São Félix, Santarém, South of Amazonas, Mato Grosso. Methods: - Statistical analysis, regression analysis

17 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES Part 3: Construct new multiscale models and scenarios for Amazon for specific land uses (pasture, mechanized agriculture, familiar agriculture). Study Area: Focus on selected sites to include heterogeneity of actors and frontiers São Félix, Santarém, South of Amazonas, Mato Grosso. Methods: - Multiscale, multi-locality, multi-approach framework in TerraME models (Carneiro, 2006; Moreira et al., 2008)


Download ppt "Modelling deforestation and its intraregional interactions in the Brazilian Amazon: market pressure versus public policies Amazônia em Perspectiva: Por."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google