Presentation on theme: "Michael Li, Senior Policy Advisor Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy."— Presentation transcript:
1 Michael Li, Senior Policy Advisor Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy
2 What is Green Button?Common-sense idea that electricity customers should be able to download their own energy usage information in a consumer- and computer-friendly format.Source:2
3 Who is implementing green button? Utilities and electricity suppliers in 24 states across various regulatory regimes have committed to provide 30 million US homes and businesses Green Button data.Commitment to Green Button:American Electric PowerAustin EnergyBaltimore Gas & ElectricCenterPoint EnergyChattanooga EPBCommonwealth EdisonGlendale Water and PowerNational GridOncorPECOPepco HoldingsPPL Electric UtilitiesPacific PowerRocky Mountain PowerSouthern California EdisonVirginia Dominion PowerUtilities & Electricity Suppliers with Green Button today:(almost 10 million homes)NSTARPG&EReliantSDG&ETXU EnergyNSTARPG&EReliantSDG&ETXU Energy
4 Green Button Facts What it is: Energy usage information in a common XML format (NAESB ESPI data std)PG&E example: how much electricity (kWh) did one metered customer consume every hour for the last yearMarkets: Residential, commercial and industrialType: initially electricity, but the data standard is extensible to gas and water dataTimeliness: Not real time data, but 24 hour-old back office data.Time interval:Again the data standard is extensible and could include any interval of data.Most will provide 15 minute interval or hourly data.However, some will provide monthly data, too.Metering system:You don’t need to have AMI to participate. AMR works, too.Transfer of data:Green Button, Download My Data – goes directly from the utility to the customer; most will implement this version.Green Button Connect - automated data transfer from the utility to a third party with customer authorization is the 2nd part of the data std; may be implemented as early as this year in 1-2 states.
5 Helping to spur new innovation and Green Button Apps
6 Apps for Energy Winners Best Overall App Grand Prize: LeafullyLocation: Seattle, WashingtonLeafully, helps utility customers visualize their Green Button data, as a variety of units, such as the amount of trees needed to offset an individual’s energy usage. Best Overall App Second Prize: MelonLocation: Washington, DCThe app uses Green Button to evaluate the energy performance of commercial buildings. Best Overall App Third Prize: VELObillLocation: New York, NY VELObill app helps makes it easier for utility customers to view their energy usage, measure whether it is high or low, and compare it to that of their peers. Best Student App Grand Prize: wotz Location: Irvine, CABest Student App Second Prize: Budget It YourselfLocation: Cleveland, OH
7 SEE Action Working Groups Working Group Leadership Susan Ackerman, OR PUC Vaughn Clark, OK SEO Todd Currier, WA SEO Jennifer Easler, IA Consumer Advocate Joshua Epel, CO PUC Jim Gallagher, NY ISO Bryan Garcia, CT Clean Energy Fund Frank Murray, NY SEO Pat Oshie, WA PUC Phyllis Reha, MN PUC Cheryl Roberto, OH PUC Janet Streff, MN SEO Keith Welks, PA Treasury Malcolm Woolf, MD SEOEach of the working groups developed a blueprint (or roadmap) for achieving near- and long-term aggressive goals critical to capturing all cost-effective energy efficiency within the respective sectors.
8 Evaluation, Measurement, and Verification (EM&V) of Residential Behavior-Based Energy Efficiency Programs: Issues and RecommendationsJune 25, 2012Michael Li US Department of EnergyAnnika Todd Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
10 Outline: Evaluation of Behavior-Based Programs What is a behavior-based energy program?Why is evaluation of these programs hard?Why is designing a program as a “randomized controlled trial” (RCT) so important?
11 What is a behavior-based energy program? Programs that affect the way that consumers use energy without using traditional methods, such as prices and rebatesInstead, use simple psychological levers or information to change behaviorExample 1: Comparing your energy use with your neighborsExample 2: Providing real-time information about energy useOther examples:Competitions, rewards: Turning energy use into a gameEducation / Outreach: Information about energy behaviorDisplay of feedback: Simplify / Framing
12 What are the potential benefits and concerns? In theory, potentially cheap to implement and result in significant energy savings cost effectiveAs a result, increasingly being adopted nationwidePotential ConcernsIn reality, these programs are relatively new and evidence of energy saving effects is unclearPotential for unsubstantiated claims
13 Why is evaluation crucially important? It is very important to measure effect of these programsNeed to gain information about how well different types of programs workAre the estimates energy savings valid for utilities to claim savings?
14 Why is evaluation of these programs hard? Strong problems of “selection bias”: households who join (choice, screening) are fundamentally differentObserved differences might be due to program; might difference between groupsSelection bias can skew the results of the evaluationJoinDidn’tJoinPopulation
15 Why is evaluation of these programs hard? Energy programs “selection bias”: households who opt-in may be more energy consciousObserved difference in energy use might be due to the program; but might be difference between groupsOpt-inDon’t opt-in
16 Why is evaluation of these programs hard? It may be more difficult to measure the impact of behavior-based programs correctly (in contrast to other programs such as appliance rebates)Impacts vary significantly between householdsWithin a household, hard to disentangle changes in overall energy usage between program, other factorsSavings are relatively small: often 1-5%, so if an evaluation is biased, large implications
17 Why is evaluation of these programs hard? Bad evaluation could lead to bad policy decisions
18 SEE Action Report“Evaluation, Measurement, and Verification (EM&V) of Residential Behavior-Based Energy Efficiency Programs”Provides guidelines and best practices forProgram designProgram analysis and evaluation given designProvides rankings for different methodsTarget audiences:Senior managers responsible for overseeing and reviewing efficiency program designs and evaluationsPractitioners, evaluation professionals, and staff responsible for reviewing efficiency program designs and evaluations
19 Why is designing a program as a randomized controlled trial (RCT) so important? Primary recommendation – a well designed, RCT program results in:Transparent, straightforward analysisRobust, accurate, valid program impact estimatesHigh degree of confidence in program effectivenessWhy?RCT means that households are assigned to the program randomly (as opposed to household choice or screening criteria)Solves selection bias
20 Why is designing a program as a randomized controlled trial (RCT) so important? If RCTs are not feasible, recommendations for acceptable “quasi-experimental” methodsMore opaque, difficult, complex analysisQuasi-experimental methods try to correct for selection biasLower degree of confidence in validity of savings estimates
21 Other Key Recommendations Problem: Potential conflicts of interestRecommendation: Third-party evaluator transparently defines and implements program evaluation, assignment to control and treatment groups, data selectionProblem: The same savings may be claimed by two programs (e.g., a behavioral program & appliance rebate program both claim savings from appliances)Recommendation: Estimate and account for this “double counted savings” overlap to the extent possible by comparing control to treatment groups
22 Recommendations for the Future The hope is that in the future, we will have conclusive evidence about the effectiveness of different types of behavior-based programsMove away from RCTsWe are not yet at this point…
23 Questions?Main point: evaluation of behavior-based programs is difficult, but if the program is designed in the right way (using a RCT) then we can be confident that the evaluation of the program’s energy savings is validMany guidelines and technical recommendations in the report:SEE Action website,Lawrence Berkeley National Lab website: behavioranalytics.lbl.govMike Li:Annika Todd: