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James Stevenson. Auto industry Second-largest automobile producer in the world Est. 3-3.5% of US GDP Directly employs 1.7 million Americans Spends $16-18.

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Presentation on theme: "James Stevenson. Auto industry Second-largest automobile producer in the world Est. 3-3.5% of US GDP Directly employs 1.7 million Americans Spends $16-18."— Presentation transcript:

1 James Stevenson

2 Auto industry Second-largest automobile producer in the world Est % of US GDP Directly employs 1.7 million Americans Spends $16-18 billion annually on research and development Bailed out for $80 billion in 2008 Airline Industry Devastated by 9/11—lost $30 billion and laid off 100k workers from Bailed out for $4.6 billion. Will fly 323 million seat-miles in 2012 Employs nearly 600,000 Americans

3 Uniqueness: industry strong now Link: plan trades off w/ industry growth Siphons demand Decreases competitiveness “Zero sum”—predicated off aff solvency Internal link: industry is good, generally for a few reasons: Economy Hegemony/competitiveness Aerospace

4 The 2008 recession: Recession = sustained period of decreased economic activity Begins in Officially ends in 2009 but lingering effects remain Housing bubble Derivative deregulation Median household income drops to 1996 levels The facts: Unemployment in June is 8.2%. +800,000 jobs. Retail sales dropped 0.5% in June—third straight negative month Growth in the last 11 fiscal quarters Economy is 1.2% larger than pre-recession levels

5 UQ: Economy is okay L: There are a few possibilities-- Fiscal discipline Spending decreases US credit rating Spending snowballs—”pork barrel” projects Inflation “Invisible hand” of the free market” vs targetted government spending Private investment crowd-out !: Economy

6 Two important techniques: Know the facts. Know the theory, so you can spin the facts. Econ debates are 75% spin. Internal link comparisons Short vs. long term growth Sustainability of growth Evidence specificity—generic cards vs aff/transportation specific analysis Eurozone comparisons Economic decline as “escalatino” impact—turns case args

7 Oil prices Spot price per barrel of Brent crude Follow laws of supply and demand “Market flooding”—massive supply increase to offset drop in price OPEC Several of the most powerful oil retailers in the world—except the US and Russia Trades oil in dollars… for now

8 UQ: Oil prices up L: Plan lowers oil prices !: High oil prices good—another entity/country depends on them Basically infinite possible impacts. Aff—either don’t do things that link to the DA, or keep updated on generic parts of the argument (oil prices uniqueness, economic stability, alt causes to the link, etc) and learn to impact turn

9 Saudi Arabia 2 nd largest reserves and largest producer (as of March) US ally, sort of. Close neighbors w/ Egypt (just had a revolution), Israel (historic enemies, nuclear-armed), Syria (undergoing revolution), Iraq (yeah), Bahrain + Yemen (successfully stifled revolutions), Iran (probably seeking nuclear armament, also historic enemies) Russia 8 th largest reserves, 2 nd largest producer Taxes on oil = half of government revenue $1 in oil pricing = $1.5 billion of revenue

10 Provisions requiring that spending goes to American companies Political interest Directness of stimulus “Protectionism”—doesn’t give other countries a fair chance— triggers reciprocation Trade = “escalatino” impact

11 UQ: Trade up now L: Plan has to use Buy American, triggers protectionism Spills over—economic ripples Other countries’ statements !: Protectionism bad Trade connectivity = peace

12 Presidential elections. They are happening. Read the news. They matter. Normal election year politics = gridlock, because any controversy is kryptonite Infinite impacts. Electoral college, not popular vote = some states matter more than others Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, New Hampshire

13 UQ: Obama/Romney will win now L: Plan is unpopular/popular, making Obama/Romney lose !: Obama/Romney good Iran strikes Economy Warming/emissions/green tech Immigration Health care repeal

14 Two ways to get ahead on uniqueness: Cut cards regularly. Nate Silver = generally considered the best poll analyst in the country Cut swing-state specific uniqueness/link modules to beat link turns Elections debate often devolve to impacts v. impact turns—be prepared with uniqueness tricks and turn shields Obama can’t fulfill his agenda, GOP will constrain him Romney lacks political spine, will moderate once he’s elected

15 UQ: X bill will pass L/IL: Plan’s political fallout makes X bill not pass !: X bill good

16 Wind PTC Jackson-Vanik/PNTR Debt Ceilling/Fiscal Cliff Further down the road: Immigration Energy/emissions regulation Health care repeal CTBT

17 Extremely technical Put it in the 1NR. Three essential elements Recent cards Short/efficient cards Lots of cards Comparisons Predictive vs. descriptive Qualifications

18 Infrastructure spending is generally unpopular Cost Pork But it might also be kinda popular Contractors Public good Stimulus/unemployment

19 Simply: presidential ability to leverage his/her clout to pass bills Public pressure Back-room negotiating Agenda setting Have to win Obama would push the plan Not simply a question of popularity/unpopularity of the president OR of the plan

20 Focus—has to work on one issue to get it passed Agenda/docket—plan knocks another item off the legislative list Winners win—classic 2AC answer Winning passage of difficult legislation builds, not spends, political capital Assumes political capital

21 They are funny er_embedded frontrunner-after-showing-no-inter,19678/


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