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June 23, 2003AVW06230311 International Mortality Comparisons Richard MacMinn Richard MacMinn Edmondson-Miller Chair Katie School College of Business Illinois.

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Presentation on theme: "June 23, 2003AVW06230311 International Mortality Comparisons Richard MacMinn Richard MacMinn Edmondson-Miller Chair Katie School College of Business Illinois."— Presentation transcript:

1 June 23, 2003AVW International Mortality Comparisons Richard MacMinn Richard MacMinn Edmondson-Miller Chair Katie School College of Business Illinois State University

2 June 23, Opening comments Data The Human Mortality Database Perspectives on international mortality data Period data Select birth cohorts Rationales for mortality improvements

3 June 23, Objectives Look for common trends in mortality improvement data Identify select birth cohorts Seek causal links for mortality improvements Compare immediate annuity costs using historical mortality data

4 June 23, Select birth cohorts A select cohort is a birth cohort characterized by greater rates of mortality improvement that previous and subsequent generations. A number of select birth cohorts have been identified in the literature England & Wales ( ), Sweden ( ), and Japan ( ) More select birth cohorts are noted here.

5 June 23, Select birth cohorts Country Select cohort years England & Wales Norway Sweden Denmark France Switzerland Italy , Austria , Japan , United States ,

6 June 23, England & Wales There are some dramatic mortality improvements by period The GAD identified generations born between 1925 and 1945 as select birth cohorts. Mean mortality improvements jumped from a max of 1.8% to 3.8% for select cohorts. The standard deviation jumped from.043 to.056

7 June 23, England & Wales

8 June 23, England & Wales

9 June 23, England & Wales

10 June 23, England & Wales The next figure compares immediate annuity costs for different birth cohorts. At each date the figure provides the cost for an immediate annuity that covers the individual for age 25 through 45.

11 June 23, England & Wales

12 June 23, England & Wales

13 June 23, England & Wales

14 June 23, Norway There are some dramatic mortality improvements by period Note the 1870’s and late 1940’s. A 1940 select birth cohort has been identified.

15 June 23, Norway

16 June 23, Norway

17 June 23, Norway

18 June 23, Sweden There are some dramatic mortality improvements by period Note and the early 1940’s and 1930 select birth cohorts have been identified. The mean mortality improvement increased and the standard deviation decreased for the select cohorts.

19 June 23, Sweden

20 June 23, Sweden

21 June 23, Sweden

22 June 23, Denmark There are some dramatic improvements in the 1940’s 1925 and 1935 exhibit select cohorts properties

23 June 23, Denmark

24 June 23, Denmark

25 June 23, Denmark

26 June 23, France There are dramatic period effects subsequent to 1915 and A 1935 select cohort seems to exist

27 June 23, France

28 June 23, France

29 June 23, France

30 June 23, France

31 June 23, West Germany Some dramatic period effects exist, e.g., , 1910 and 1915 exhibit select birth cohort effects

32 June 23, West Germany

33 June 23, West Germany

34 June 23, West Germany

35 June 23, Switzerland There are quite dramatic period effects for the 1920’s and 1940’s 1930 and 1950 exhibit select cohort properties

36 June 23, Switzerland

37 June 23, Switzerland

38 June 23, Switzerland

39 June 23, Switzerland

40 June 23, Italy There are dramatic positive and negative effects in the 1940’s. The 1915, 1930 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties. The 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit higher mean mortality improvements and lower standard deviations that surrounding cohorts

41 June 23, Italy

42 June 23, Italy

43 June 23, Italy

44 June 23, Italy

45 June 23, Austria There is a significant negative mortality effect in the 1960’s similar to other countries. The 1900, 1905, 1910, 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties

46 June 23, Austria

47 June 23, Austria

48 June 23, Austria

49 June 23, Austria

50 June 23, Japan Significant period effects persisted into the 1950’s at early ages. The 1910, 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties

51 June 23, Japan

52 June 23, Japan

53 June 23, Japan

54 June 23, Japan

55 June 23, Japan The next figure compares immediate annuity costs for different birth cohorts. At each date the figure provides the cost for an immediate annuity that covers the individual for age 25 through 45.

56 June 23, Japan

57 June 23, United States Significant period effects occurred in the 1960’s and 1980’s. The 1915, 1930 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties

58 June 23, United States

59 June 23, United States

60 June 23, United States

61 June 23, United States

62 June 23, United States The next figure compares immediate annuity costs for different birth cohorts. At each date the figure provides the cost for an immediate annuity that covers the individual for age 25 through 45.

63 June 23, United States

64 June 23, Annuity comparisons The figure provides a comparison of immediate annuity costs for Japan, England & Wales and the United States

65 June 23, Annuity comparisons The correlation between the change in costs is significant. The correlation between the: US and England & Wales is 59% US and Japan is 52% England & Wales and Japan is 33%

66 June 23, Close The mortality experience in the countries investigated exhibit similar trends from both a period and a cohort perspective. The similar mortality experience is confirmed by the sizable correlation between the changes in annuity costs.


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