1. System Dynamics Projects in Eskom
NALINI SOOKNANAN PILLAY
HEAD: SYSTEM DYNAMICS CENTRE OF EXPERTISE
RESEARCH TESTING AND DEVELOPMENT
SUSTAINABILITY GROUP

2. System Dynamics CoE Alignment with Eskom’s Strategic Imperatives
SI_1
Becoming a high performance organisation
SI_2
Leading and partnering to keep the lights on
SI_3
Reducing environmental footprint, pursuing low-C growth opportunities
SI_4
Securing future resource requirements, mandate & enabling environment
BUSINESS FOCUS AREAS
System causality through causal loop diagrams
Asset Management
Distribution
Customer Service
Research and consulting in the field of systems thinking and system dynamics
Extraction of core archetypal behaviour
System Market Operator
IDM
Primary energy
Extend mental models into SD simulators with feedbacks & time delays
Development of appropriate user interface tools
Strategy & Policy
Generation and New Build
EAL
Build capacity for SD simulations and systems thinking principles
SI_5
Ensuring financial sustainability
SI_6
Setting ourselves up for success
SI_7
Implementing coal haulage and road to rail migration plan
SI_8
Pursuing private sector participation 2

3. System Dynamics CoE Language of System Dynamics
1. CAUSALITY
3. SYSTEM ARCHETYPES
Balancing loop with time delays
Reinforcing loops
Limits to growth
Fixes that fail
Tragedy of the commons
Success to the successful
Eroding goals
Shifting the burden
2. TIME PATHS
4. LANGUAGE
Time
System 3 3

4. System Dynamics CoE Positioning of Eskom
Strategic Orientation
Operational Planning
Feedback
DETERMINISTIC
SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING
Water,
Tariffs,
Emissions,
etc.
PF Coal,
HVDC,
PWR,
FGD,
Nuclear,
Gas,
Pumped storage etc.
Gen IV Nuclear,
Batteries,
Smart grid,
Electric Vehicle,
Wave power,
GS Heat Pumps,
Disruptive Technologies,
Ocean pumped storage,
Efficiency technologies,
Energy Intelligence,
Energy storage,
Mini-grids
CCS, etc.
IRP,
Intl. Treaties,
CO2 derivatives,
Fossil depletion,
Energy policy,
Transport &
Mobility,
Non-proliferation
of Nuclear,
Customer Behaviour,
Demand Response,
Carbon Tax etc.
“ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES/ DECISIONS/ POLICIES DO NOT INSTANTLY FLOW FROM EVIDENCE, DEDUCTIVE LOGIC AND MATHEMATICAL OPTIMIZATION” EDWARD B. ROBERTS
Systems have unique emergent properties.

5. Eskom Technology Systems Model Strategy Scenario Simulator
System Dynamics CoE
EXAMPLES OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPLICATION
Eskom Technology Systems Model
Strategy Scenario Simulator
Gini Coefficient Simulator 5 5

6. System Dynamics CoE Eskom Technology Systems Simulator: E-TechSim
CAUTION: BY RUNNING THE MODEL, YOU HAVE NOT CONSULTED THE ORACLE!!
YOU HAVE A FLIGHT SIMULATOR TO ENGAGE IN STRATEGIC DIALOGUES 6

7. System Dynamics CoE Eskom Technology Systems Simulator: E-TechSim7

8. System Dynamics CoE Organisational Strategy: Eskom Scenario Simulator

9. System Dynamics CoE Organisational Strategy: Eskom Scenario Simulator

10. System Dynamics CoE Exploring Gini Coefficient Dynamics10

11. System Dynamics CoE Research Projects
RESEARCH AREA
PROJECTS
Strategy & Policy
Customer Service Index Model: Dynamics in network performance, customer demands, the walk-in call centres and customer network centres and trouble responses.
Green Bonds Simulator: Will assist EFC and the DBSA to understand the impact of variations in subsidies and tax rebates on attracting players to participate in the concept of green bonds.
Scenario Simulator: Looking at key driving forces including SADC relations.
GINI Coefficient: Sensitivity analysis and relationships between Gini coefficient and electricity tariff increases, electricity intensity, redistributive measures (social grants, subsidies, capital etc).
Supply Dynamics
Eskom Water Simulator: Scope will include the water consumption dynamics through Eskom generation value chain and eventually will be integrated with a global energy model.
Plant Availability Simulator: Assemble empirical basis for linking variables such as UCLF, PCLF, EAF; actual versus scheduled outage programs; experience level of staff etc and its impact on outage creep.
Demand Dynamics
Economic sectors: Will include a simulator that will explore the dynamics within various economic sectors (mining & quarrying; services; agriculture; transport) and the residential sector and its impact on the electricity industry.
Skills Development
Training Course 11

12. “TODAYS SOLUTIONS ARE TOMORROWS PROBLEMS….”
System Dynamics CoE
“TODAYS SOLUTIONS ARE TOMORROWS PROBLEMS….” 12