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12-1-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Unit 12 – Part 1 Gauging Fire Behavior & Guiding Fireline Decisions.

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Presentation on theme: "12-1-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Unit 12 – Part 1 Gauging Fire Behavior & Guiding Fireline Decisions."— Presentation transcript:

1 12-1-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Unit 12 – Part 1 Gauging Fire Behavior & Guiding Fireline Decisions

2 12-2-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Unit 12 Objectives 1.Describe how to apply fire behavior information to safety and suppression decisions. 2.Demonstrate how to calculate the size of safety zones. 3.Identify the importance of changes in fire behavior to firefighter safety.

3 12-3-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 4.Discuss what drives large changes and identify the “next big change.” 5.Demonstrate a simple but systematic method for gauging change and estimating fire spread time. 6.Identify other fire behavior prediction tools. Unit 12 Objectives

4 12-4-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Fire Behavior Affects Safety and Suppression Decisions

5 12-5-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Basic Fire Behavior Measures Flame Length (FL)—a measure of how fast energy is being released at the flaming front. Rate-of-Spread (ROS)—a measure of how fast the fire front is moving.

6 12-6-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 The distance from the middle of the flaming zone to the average flame tip. Flame Length

7 12-7-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part S290-EP Flame Length 12-7-S290-EP

8 12-8-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Applying Flame Length Flame length affects choice of fire suppression tactics and methods. Dictates the dimensions of safe zones.

9 12-9-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Fire Suppression Limitations Fires can generally be attacked at the head or flanks by persons using hand tools. Handline should hold the fire. Fires are too intense for direct attack on the head by persons using hand tools. Handline cannot be relied on to hold the fire. Fires may present serious control problems; torching out, crowning and spotting. Control efforts at the head will probably be ineffective. Crowning, spotting and major fire runs are probable. Control efforts at the head of the fire are ineffective. Flame Length ft ft ft. >11ft.

10 12-10-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Fire Characteristics Chart (light fuels) S290-EP

11 12-11-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Fire Characteristics Chart (heavy fuels) FIRE BEHAVIOR Fire Characteristics Chart (scale for heavy fuels) S290-EP

12 12-12-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Safety Zone Calculations

13 12-13-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Definition of a Safety Zone “An area cleared of flammable materials used for escape in the event the line is outflanked or in case a spot fire causes fuels outside the control line to render the line unsafe. They are greatly enlarged areas which can be used with relative safety by firefighters and their equipment in the event of blowup in the vicinity.”

14 12-14-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 “…used when fire conditions are such that escape routes and safety zones have been compromised. Deployment zones are the last ditch areas where fire shelters must be deployed to ensure firefighter survival due to the available space and/or fire behavior conditions at the deployment zone location.” Definition of a Deployment Zone

15 12-15-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Safety Zone Guidelines Avoid locations that are: downwind from fire in chimneys, saddles, narrow canyons Take advantage of heat barriers Burn out safety zones prior to flame front approach

16 12-16-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Assumptions Safety Zone size calculations are made on the “worst case scenario.” All sides of the safety zone will receive the same heat flux. Based on an crew of 3.

17 12-17-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Fire surrounding a circular shaped safety zone gives the worst case (most radiant heat transfer). Fire and safety zone edge more closely resemble a straight line. Radiant heat transfer from the “sides” is low. x feet

18 12-18-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Assumptions Flame Length = Flame Height Safe separation is a straight line from the heat source to the firefighter

19 12-19-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 USDA Forest Service, Fire Behavior Research Firefighter Safety Zones Distance Separation Firefighter Flaming Front Flame Height

20 12-20-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Safety Zone Equations Flame Height Input: 4 x flame height Consider increasing the distance separation when more than 3 people and 1 engine will occupy the safety zone.

21 12-21-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Circle Safety Zone-Example Distance Separation = the radius of the circle. Flame Height = 20 feet 20’ x 4 = 80’ radius Distance separation = 80 feet Diameter of circle = 80 X 2 = 160’

22 12-22-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Safety Zone Size Assuming no Slope and no Wind FlameDistanceArea in HeightSeparationAcres 10 ft40 ft1/10 acre 20 ft80 ft1/2 acre 50 ft200 ft3 acres 75 ft300 ft7 acres 100 ft400 ft12 acres 200 ft800 ft50 acres

23 12-23-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 More than 3 people and 1 engine will increase the distance requirement. Convective heat from wind or terrain will increase the distance separations requirement.

24 12-24-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Rate of Spread (ROS) Rate of advance of the flame front Can be given in absolute terms, such as feet-per-minute (ft/min) Can be given in relative terms, such as twice as fast as before (2X) Spread Time: The time it will take the fire to move a given distance; it can be determined from ROS.

25 12-25-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 ROS is a key safety factor …if a fire can catch you it can hurt you! Rate of Spread

26 12-26-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Changes in ROS are very important to safety and suppression. A universal factor in fireline accidents is a rapid change in ROS. Rate of Spread

27 12-27-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 ROS can also be used to express how fire spread rate will change Compare the ROS before with the ROS after a change…how much faster or slower will the fire move? ROS-ratio=(bigger ROS)/(smaller ROS) Example: ROS changes from 10 to 60 (or 60 to 10), ROS-ratio = 60/10 = 6X

28 12-28-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 ROS Ratio Example = 6X DIVIDED BY

29 12-29-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 ROS-ratio can indicate the degree of coming danger, and can be used to predict future fire spread time. Rate of Spread Ratio

30 12-30-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 The idea of predicting fire spread in the future, using the “complete application” of FLAME The “next big change” 30 minutes30 more min. If fire moves 3X faster on the slope, it will take 1/3 of 30, or about 10 min. to spread up the slopeobserve predict project The slope is about as long as the 30-min. spread on the flats. Note: these are ‘spread times’, rather than ‘spread rates’, and are very practical for use on the fireline…how long will it take the fire to go from here to there? S290-EP

31 12-31-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 What a Change in ROS Can Mean ROS changes ranging from 60x to 500x have accompanied fireline fatalities. ROS-ratio of 60x means that fire spread that has taken place over hours can suddenly take place in minutes. If walking-pace represents “slow” ROS, an increase of 500x would be the equivalent of twice the speed of sound…a huge relative change. Changes are not instantaneous, and can involve a transition over time (often minutes to 10s of minutes)… But always be aware, change is coming!

32 12-32-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 First Consider “Current” Fire Behavior Current fire behavior demonstrates the effects of current fuels, terrain and weather, and provides a baseline. Factors such as live fuel moisture or 10- hour FM do not change rapidly—they are important overall, but vary over longer time scales.

33 12-33-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Unforeseen Changes Kill Firefighters Rapid, large increase in fire ROS is a common denominator in fatality fires. –ROS increases of 60x and more have been associated with fatality incidents. To be safe requires firefighters: –foresee changes well ahead –have a sense of the size of the change –understand both “current” and “expected” fire behavior

34 12-34-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Quotes from Fatality-Fire Reports “…benign appearance of fire…no appreciable wind during decision making…” “Look what it’s doing now.; …the fire didn’t look that bad…” “…assuming they would see the fire coming at the same rate they had all day.” “…right flank was backing into a light up-canyon wind. …numerous observers reported that the wind had remained light and steady…” “…intensity and rate-of-spread were much greater than had been anticipated…” “…burnout was conditioned upon light upslope winds holding…” Revealing a reliance on impressions of current behavior, a tendency to not foresee the coming dangerous fire behavior.

35 12-35-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Foreseeing Changes in Fire Behavior

36 12-36-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 It is critical for a firefighter to anticipate the “next big change” in plenty of time to confront it. Look ahead at the factors that cause big changes.

37 12-37-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Anticipating the Change Supports LCES Lookouts- What to be looking for, and using the most appropriate lookout locations Communications- What key things to communicate and how often Escape routes- Where and how long Safety zones - Close enough and big enough

38 12-38-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part S290-EP Dominant Change-Makers Litter Crowns (timber & brush) Grass FUEL TYPE is a significant contributor to big changes, changes of 15X or more. WIND (effective wind, which includes slope) is the biggest change-maker, ROS changes of 200X or more S290-EP

39 12-39-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part S290-EP Another Important Factor 1-hour FM can change fairly rapidly and can cause changes up to 1.6x or so (usually less), but it is a minor change-maker compared to fuel-type or wind. Very important: 1-hour FM is a key factor in the potential for crown fire S290-EP

40 12-40-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Typical “Big Change” Events By drawing in the simple pictures both current and expected fire behavior must be consider. If either picture is blank, your evaluation of the fire behavior is incomplete.

41 12-41-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part S290-EP Sudden Wind Change Current conditions - Light winds Expected conditions - Strong winds, direction change What are some examples of wind change? S290-EP

42 12-42-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Change in Fuel Type Current conditions - Litter fire Expected conditions - Crown fire S290-EP

43 12-43-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Slope Reversal a major change, often in both fuel and wind Current conditions - Upslope crown fire - Wind-exposed Expected conditions - Downslope litter fire - Wind-sheltered Favorable change S290-EP

44 12-44-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part S290-EP Current conditions - Downslope litter fire - Wind-sheltered Expected conditions - Upslope crown fire - Wind-exposed Dangerous change S290-EP Slope Reversal

45 12-45-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Gauging the Changes in Fire Behavior

46 12-46-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 How much does ROS change as fuel factors, wind, and slope change? We’ll look at each factor, to develop our sense of change, and eventually learn to apply guidelines to assess changes in fire behavior.

47 12-47-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 A scaled diagram can help develop a sense of change to expect as conditions change. Specific guidelines will allow us to consider any change in: - fuel type - wind - slope

48 12-48-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Consider first the effects of changing fine dead fuel moisture (FDFM), a fairly large change, equivalent to a substantial change in relative humidity. Later we’ll introduce a guideline for gauging the effect of FDFM on ROS.

49 12-49-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 FDFM: Timber Litter 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 2% ROS = 6 ch/h FL = 3 ft. 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 10% ROS = 3 ch/h FL = 2 ft S290-EP

50 12-50-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 FDFM: Logging Slash 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 2% ROS = 13 ch/h FL = 9 ft. 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 10% ROS = 7 ch/h FL = 6 ft S290-EP

51 12-51-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 FDFM: Short Grass 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 2% ROS = 53 ch/h FL = 4 ft. 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 10% ROS = 20 ch/h FL = 2 ft S290-EP

52 12-52-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 FDFM: Tall Grass 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 6% ROS = 96 ch/h FL = 14 ft. 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 10% ROS = 49 ch/h FL = 9 ft S290-EP

53 12-53-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 FDFM: Shrub 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 2% ROS = 63 ch/h FL = 20 ft. 1-hour fine dead fuel moisture = 10% ROS = 44 ch/h FL = 15 ft S290-EP

54 12-54-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Changes in Fuel Type Produce Large Changes in Fire Behavior

55 12-55-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part S290-EP Fuels are grouped into fuel-types based on their similarities in ROS. Litter is a dead, compact, horizontal fuel Crown foliage is a live, vertically arranged, open fuel Grass is a dead, vertically arranged, open fuel slowest fastest S290-EP

56 12-56-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Effect of Fuel-type on Relative Rate-of-Spread Litter 1x ROS in crown fuels about 4x faster than in litter ROS in grass fuels about 3x or 4x faster than in crowns Other factors being equal This is only about fuel-types Crown 4x Grass 15x S290-EP

57 12-57-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Fuel-Types often Change with Aspect S N S N S N

58 12-58-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Transition Fire Behavior: an Important Change in Fuel-Type Can become crown fire Such changes between fuel beds that are stacked vertically can be very rapid and may be difficult to foresee. Surface fire (litter or grass)

59 12-59-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Indicators of Crown-Fire Potential Seasonal drought period prevails Overall drought makes matters worse Recent crown fire Relative Humidity 35%-20%, or less Backing fire produces torching Fire moving up ladder fuels Torching and short crown runs

60 12-60-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Effective Wind Speed (EWS) Combines the effects of wind and slope. Think of EWS as the midflame wind speed (MFWS). It is a huge driver of change!

61 12-61-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Key Questions 1.How does wind vary from place to place? 2.How does wind at flame level vary with fuel type? 3.How do we account for slope?

62 12-62-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part S290-EP Wind speed is the component of the wind that is pushing the fire ahead into new fuels. Across the heel, wind has least effect on fire spread Across the flank, wind parallels the flame front; little net wind influence Across the head, full wind effect Midflame wind speed Most of the time we’ll consider either head fire or backing/flanking fire S290-EP

63 12-63-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part S290-EP How We Express Changes in Effective Wind Speed As the ratio of the bigger to the smaller wind speed (very much like the ROS-ratio) For example: 6 mi/hr The bigger wind speed ex: 2 mi/hr The smaller wind speed = 3x in our example; (i.e. the wind speed will triple) The ratio of the wind speeds, the EWS-ratio. = Divided by S290-EP

64 12-64-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Calculating EWS-Ratio Smaller EWS  Larger EWS  In this example, the bigger wind is 6 and the smaller wind is 2… a tripling of EWS S290-EP

65 12-65-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Effects of Doubling the Wind Speed on ROS and FL

66 12-66-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Midflame Wind: Timber litter Midflame Wind = 4 m.p.h. ROS = 6 ch/h FL = 3 ft. Midflame Wind = 2 m.p.h. ROS = 2 ch/h FL = 2 ft S290-EP

67 12-67-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Midflame Wind: Logging Slash Midflame Wind = 4 m.p.h. ROS = 11 ch/h FL = 7 ft. Midflame Wind = 2 m.p.h. ROS = 6 ch/h FL = 5 ft S290-EP

68 12-68-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Midflame Wind: Short Grass Midflame Wind = 4 m.p.h. ROS = 61 ch/h FL = 4 ft. Midflame Wind = 2 m.p.h. ROS = 18 ch/h FL = 2 ft S290-EP

69 12-69-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Midflame Wind: Tall Grass Midflame Wind = 4 m.p.h. ROS = 89 ch/h FL = 12 ft. Midflame Wind = 2 m.p.h. ROS = 39 ch/h FL = 8 ft S290-EP

70 12-70-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Midflame Wind: Shrub Midflame Wind = 4 m.p.h. ROS = 72 ch/h FL = 20 ft. Midflame Wind = 2 m.p.h. ROS = 30 ch/h FL = 13 ft S290-EP

71 12-71-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Effects of Slope Alone (from Gentle to Steep)

72 12-72-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Slope: Timber Litter Slope = 8% ROS = 1 ch/h FL = 1 ft. Slope = 24% ROS = 2 ch/h FL = 2 ft. Slope = 72% ROS = 8 ch/h FL = 3 ft S290-EP

73 12-73-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Slope: Logging Slash Slope = 8% ROS = 2 ch/h FL = 3 ft. Slope = 24% ROS = 3 ch/h FL = 4 ft. Slope = 72% ROS = 13 ch/h FL = 8 ft S290-EP

74 12-74-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Slope: Short Grass Slope = 8% ROS = 5 ch/h FL = 1 ft. Slope = 24% ROS = 14 ch/h FL = 2 ft S290-EP

75 12-75-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Slope: Tall Grass Slope = 8% ROS = 6 ch/h FL = 3 ft. Slope = 24% ROS = 14 ch/h FL = 5 ft S290-EP

76 12-76-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Slope: Shrub Slope = 8% ROS = 6 ch/h FL = 6 ft. Slope = 24% ROS = 14 ch/h FL = 9 ft S290-EP

77 12-77-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Add the Influence of Slope to the Wind to Get the Effective Wind Speed Slope acts like a little more upslope wind, increasing the efficiency of heat transfer to new fuel. As a guideline, add a little bit to the upslope wind speed to account for slope (mostly on upslope fires).

78 12-78-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Effective Wind, the Slope Contribution 20% 40% 80% 60% Less than 20%, no adjustment 1 mph 20% to 40%, add 1 mph 2 mph 40% to 60%, add 2 mph 3 mph 60% to 80%, add 3 mph Add the contribution for slope to the upslope wind component 5 mph Over 80%, add 5 mph S290-EP

79 12-79-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Combine Slope Contribution and Mid-Flame Wind in EWS Wind Blows UPSLOPE: Add 6 MFWS 2 + slope = 8 EWS Wind Blows DOWNSLOPE: Subtract 6 MFWS - slope 2 = EWS 4 NEVER USE EWS < ½ For fires backing upslope into the wind set EWS = ½ S290-EP

80 12-80-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 Potential Magnitude of Fuel and Wind Effects on Short-Term Changes in ROS FM in large and live fuels~ 1.2x FM in fine fuels~ 1.6x Fuel type (litter, crown, grass)~ 15x Effective Wind Speed~ 200x It is clear that fuel type and effective wind speed dominate changes in ROS. The FireLine Assessment MEthod, FLAME concentrates on those factors.

81 12-81-S290-EP Gauging Fire Behavior and Guiding Fireline Decisions Unit 12 Part 1 End of Unit 12 - Part 1


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