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© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 1 Finance, meet Big Data.
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 2 2 Big data meets traditional financial services Founded and led by Douglas Merrill, the former CIO of Google Nearly $50M in funding from Lightspeed, Matrix and others The team is mostly data geeks, math whizzes, and financial analysts from prestigious universities and top companies Based in Los Angeles
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 3 3 Our mission: Make fair and transparent credit available to everyone
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 4 4 We unlock credit in spaces with large amounts of missing or inaccurate data 1.ZestCash – US consumer lending in deep subprime (FICO ), offering a 50% lower cost payday loan alternative. 2.Main Street – US consumer lending in near prime (FICO ), offering consumers greater access to credit at better rates. 3.International – Emerging credit markets where there is huge demand for credit and consumer data infrastructure is not fully developed.
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 5 5 Continually focusing on new and better models improves our underwriting Models are continually refined as we… Collect more data Uncover new data sources Develop new algorithms Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Underwriting Laplac e HollerithHilbertAkaikeNeyman Marketing (ITA) Smith Wilcoxon Marketing (PAP) Jones Friedman Collections Kelly
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 6 6 Our models have significantly reduced first payment default (FPD)… New Model Launches
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 7 7 …while dramatically increasing customer payback New Model Launches
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 8 8 We use a variety of ML techniques and ensemble models to predict payback Random Forest Models Support Vector Machines Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Boosted Trees Targets First Pay Default Subsequent Pay Default Prepayment Ensemble Target Heterogeneous Payback Ensemble Repeats
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 9 9 We find subtle, surprising, hidden relationships between signals For unverified applicants, higher income amount signals higher credit risk Personal information:
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 10 © 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 10 We handle missing data by understanding the dataset and its meanings Sometimes missing data is just that – missing. But sometimes missing data is meaningful Our understanding of the data and underlying biases makes our models far more powerful
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 11 © 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 11 Multiple views of the “same” thing makes models more powerful Each data source provides overlapping information, so we sometimes see multiple, different copies of the “same” signal Not all data is correct; but sometimes seeing differences on the “same” value across different sources creates new meaningful signals Useful in fraud models, but also part of marketing, underwriting models
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 12 © 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 12 Our models have become increasingly resilient to missing data Off The Shelf Segmented Regression Machine Learning We are able to include more missing data as we get better at … deriving new signals across data sources imputation
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 13 © 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 13 Problem -- Proper model rollout requires understanding of blind spots and relative performance of “swap in” population Solution -- Zest has built automated tools to identify possible blind spots in our feature space We were once hit by a blind spot Blind Spot Training Set Entire Applicant Population
© 2014 ZestFinance, Inc. 14
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