1. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Danish Emissions Inventory for Black Carbon Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting and Workshop 2nd - 4th May 2011, Stockholm, Sweden Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Department of Policy Analysis National Environmental Research Institute Aarhus University

2. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Disposition ›Background ›Environmental concerns ›Inventory and general approach ›Activity data ›Stationary sources ›Mobile sources ›Emission factors ›Stationary sources ›Mobile sources ›Calculation method ›Results ›Conclusions

3. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Background The part of the total particles (TSP) emitted as primary carbonaceous aerosols during fuel combustion are classified as Black C arbon (BC) and Organic Carbon (OC). BC is the light-absorbing part of the particles (soot) BC has global warming properties due to it’s ability to absorb light over reflective surfaces, and due to it’s darkening effect when deposited to snow and ice surfaces Due to the relatively short residence time in the atmosphere (weeks), BC is regarded as a short-lived climate forcer (SLCF), and seen from a global warming perspective the short term benefits of reducing BC seems promising

4. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Background This presentation explains the first BC emission inventory made for Denmark, covering all fuel consumption sources The inventory period is 1990-2030 The full project also cover Greenland and the Faroe Islands, with OC estimates being made as well. Basis: A detailed inventory of TSP, and BC shares of TSP In general, the activity data and emf’s shown in the following are somewhat aggregated, due to the large number of emission layers in the inventory as such.

5. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Activity data – stationary sources Residential plants: Stoves, boilers, fireplacesLarge point sources: Power plants, district heating plants, refineries Small comb. sources in commercial/institutional, agriculture, manufacturing industries sectors

6. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Activity data Fuel data from Danish Energy Authority (DEA); historical and forecast Sharp increase from 2000-2008 is due to increase in fuel prices for other fuels than wood, and popularity (cosiness). Penetration of technologies from 2000+ examined by Illerup et al. (2007) Less detailed info exist for 1990-1999, assumptions are made in order to stratify into technologies

7. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Diesel fuel consumption stratified into technologies by using 1) DK fleet/mileage data, 2) COPERT IV FC factors, and 3) fuel data from DEA; fuel results aggregated from engine size/weight class The later year’s dieselification of the car fleet is very visible; it is expected to continue in the future

8. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen DEA – straight out: Railways, military, fisheries Non road machinery and navigation: Bottom-up Fuel shares for Stage IIIB-IV (PM filters) are more dominant for agriculture compared to industry

9. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Emission factors Residential wood and other stationary TSP: Danish inventory (misc. sources) BC: GAINS (Kupiainen and Klimont, 2004;2007) Road transport exhaust and non exhaust TSP: COPERT IV BC: COPERT IV (exh.)/GAINS (non exh.) Other mobile sources TSP: Danish inventory (misc. sources) BC: Railways, non road, military; r oad transport analogies BC: Navigation (plume measurements; Lack et al. (2009)) BC: Aviation: (own assumptions based on GAINS)

10. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Calculation method: Exhaust sources E = emissions in tonnes FC = fuel consumption in PJ EF = emission factor in g GJ -1 i = emission component, j = mobile category/stationary sector k = technology, f = fuel type, y = inventory year E = emissions in tonnes M = total mileage (10 9 km) EF = emission factor in mg km -1 i = emission component, j = vehicle type k = wear type, y = inventory year Calculation method: Non-exhaust (brake/tyre/road wear)

11. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Results The total emissions of TSP and BC decrease by 14 % and 28 %, respectively from 1990-2030 Residential plants is the largest source: TSP and BC emission shares were 70 % and 62 % in 2008. Residential plants: TSP and BC emissions drop by 16% and 28 % from 1990-2030 TSP and BC emission changes for smaller sources: Road exhaust (-93%, -97%), other mobile (-84%,-87%), other stationary (-3%,+9%),road non-exhaust (+65%, +68%).

12. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen From 2008-2030, the TSP[BC] emissions decrease by 59%[61%] BC shares of TSP are assumed to be constant for stoves and boilers. This is due to lack of data.

13. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Euro 5+ cars (vans), must have filters installed in order to meet the EU limits Filters even more efficiently removes black carbon The calculated BC share of TSP drops from 82 % in 2008 to 14 % in 2030 Diesel cars BC% of TSP Euro 1: 70% Euro 2: 80% Euro 3: 85% Euro 4: 87% Euro 5: 10% Euro 6: 10%

14. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Euro VI trucks (buses), filters are required due to the emission legislation limits The BC share of TSP is expected to drop from 67 % in 2008 to 18 % in 2030 Trucks BC% of TSP Euro 1: 65% Euro 2: 65% Euro 3: 70% Euro 4: 75% Euro 5: 75% Euro 6: 15%

15. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Agriculture: Stage IIIB-IV are equipped with filters; hence BC reductions > TSP reductions Industry: No filter requirements for engines < 37 kW, fuel share being significant; hence low impact on BC

16. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Conclusions The total emissions of TSP and BC decrease by 14 % and 28 %, respectively from 1990-2030 Residential combustion is the largest source of TSP and BC emissions; 2008 calculated shares are 70 % and 62 %, respectively Filters very efficiently reduce BC: For diesel cars[trucks], the BC shares of TSP go from 82%[67%] in 2008 to 14%[18%] in 2030.

17. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Conclusions Emission measurements of BC shares of TSP are needed for residential wood combustion installations in order to improve the BC inventories Filter technology for residential stoves and for small non road engines needs to be developed; the potential TSP and BC emission savings are large. The work made in this project may serve as an input for other inventory makers in Europe, and as input for dispersion modelling, following a GIS distribution of the emission results

18. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY 3 May 2011 Morten Winther and Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Thank you for your attention! The present project has been funded by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency as part of the environmental support program DANCEA – Danish Cooperation for Environment in the Arctic. The inventory emission results serve as an input for the Task Force on Short Lived Climate Forcers under the Arctic Council.