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NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | OCTOBER 9, 2014 Brian Morse Manager, Gas Supply Recent Developments That Affect North American Gas Supply.

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Presentation on theme: "NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | OCTOBER 9, 2014 Brian Morse Manager, Gas Supply Recent Developments That Affect North American Gas Supply."— Presentation transcript:

1 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | OCTOBER 9, 2014 Brian Morse Manager, Gas Supply Recent Developments That Affect North American Gas Supply

2 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Safe Harbor Statement Some of the statements in this document concerning future company performance will be forward-looking within the meanings of the securities laws. Actual results may materially differ from those discussed in these forward-looking statements, and you should refer to the additional information contained in Spectra Energy’s Form 10-K and other filings made with the SEC concerning factors that could cause those results to be different than contemplated in today's discussion. Reg G Disclosure In addition, today’s discussion includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under SEC Regulation G. A reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available on our website. 2

3 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Recap: U.S. Gas Supply & Demand 3 Source: EIA and other public data sources

4 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Canadian Gas Exports to the U.S. (2007 vs. 2013) 4 Sumas GTN Northern Border Minnesota Alliance & North Dakota Niagara Iroquois Source: Energy Information Administration

5 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Recap: Western Canada Production 5 13 Bcf/d 5 Bcf/d Source: Alberta and B.C. Governments

6 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Perspective on Horizontal Wells 6 Duvernay Horn River Montney Calgary Skyline 215 m

7 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 7 B.C. Resource Estimates Montney (liquids-rich) gas production is growing in all three sub-regions of Western Canada, in step with gathering, processing and liquids extraction infrastructure development. Source: Energy Briefing Note – The Ultimate Potential for Unconventional Petroleum from the Montney Formation of British Columbia and Alberta

8 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | B.C. Drilling Response to Lower Gas Exports 8 Source: B.C. Government

9 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Montney Production Responds to Drilling 9 BC Alberta Source: Alberta and B.C. Governments 1,630 MMcf/d 900 MMcf/d 650 MMcf/d

10 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | North-South Split Forecast 10 NEB BC Tight Gas Forecast North Montney South Montney 3.7 Bcf/d 2.8 Bcf/d 57% of B.C. Fairway acreage 43% of B.C. Fairway acreage Source: National Energy Board (NEB), 2013

11 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Utica is Established 11 Marcellus Utica Source: EIA

12 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Source: Wood Mackenzie, October 2011 via Nexen Investor Presentation Horn River Montney Duvernay Barnett Marcellus Eagle Ford Haynesville 12 Relative Ranking of Established Gas Supply Sources in North America *Supply Cost: Includes capital costs, operating costs, transportation, government take and a 10% return under full field development

13 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Source: 2011 MIT Study on the Future of Natural Gas, Figure 2.10 North American gas supplies are large and have widely varying associated costs The recent shale gas supply surge has added large sources of supply with relatively low development costs There are approximately 900 Tcf available at a cost of supply of $4.00/Mcf, or less 13 Gas Price vs. Gas Supply Quantity is not the issue... price is Tcf of Gas Available

14 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 900 Tcf available at $4.00/Mcf or less Compared to U.S. and Canada’s cumulative gas demand Includes LNG exports and domestic growth in residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation demand Cumulative consumption does not reach 900 Tcf in the next 25 years Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration and Canadian National Energy Board 2011 Forecast 14 How Much is 900 Tcf? * LNG Exports assumes first exports of 6 Bcf/day in 2015, increasing to 20 Bcf/d in 2022, then flat

15 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Proposed West Coast LNG Projects 15 NameParticipants Size Bcf/d LocationSpecificPipeline NEB Export Permit Obtained West Coast Canada LNG Imperial Oil/ExxonMobil Canada3.8Prince Rupert Grassy Point or Tuck Inlet Not determined Aurora LNGNexen (CNOOC), INPEX, and JGC3.1Prince Rupert Grassy Point or Digby Island Not determined LNG Canada Shell Canada, PetroChina Company, Korea Gas Corp and Mitsubishi Corp 3.1KitimatDouglas ChannelCoastal GasLink Pipeline (TCPL) Prince Rupert LNG BG Group2.7Prince RupertRidley Island Westcoast Connector Gas Transmission Project (Spectra Energy) Pacific Northwest LNG Progress Energy, PETRONAS and Japan Petroleum Exploration Company 2.7Prince RupertLelu Island Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project (TCPL) Jordan Cove Energy Project Veresen Inc.1.6 Coos Bay, Oregon North Spit Existing Fortis & GTN then new Pacific Connector Gas Pipeline (Williams & Veresen) Kitimat LNG Apache Canada Limited and Chevron Canada Limited 1.3KitimatBish Cove Merrick Mainline (TCPL) and Pacific Trail Pipeline (Chevron) Oregon LNGLeucadia National Corporation1.3 Warrenton, Oregon Skipanon Peninsula Oregon Pipeline to existing Williams pipeline Triton LNG AltaGas Limited, Idemitsu Canada Corporation 0.3 Kitimat or Prince Rupert Floating facilityExisting PNG Woodfibre LNG Project Woodfibre LNG Limited0.3SquamishOld pulp mill siteFortis and Spectra Douglas Channel LNG Douglas Channel Gas Services, Haisla Nation, Golar LNG, LNG Partners LLC 0.2Kitimat West bank of Douglas Channel. Barge. Existing PNG NEB Export Permit Pending Stewart Energy LNG Canada Stewart Energy Group Ltd3.8StewartFloating facility initiallyNot determined Grassy Point LNGWoodside Energy Ltd.2.8Prince Rupert Grassy Point (on shore or floating) Not determined Kitsault Energy 2.6KitsaultFloating facility initiallyNot determined Discovery LNGQuicksilver Resources2.6Campbell RiverElk Falls Mill siteNot determined Steelhead LNG Steelhead LNG Corp. and Huu-ay-aht First Nation 0.8Port AlberniSarita BayNot determined WesPacWesPac Midstream0.4DeltaTilbury IslandExisting or expanded Fortis Watson Island LNG Watson Island LNG Corp and City of Prince Rupert smallPrince RupertWatson IslandNot determined

16 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | B.C. LNG Locations 16 Kitsault Stewart Prince Rupert Kitimat Campbell River Port Alberni Squamish Delta

17 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Oregon LNG Locations 17 Warrenton Coos Bay NWP GTN Proposed Connector Malin

18 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Reaction to China Russia Gas Supply Announcement 18 Massive Russia-China gas deal to shake up LNG markets The Globe and Mail Russia-China Natural Gas Deal to Set LNG Price Floor Bank of America Russia-China gas deal puts heat on BC’s LNG sector Vancouver Sun Russia-China gas deal could squeeze economics of Canadian LNG projects TD Russia and China’s $400 billion natural gas deal is bad news for BC LNG. Canadian Business The world does not need Canadian LNG former Shell exec China’s natural gas supply options greatly exceed market requirements CanadaWest Foundation 3.8 Bcf/d x 30 years

19 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | Russian Supply Perspective 19 Source: Gazprom, Rosneft, Novatek, BP Statistical Review of World Energy

20 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | China Demand Perspective 20 Source: Energy Information Administration, BP Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency

21 NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | New U.S. Demand Identified 21 GTL High returns with methane feedstock prices low and liquid products prices high Smaller strategically placed projects expected to be funded Proposed locations in Marcellus-Utica, Gulf Coast and Rockies currently Methanol Used as a petrochemical feedstock and to produce gasoline Low cost gas feedstock and rising demand worldwide for methanol attract investment Facilities planned in Gulf Coast area and West Coast for export to China Fertilizer Producing ammonia and nitrogen requires natural gas for hydrogen content and heat energy Domestic demand is up and feedstock (gas) prices are down Planned locations more spread out than GTL or Methanol Transportation Road, rail, and shipping industries gradually migrating to natural gas fuel Proposed facilities dedicated to large airports GTL 400 MMcf/d 13% Magnitude 3 Bcf/d Demand Growth (to 2018) Methanol 1,000 MMcf/d 33% Transportation 500 mmcf/d 17% Fertilizer 1,100 MMcf/d 37%

22 Recognized by:


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