1. The Gathering Storm in Education

2. The Coming “Perfect Storm” in American Education : Trends for 2008-2014 F. Joseph Merlino, Principal Investigator and Director The Math Science Partnership of Greater Philadelphia

3. Trends For 2008-2014 Ten Major Demographic, economic, and political currents that have been gaining energy during the 1 st decade of the 21 st century. These trends will likely collide as America starts its 2nd decade. Ten Major Demographic, economic, and political currents that have been gaining energy during the 1 st decade of the 21 st century. These trends will likely collide as America starts its 2nd decade. The resultant “storm surge” poses a substantial threat of prolonged erosion to American economic, educational and political institutions. The resultant “storm surge” poses a substantial threat of prolonged erosion to American economic, educational and political institutions.

4. # 1 Increased Per Pupil Education Expenditures # 2 Continued and Increased School District Accountability by Federal and State Government s # 3 The NCLB “Accountability Squeeze” # 4 Persistent “Achievement Gaps” # 5 Increasing Racial and Ethnic Diversity as Percentage of US Population # 6 High School and College Dropouts and “Drop downs” # 10 Domestic Human STEM Capital Shortage + Insufficient Numbers of Skilled Foreign Workers # 8 Stiffer Competition from Abroad in STEM Talent # 9 Declining of Flat Interest In STEM and Life Sciences # 7 Increased Demand for Post Secondary Studies (but many students not well prepared) “Storm” Trends

5. Trend # 1 Increased Costs and Decreased in Perceived Improvements in Public Education Pupil Education Expenditures Increasing in Constant Dollars Due to Greater Percent of Students in Special Education, English Language Learners, Poor, Minorities, Increase Demand in Teacher Quality, Low Teacher Supply in Key Areas, Employee Health Care Costs, Retirement Benefits

6.  From 1988–89 to 2001–02, increased 22 percent.  From 2001–02 to 2013–14, are projected to increase: 21 percent, to $9,500, in the low alternative projections; 27 percent, to $10,000, in the middle alternative projections; 34 percent, to $10,600, in the high alternative projections. K-12 Education expenditures per pupil In constant 2002–03 dollars

7.  From 1988–89 to 2001–02 k-12 educational expenditures increased 45 percent  From 2001–02 to 2013–14, expenditures projected to increase 26 percent, to $473 billion, in the low alternative projections; 32 percent, to $ 498 billion, in the middle alternative projections 39 percent, to $525 billion, in the high alternative projections. TOTAL k-12 Educational Expenditures in constant 2002–03 dollars

8. “I have never seen a service sector…that combines fiscal allocation, political accommodations and cultural views in such a manner to produce results that are so oriented toward the provider’s employment interests rather than to the needs and desires of the customers –our students and their parents. The world seems topsy-turvey, upside down.. I concluded that it was quite unreasonable to ask people in a system that serves their needs quite well to change that system fundamentally on behalf of values they support rhetorically but not actually…It is not a system that even remotely puts children first. [ 1][ 1] [1][1] Alan Bersin A Theory of Action for High School Reform, Carnegie Corporation New York 2006 Amid concerns about effectiveness of what is being spent…

9. “First,... by every means necessary, protect your turf. Second, resist change. Third, expand one’s sphere of control, always hoping to control more and more resources and authority. Fourth, enlarge the number of subordinates underneath you because having subordinates means having power, having election workers, and keeping yourself in office. Next, protect programs and projects regardless of whether they are effective or not. Finally, maintain the ability to distribute the greatest amounts of wealth from taxpayers to people and organizations of your own choosing.” (Cory Booker, Mayor of Newark 2001)

10. Trend # 2 Continued and Increased School District Accountability by Federal and State Government s Due to: 1.Rising Education Expenditures in constant dollars per pupil and overall 2.Concerns about effectiveness of resource allocations (tax $$) 3.Importance of Higher Levels of Education to the Economy 4.Political Disenfranchisement of Growing Portions of Latinos and Blacks resulting from inequities in “opportunities to learn”.

11. No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Federal Requires K-12 Public School Districts Must Make Steady Progress Toward Reaching 100% Proficiency For 41 Subgroups of Students in Math and Reading All Schools within a District by 2014 Risk Losing Federal Education Money Trend # 3 The NCLB “Accountability Squeeze” Each School must make “Adequate Yearly Progress” (AYP) based on a ever increasing percentage of their student being “Proficient”.

12. What does Adequate Yearly Progress Measure? AYP measures student results for three indicators, Attendance (for schools without a high school graduating class) or Graduation Rate (for schools with a high school graduating class); Academic Performance; and Test Participation. The details of AYP measurement can be complicated

13. States determine AYP performance targets based on students' standardized test scores each year. The Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) uses the Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA) to determine AYP performance. Grades 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 11 Participation in and performance on the PSSA is a cornerstone of measuring AYP results. As measured by the PSSA, students' scores fall into one of four levels: Advanced (highest) Proficient ************************************ Basic Below Basic (lowest)

14. Attendance: If a school does not have a senior graduating class, the attendance rate for the entire school must be 90%, or any improvement from the previous year if rate is below 90%. Graduation: If a school has a high school graduating class, the graduation rate for this class must be 80% or show any improvement from the previous year if rate is below 80%.

15. AYP STATUS LEVELS

17. Pennsylvania Schools and Districts AYP for 2004-05 and 2005-06 2004-05 2005-06 www.paayp.com

18. PA Statewide School AYP Status 2006

19. Math Reading

22. Proportion of PA High Schools that Reached AYP Proficiency Overall in 11th Grade Math 226 34% 192 29% 247 37%

23. Persistent and Large Differences in Math and Reading Proficiencies in Elementary, Middle and High School Between: Asians and Whites, Whites and Black and Hispanics Economically Disadvantaged, Special Education, English Language Learners and those white English speaking students from moderate to high SES backgrounds Trend # 4 “Achievement Gaps”

24. PA State Overall Results in Mathematics 2005

25. PA State Overall Results in Mathematics 2006

26. Below BasicAdvanced 11th Grade PSSA by Race 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70 % Asian White Black Hispanic

27. PA STATE PSSA MATH 8 th Grade 2006 versus 2005

28. Likely Outcomes 1. 50% of all PA high schools will not reach AYP in 2008, 2. More than 90% of PA schools will fail to reach 100% Proficiency in Math,Reading and Science by 2014 for all students. 3. Persistent Achievement and Graduation Gaps in NCLB categories Crisis points: 1.Credibility of NCLB and “Corrective Action” sanctions. “So what if we fail? What can the state really do with so many?” 2. Inability of states and schools to improve student learning for all students at sufficient levels as reflected in high stakes state tests. 3. Widening social and personal inequities, increased proportion of low knowledge young people in a high knowledge economy.

29. Poorer Hispanic and Black Populations Continue to Grow as Percentage of US Population Young People are Fasting Growing Minority Segment Trend # 5 Increasing Racial and Ethnic Diversity as Percentage of US Population

32. Trend # 6 High School and College Dropouts and “Drop downs”

34. Rising to the Challenge Are High School Graduates Prepared For College & Work? Key findings from surveys among public high school graduates, college instructors, and employers Conducted December 2004–January 2005 for # 7 Increased Demand for Post Secondary Studies but many students not prepared

36. Few Employers Feel High School Graduates Prepared For Advancement Applicants with no high school degree Recent public high school grads who have no further education/training Recent grads of two-year college or training program Recent graduates of four-year colleges

37. Employers/Instructors Dissatisfied With High Schools’ Skills Prep ( In each area, % saying they are somewhat/very dissatisfied with the job public high schools are doing preparing graduates ) Thinking analytically Work and study habits Applying what is learned in school to solving problems Computer skills College instructorsEmployers 29% very dissatisfied 22% very dissatisfied 16% very dissatisfied 17% very dissatisfied

38. College Instructors Are Harshest Critics Of High School Do public high schools adequately prepare graduates to meet the expectations they face in college Employers 70% 28% In first-year classes, how much class time do you spend reviewing material and skills that should have been taught in high school? Significant amount of class time (24%) Some class time Very little class time No class time Do not adequately prepare graduates Adequately prepare graduates

41. # 8 Stiffer Competition from Abroad in STEM Talent

44. Program for International Students Assessment

45. High School Graduate Science Performance

46. High School Graduate Math Performance

47. #9 Declining of Flat Interest In STEM and Life Sciences

49. Pennsylvania SAT Reasoning Test Test-Takers Mean Scores Intended College Major Number Pct Critical1998 VerbalMath 2006 ReadingMathWriting Agriculture or Natural Resources 1,4531.6%487477 7940.8%473471455 Architecture or Environmental Design 1,7671.9%491513 2,0482.0%483517476 Arts: Visual and Performing 5,3335.9%511486 5,8475.7%508490497 Biological Sciences 4,4124.9%539534 3,6763.6% 530534518 Business and Commerce 10,28111.3%479492 9,3639.1%479498470 Communications 3,3953.7%515485 3,0623.0%514490509 Computer or Information Sciences 3,6444.0%497514 2,7152.6% 503527474 Education 10,20611.2%481474 9,6279.3%477481473 Engineering and Engineering Technologies 5,6706.2%525562 4,4984.3% 524577507 Foreign or Classical Languages 4120.5%547526 5960.6%577547562 General or Interdisciplinary Studies 1790.2%536512 2470.2%516497512 Health and Allied Services 13,48914.8%490492 13,06712.6%475483470 Home Economics 4100.5%456447 2960.3%466465456 Language and Literature 1,0331.1%606541 1,2331.2%595529583 Library and Archival Sciences 410.0%537495 470.0%586515533 Mathematics 4370.5%549619 6790.7% 534614530 Military Sciences 3280.4%495502 3020.3%502510482 Philosophy, Religion, or Theology 4190.5%551523 4050.4%546518516 Physical Sciences 1,3311.5%557571 1,1531.1% 547579530 Public Affairs and Services 2,6963.0%459448 2,2022.1%457451442 Social Sciences and History 8,3669.2%523496 6,3966.2%527503511 Technical and Vocational 1,1841.3%437442 1,0231.0% 426440408 Undecided 5,1735.7%493496 2,4822.4%491504479 81,659 89.8% 71,75869.4% Blank 9,286 10.2% 31,687 30.6% Total Test Takers90,945 100.0%497495 103,445 100.0%493500483 SD107113106 89,198 SAT I Mean Scores PA 1st Time College Freshman Enrollment 2005-06

53. “Substantial increases in those segments of America’s young population with the lowest level of education, combined with the coming retirement of the baby boomers—the most highly educated generation in U.S. history—are projected to lead to a drop in the average level of education of the U.S. workforce over the next two decades, unless states do a better job of raising the educational level of all racial/ethnic groups. Trend # 10 Domestic Human STEM Capital Shortage + Insufficient Numbers of Skilled Foreign Workers ""Policy Alert" by the Nat'l Center for Public Policy and Higher Education

57. Washington, DC Feb. 24-27, 2007

58. GOVERNOR RENDELL CREATES NEW COMMISSIONS TO TRAIN TEACHERS AND PREPARE HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE AND CAREERS August 2005

61. "The projected decline in educational levels coincides with the growth of a knowledge-based economy that requires most workers to have higher levels of education. At the same time, the expansion of a global economy allows industry increased flexibility in hiring workers overseas. As other developed nations continue to improve the education of their workforces, the United States and its workers will increasingly find themselves at a competitive disadvantage. "In addition, a drop in the average level of education of U.S. workers would depress personal income levels for Americans, in turn creating a corresponding decrease in the nation’s tax base. The projected declines in educational and income levels can be reversed, however, if states do a better job of increasing the education of all their residents, particularly those populations that are growing fastest. ""Policy Alert" by the Nat'l Center for Public Policy and Higher Education