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African Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, The South African Institute of Chartered Accountants.

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Presentation on theme: "African Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, The South African Institute of Chartered Accountants."— Presentation transcript:

1 African Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, The South African Institute of Chartered Accountants and CFO magazine 1

2 CFO Global and African Business Outlook – Overview 2 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Global Business Outlook Duke University has surveyed CFOs around the world every quarter since 1996, most of those years jointly with CFO magazine. The survey takes the pulse of the business community and has a strong record of predicting future economic activity. The results are relied upon by Central Bankers, Analysts, Investors, and are widely reported in the press. SAICA and the African Business Outlook SAICA joined the survey in 2013, helping to found the African Business Outlook. South African results are highlighted in the analysis, as are results from Nigeria and the rest of Africa, enabling SAICA and other survey partners to share key insights about the African economy with members of the Institute and others focusing on Africa. The analysis in this report will assist companies to make important business decisions as they can benchmark themselves against their global peers. The long run goal is to develop a large and steady set of responding African firms. Key Survey Facts  Survey Respondents: 48  Of which, 43 from South Africa, 2 from Nigeria, and 3 from other parts of Africa  The small number of respondents may skew some results outside of South Africa  Sample includes CFOs from both public and private companies representing a broad range of industries  Retail/Wholesale, Mining/Construction, Manufacturing, Transportation/Energy, Communications/Media, Technology, and Banking/Finance/Insurance  Certain questions are constant each quarter, to capture trends in corporate optimism, expected hiring and capital investment plans, inflation, wages, and many other categories.  Other questions change each quarter to examine topical economic issues and newsworthy business or political events that may affect the landscape of corporate finance.

3 Sentiment Regarding Domestic Economy 3 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 When ranked on a 100 point scale, the African Optimism Index (for the economic prospects of the continent over the next year) decreased from 53.9 in Q to 47.8 in Q (South Africa: 45.9; ROA: 60). African optimism about the next 12 months remains low Trends in South African Optimism CFOs are less optimistic about the domestic economy  Compared to last quarter, more South African CFOs (73%) report being less optimistic about the domestic economy this quarter Sentiment towards domestic economy  Similar to last quarter, Nigerian CFOs are less optimistic about the economy  Unlike South Africa and Nigeria, CFOs surveyed in the Rest of Africa are more optimistic about their domestic economies  Overall average suggests CFOs are less optimistic

4 4 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Most African CFOs are optimistic about their own companies, despite being less optimistic about the overall economy. However, there is a reduction in own-firm optimism in Nigeria. Own-company optimism is still high in South Africa  South African CFOs are less optimistic for their own companies compared to last quarter. However, own-company optimism still remains above average. Own Company Sentiment When ranked on a 100 point scale, the Own-Company African Optimism Index (for the economic prospects over the next year of each CFO’s own company) reduced from 69.5 in Q to 67.6 in Q (South Africa: 67.9, Nigeria: 80, ROA: 55) All surveyed CFOs in the rest of Africa have grown less optimistic about their company this quarter compared to last  Specifically, 50% of CFOs in Nigeria are less optimistic about their own companies this quarter

5 African Business Optimism Compared to Rest of World 5 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 African Business Optimism worsens from last quarter. African CFOs are more optimistic about their own firms than they are about the continent overall, slightly above other regions  Own-company optimism recovers somewhat in the US, Europe and Asia.  Latin American CFOs are the least optimistic about their own firms after a significant drop from last quarter Over the past year, African CFOs had low levels of optimistic about their domestic economies, with a deep decrease this quarter  Economic optimism in the USA and Asia are stable and high, while optimism in Africa and Latin America remain low. Europe slightly rebounds. Business Optimism Index (by Continent)Own-Firm Business Optimism Index

6 Top 10 Corporate Concerns for African CFOs 6 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Concerns of African CFOs vary by country. Economic uncertainty is a top concern in South Africa while cost of borrowing is a top concern in Nigeria. South AfricaNigeriaRest of Africa 1) Economic uncertainty 1) Cost of borrowing 1) Currency risk 2) Reliability and cost of Electricity 2) Reliability and cost of Electricity 1) Difficulty attracting/retaining qualified employees 3) Regulatory requirements 2) Regulatory requirements 1) Government policies 4) Currency risk 2) Currency risk 1) Rising wages and salaries 5) Difficulty attracting/retaining qualified employees 2) Volatility of political situation 1) Employee morale 6) Government policies 2) Rising input or commodity costs 1) Corruption and white collar crime 7) Employee productivity 2) Violent crime 1) Corporate tax code [domestic] 8) Access to capital 8) Economic uncertainty 8) Economic uncertainty 8) Rising wages and salaries 8) Difficulty attracting/retaining qualified employees 8) Access to capital 10) Volatility of political situation 10) Government policies 10) Property rights Top 10 Corporate Concerns South African CFOs have identified competition from Chinese and Indian imports as a new concern

7 Top 10 Company Changes (One-year Forecast) 7 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 African CFOs estimate the following changes (in %) will occur in their companies during the next 12 months. Top 10 Company Changes South AfricaNigeriaRest of Africa Dividends (+)Capital spending (+)Earnings (-) Earnings (+)Revenue (+)Healthcare costs (+) Capital spending (+)Prices of company products (+)Wages/Salaries (+) Technology spending (+)Wages/Salaries (+) Research and development spending (+) Revenue (+)Technology spending (+)Capital spending (+) Wages/salaries (+)Marketing/advertising spending (+) Number of domestic fulltime employees (+) Marketing/advertising spending (+)Cash on the balance sheet (+)Revenue (+) Healthcare costs (+)Dividends (no change)Prices of company products (+) Number of domestic full-time employees (+) Earnings (no change)Productivity (+) Research and development spending (+) Healthcare costs (no change) Number of offshore outsourced employees (+)

8 Impending Acquisitions, Divestitures, and Exits 8 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 The acquisition and divestiture strategy of African companies varies by country. Compared to the rest of Africa, South African firms plan to be somewhat active in acquisitions and sales. A portion of these activities is expected to be cross-border transactions. Acquisitions Divestitures and Exits Location of Cross-border Acquisition Targets 10% of CFOs in South Africa indicated that their companies will be sold in More than companies in other parts of Africa, South African companies plan to be somewhat active in the acquisition space, with some acquisitions expected to be conducted outside Africa. 40% of firms with cross-border plans indicated that all their acquisition spending will occur outside the country.

9 Effects of Changes in Interest Rates 9 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 African CFOs indicate that current and expected changes in Interest rates have a direct and significantly negative impact on their business. Effect of Changes in Interest RatesImpact of Changes in Interest Rates on Business African businesses experienced direct impact from changes in exchange rates. The impact of exchange rates has a negative effect on businesses in South Africa and Nigeria, while there is no impact in the rest of Africa.

10 Projections of Changes in Interest Rates (South Africa) 10 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Projected Impact of Changes in Interest Rates on Capital Spending Plans and Hiring Plans (South Africa) Expectations of Changes in Long Term Interest Rates (South Africa) Changes in interest rates has minimal impact on the capital spending and hiring plans of South African businesses. 49% of South African business leaders expect a +50 bps increase in Long Term Interest Rates.

11 Effects of Changes in Oil Prices 11 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 African CFOs indicate that current and expected changes in Oil Prices have a direct and significantly negative impact on their business. Effect of Changes in Oil PricesImpact of Changes in Oil Prices on Business The changes in price of crude oil has affected African businesses directly and indirectly with almost equal measure. The changes in price of Crude Oil has had a positive impact on 62% of South African businesses while it has had negative impact on business in Nigeria.

12 Projections of Changes in Oil Prices (South Africa) 12 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Projected Impact of Changes in Oil Prices on Capital Spending Plans and Hiring Plans (South Africa) Expectations of Changes in Oil Prices (South Africa) The changes in oil prices has not affected the capital spending and hiring plans for most businesses in South Africa. 78% of South African business leaders believe that the price of oil will rise above $60 per barrel from its current price of $50. Specifically, 19% posit that the price will rise as high as $80 per barrel.

13 Effects of Changes in Currency Values 13 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 African CFOs indicate that current and expected changes in Currency Values have a direct and varying impact on their business. Effect of Changes in Currency ValuesImpact of Changes in Currency Values on Business Most African CFOs believe that changes in the value of the US Dollar has had a direct impact on their companies’ business. The impact of changes in the value of the US dollar varies amongst African business. While some report positive impact, a marginally larger group reports negative impact.

14 Projections of Changes in price of USD to Euro (South Africa) 14 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Projected Impact of Changes in $/Euro on Capital Spending Plans and Hiring Plans (South Africa) Expectations of Changes in $/Euro (South Africa) More than 70% of CFOs in South Africa indicate that the changes in the price of the US $ has no impact on their company’s capital spending and hiring plans % of South African CFOs expect that the value of the US Dollar will decline by 10% while 9.30% of CFOs believe that the value of the currency will increase by 5%.

15 Return on Assets and Capacity Utilization 15 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Responding Nigerian CFOs predict the smallest ROA in 2015 while holding capacity utilization relatively constant in the coming year. South African companies expect an increase in ROA and capacity utilization. South AfricaNigeriaRest of AfricaUSEuropeAsiaLatin America Return-on-Assets Approximate ROA in %4.0%10.0%9.2% 9.7%8.4% Expected ROA In %6.5%9.0%11.4% 11.3%10.0% Capacity Utilization % capacity in 2H %76.0%-76.7%85.8%89.7%58.1% % capacity planned for 1H of %77.5%-78.5%85.8%88.5%71.5%


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