Presentation on theme: "African Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, The South African Institute of Chartered Accountants."— Presentation transcript:
African Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, The South African Institute of Chartered Accountants and CFO magazine 1
CFO Global and African Business Outlook – Overview 2 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Dec 2014 Global Business Outlook Duke University has surveyed CFOs around the world every quarter since 1996, most of those years jointly with CFO magazine. The survey takes the pulse of the business community and has a strong record of predicting future economic activity. The results are relied upon by Central Bankers, Analysts, Investors, and are widely reported in the press. SAICA and the African Business Outlook SAICA joined the survey in 2013, helping to found the African Business Outlook. South African results are highlighted in the analysis, as are results from Nigeria and the rest of Africa, enabling SAICA and other survey partners to share key insights about the African economy with members of the Institute and others focusing on Africa. The analysis in this report will assist companies to make important business decisions as they can benchmark themselves against their global peers. The long run goal is to develop a large and steady set of responding African firms. Key Survey Facts Survey Respondents: 54 Of which, 43 from South Africa, 5 from Nigeria, and 6 from other parts of Africa The small number of respondents may skew some results outside of South Africa Sample includes CFOs from both public and private companies representing a broad range of industries Retail/Wholesale, Mining/Construction, Manufacturing, Transportation/Energy, Communications/Media, Technology, and Banking/Finance/Insurance Certain questions are constant each quarter, to capture trends in corporate optimism, expected hiring and capital investment plans, inflation, wages, and many other categories. Other questions change each quarter to examine topical economic issues and newsworthy business or political events that may affect the landscape of corporate finance.
Sentiment Regarding Domestic Economy 3 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Dec 2014 When ranked on a 100 point scale, the African Optimism Index (for the economic prospects of the continent over the next year) increased from 51.7 in Q3 2014 to 53.9 in Q4 (South Africa: 50; ROA: 69). African optimism about the next 12 months remains low Trends in South African Optimism CFOs are less optimistic about the domestic economy Similar to last quarter, 63% of South African CFOs report being less optimistic about the domestic economy this quarter Sentiment towards domestic economy Nigerian CFOs are less optimistic this quarter than last quarter Unlike South Africa and Nigeria, CFOs surveyed in the Rest of Africa are more optimistic about their domestic economies Overall average suggests CFOs are less optimistic
4 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Dec 2014 Most African CFOs are optimistic about their own companies, despite being less optimistic about the overall economy; own-firm optimism is especially high in Nigeria Own-company optimism has increased over the past year in South Africa South African CFOs remain optimistic for their own companies. In fact, optimism increased by 37.5% compared to last quarter Own Company Sentiment When ranked on a 100 point scale, the Own-Company African Optimism Index (for the economic prospects over the next year of each CFO’s own company) increased from 65.5 in Q3 2014 to 69.5 in Q4 (South Africa: 69.7, Nigeria: 73, ROA: 65) All surveyed Nigerian CFOs have grown less optimistic about their company this quarter compared to last On the contrary, 50% of CFOs in the rest of Africa are more optimistic about their own companies this quarter
African Business Optimism Compared to Rest of World 5 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Dec 2014 African Business Optimism slightly recovers from last quarter. African CFOs are more optimistic about their own firms than they are about the continent overall, slightly above other regions Own-company optimism recovers somewhat in Latin America Over the past year, African CFOs have become increasingly less optimistic about their domestic economies, with a slight rebound recently Economic optimism in the USA and Asia are stable and high, while optimism in Africa and Latin America remain low. Business Optimism Index (by Continent)Own-Firm Business Optimism Index
Top 10 Corporate Concerns for African CFOs 6 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Dec 2014 Concerns of African CFOs vary by country. Currency risk is a top concern in Nigeria and also concerning in South Africa. South AfricaNigeriaRest of Africa 1) Government policies 1) Currency risk 1) Regulatory requirement 1) Economic uncertainty 1) Inflation 1) Imbalance between transformation and service delivery imperatives 1) Rising wages and salaries 1) Cost of borrowing 3) Cost of borrowing 4) Currency risk 4) Government policies 3) Weak demand for your products/services 4) Difficulty attracting/retaining qualified employees 4) Rising input or commodity costs 3) Corruption and white collar crime 4) Reliability and cost of electricity 6) Reliability and cost of electricity 6) Government policies 7) Regulatory requirements 6) Violent crime 7) Reliability and cost of electricity 7) Employee morale 8) Economic uncertainty 7) Economic uncertainty 9) Volatility of political situation 9) Volatility of political situation 9) Access to capital 10) Unrest in general population 10) Access to capital 10) Property rights Top 10 Corporate Concerns
Top Qualities Desired in Next Director 7 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Dec 2014 When asked what qualities the BoD desires in the next director, industry experience and creative thinker topped the list. South AfricaNigeriaRest of Africa Experience in our industry Outside-the-box thinker Outside-the-box-thinker Experience in our industry Specific skills (e.g., engineering, accounting) C-level experience as a manager at a top companyPeople skills (e.g., consensus builder) Diversity (gender, race, etc.) Specific skills (e.g., engineering, accounting) People skills (e.g., consensus builder)Experience running a large organizationDiversity (gender, race, etc) Experience running a large organizationPeople skills (e.g., consensus builder) C-level experience as a manager at a top company Specific professional degreeDiversity (gender, race, etc)Experience running a large organization C-level experience as a manager at a top companySpecific professional degree Qualities (as ranked by the various regions)
Diversity on Board of Directors 8 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Dec 2014 Despite having a goal/guideline target of 26% women and minorities in S. Africa, current composition suggests there are not meeting this goal. They cite “too few women with certain experiences/skills” as a main challenge Diversity goals vary across countries 35% of South African CFOs report having specific goals or guidelines and only 16% in other parts of Africa (excluding Nigeria). Responding Nigerian CFOs do not appear to have diversity targets.
Millennials in the Work Place 9 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Dec 2014 What percentage of company employees are “Millennials”? Distribution varies across different countries The top advantages of hiring “Millennials” cited by all are: Technologically savvy Cost savings (in terms of salary) More energetic On the other hand, top challenges are: Less loyal to the company Attitude of entitlement More interested in their own professional development than in the company In an effort to recruit and retain “Millennials,” some companies have added more fringe benefits and implemented new mentoring programs
Return on Assets and Capacity Utilization 10 African Business Outlook Duke University / SAICA / CFO Magazine Dec 2014 Responding Nigerian CFOs predict the smallest ROA in 2014 while holding capacity utilization relatively constant in the coming year. South African companies expect an icrease in ROA and capacity utilization. South AfricaNigeriaRest of AfricaUSEuropeAsiaLatin America Return-on-Assets Approximate ROA in 2013 16.4%4.8%21.4%8.8%9.9%13.4%8.5% Expected ROA In 2014 17.6%2.8%21.6%10.9%9.9%14.4%9.2% Capacity Utilization % capacity in 1H 2014 71.4%55.0%85.0%69.55% 69.08%73.97% 71.95% % capacity planned for remainder of 2014 78.6%53.3%85.0% 71.74% 70.76% 76.69% 73.63%