1. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 1 Complexity Models and Conflict: A Case Study from Kosovo Conference on Conflict and Complexity Glenda H. Eoyang geoyang@hsdinstitute.org Lois Yellowthunder lois@vis.comgeoyang@hsdinstitute.orglois@vis.com

2. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 2 “... the chief characteristic of this emerging world is... the interconnectedness of the destructive forces, the interwoven and increasingly interacting worldwide forces of economic, political and military power: a global culture of violence. This is fuelled at all levels, from individual to nation and perhaps even to international bloc, by the hope for power and profit.” Adam Curle To Tame The Hydra: Undermining the culture of violence

3. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 3 Current intellectual challenges to the field of conflict resolution: 1) the appropriateness of impartial conflict resolution techniques where war is fuelled by ‘greed rather than grievance,’ 2) internal wars representing “…the emergence of new types of social formation adapted for survival on the margins of the global economy…” and 3) western cultural bias built into current models of conflict resolution. Ramsbotham, et al

4. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 4 CDE Model Containers Hold the agents of the system together as system-wide patterns form Differences Distinctions to which specific behavior is attached Transforming exchanges Transaction that transfers resources and amplifies or dampens behaviors Eoyang

5. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 5 Constrained Container Intentional actions Adaptive results ContainerDifferenceExchange Smaller/tighterMore tension More coherence More frequent More controlling Larger/weakerLess tension Less coherence Less frequent Less controlling

6. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 6 Intentional actions Adaptive results DifferenceContainerExchange Greater numberExpandingMore ambiguous Lesser numberContractingLess ambiguous Greater MagnitudeMore tensionLess reliable Lesser MagnitudeMore stabilityMore reliable Constrained Difference

7. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 7 Intentional actions Adaptive results ExchangeDifferenceContainer TighterMore tensionContracting LooserMore diversityExpanding NoneNo limitNo boundary Constrained Exchange

8. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 8 Has Peacebuilding Made a Difference in Kosovo? Collaborative for Development Action (CDA) conducted the study of peacebuilding efforts in Kosovo between 1999 and 2004. Study commissioned in 2006 by CARE International, Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the UK, CARE UK, CARE Austria, and CDA. We focus on one case study, No Violence, No Returns in Gjilan/Gnjilane Municipality. The entire study is available on-line.

9. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 9 Case Themes Community context (Difference) Incidents of violence (Exchange) Demographics of community members (Difference) Connectors (Exchange) Dividers (Exchange) Peacebuilding activities (Exchange)

10. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 10 Issues with Modeling Inductive techniques Nonlinear time series analysis Indicates coherence and dimensionality but not explicitly C, D, E Deductive techniques Agent-based modeling Simple rules based on C, D, E Coupled, nonlinear equations for C, D, E Inductive/deductive techniques Iterative hypothesis development/testing Action research and adaptive decision making

11. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 11 Issues with Modeling Human systems are multi-leveled Many parameters can function as each condition Distinguishing between uncertainties: Randomness N-dimensional, nonlinear, dynamical system Objective, subjective, and normative truths

12. © 2008. HSD Institute. Use with permission. 12 Emerging Questions Are containers, differences, and exchanges the necessary and sufficient conditions for patterns of peace? What innovative options for peace building action are generated in light of the CDE Model? How can stakeholders use CDE to influence their own emergent, complex adaptive patterns? What mode of simulation modeling is most effective to represent the CDE Model? How can a CDE-based simulation model be tested against objective, subjective, and normative data regarding peace and peace building activities?