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Free Powerpoint Templates Page 1 Free Powerpoint Templates The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) S.H.M.

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Presentation on theme: "Free Powerpoint Templates Page 1 Free Powerpoint Templates The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) S.H.M."— Presentation transcript:

1 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 1 Free Powerpoint Templates The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) S.H.M. Fakhruddin Team Leader- Hydrology fakhruddin@rimes.int www.shmfakhruddin.com Ensembles Probabilistic Long Lead Flood Forecasts For Community Level Applications Measuring ‘Real’ Impact Monday 25th June 2012 UK CDS, Wellcome Trust, 215 Euston Road, London NW1 2BE

2 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 2 Discussion Topics  About RIMES & Key Activities  End to End EWS  Case Study on Flood forecasting and Agriculture Risk Management

3 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 3 RIMES Member States

4 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 4 Purpose and objectives Purpose: Provide early warning services for enhanced preparedness, response, and mitigation of natural hazards, according to differing needs and demands of its Member States Objectives:  Facilitate establishment and maintenance of core regional observation and monitoring networks and ensure data availability for early warning  Provide regional tsunami watch within the framework of UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)  Support National Meteorological and Hydrological services for providing localized hydro-meteorological risk information within the framework of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)  Enhance warning response capacities at all levels (national to community) within each national early warning framework

5 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 5 Governance Council  Heads of NMHSs/ national scientific and technical agencies generating multi- hazard early warning information, empowered to make policy decisions, on behalf of governments, concerning regional early warning arrangements for enhanced preparedness for, response to, and mitigation of natural hazards  Chair: Government of India Secretariat  Carries out the decisions and tasks assigned by the Council, and provides support to the Program Unit in managing the regional early warning center  Government of Maldives (Presidential Task Force led by the H.E. Vice President of Maldives) serves as Administrative Secretariat; Government of Mongolia (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) as Program Secretariat Program Unit  Responsible for the day-to-day operation and management of the regional early warning center and the implementation of programs and activities  Co-located with the RIMES regional early warning Center

6 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 6 Organizational Chart Chief Scientist Tsunami Early Warning Warning Coordination Scientist Seismologist Oceanographer Telecommunications Specialist System Analysts (2) Decision-support Tool Development Specialist Seconded Scientists (6) Team Leader Early Warning Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment Expert Team Leader Climate Risk Management Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment Expert Project Teams Climate Impact Assessment Team GIS and Survey Specialist Secretariat Council Director, Program Unit Program Management Tsunami Watch Provision Support to Hydro-Met Services Societal Applications Capacity Building Specialist Chief Program Management Finance Officer Human Resource and Administration Officer ICKM Specialist Climate Forecast Application Team Project Teams Chief Scientist Climate Change Chief Scientist Seasonal Forecasting Chief Scientist Severe Weather Synoptician Hydrologist System Analyst Seconded Scientists (2)

7 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 7 Key services 1)Tsunami Watch Provision to National Tsunami Warning Centers  Seismic and sea level monitoring and data exchange  Provision of earthquake alerts and regional tsunami bulletins  Tsunami hazard and risk assessment tools for local coastal inundation forecasting 2)Support to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services  Customization of climate and weather forecasting models for generation of more reliable, location-specific severe weather and short- and medium-term weather forecasts, and seasonal climate outlook, having longer lead times  Downscaling of global climate models for generating high-resolution climate change information for national and local level planning  Development of decision-support tools  Translation of products of research into operational forecast products and testing these for local level application

8 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 8 Key services continued 3)Capacity Building on End-to-End Early Warning  Early warning system audits  Assistance in establishing and maintaining observation and monitoring stations of regional benefit  Training of scientists (in-country and RIMES secondment program)  Development of decision-support tools  Strengthening national early warning provider and user interface  Application of tailored risk information at different time scales in decision- making  Enhancing community responses to early warning

9 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 9 EW System

10 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 10 EW System Structure Detection Subsystem Management Subsystem Response Subsystem Monitoring, detection, data Assessment, data analysis, prediction Risk Assessment, interpretation, communication Interpretation, confirmation and response

11 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 11 Reasons for Warning Failure ?

12 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 12 Gaps Dissemination to at-risk communities Observation/ monitoring Warning formulation Community response Data analysis Prediction Risk assessment Emergency response plans Public education/ awareness Mitigation programs Potential impact assessment Preparation of response options  Aging and insufficient observation and data communication facilities  Numerical prediction capability  Skilled human resource  Capacity to make use of new generation forecasts  Local level potential impact assessment not done  Language  Localized, relevant  Institutional mechanism, linkages  SOPs  Redundant communication systems  Reach to special groups  Data sharing among agencies  Public awareness  Communication of forecast limitations  Lack of trainers/ facilitators  Resources to respond to warning  Regulatory framework for warning  Stakeholders involvement and roles

13 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 13 A Case Study- Bangladesh

14 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 14 Probabilistic Flood Forecasting and Applications in Agriculture Research Project initiated since 2000 and completed in 2007 GoB requested RIMES to continue to support RIMES provides 10 days lead time flood forecast to GoB and build capacity

15 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 15 Institutional Collaboration For Sustainable End-to-end Flood Forecasts System BMD Climate (rainfall and discharge) forecasting technology RIMES- CFAN Agro met translation FFWC Discharge translation RIMES DMB, DAE Interpretation Communication End users RIMES, Local Partners Flood forecast RIMES

16 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 16 Target groupsDecisionsForecast lead time requirement FarmersEarly harvesting of B.Aman, delayed planting of T.Aman10 days Crop systems selection, area of T. Aman and subsequent cropsSeasonal Selling cattle, goats and poultry (extreme)Seasonal HouseholdStorage of dry food, safe drinking water, food grains, fire wood10 days Collecting vegetables, banana1 week With draw money from micro-financing institutions1 week FishermanProtecting fishing nets1 week Harvesting fresh water fish from small ponds10 days DMCsPlanning evacuation routs and boats20 – 25 days Arrangements for women and children20 – 25 days Distribution of water purification tablets1 week Char householdsStorage of dry food, drinking water, deciding on temporary accommodation 1 week Flood risk management at community level decisions and forecast lead time requirement

17 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 17 Discharge Forecast Schemes ECMWF Operational ensemble forecast NOAA and NASA (i.e.CMORPH and GPCP) satellite precipitation & GTS rain gauge data Hydrologic model parameters Discharge data Downscaling of forecasts Statistical correction Hydrological Model Lumped Distributed Multi-Model Discharge Forecasting Accounting for uncertainties Final error correction Generation of discharge forecast PDF Critical level probability forecast (I). Initial Data Input (II). Statistical Rendering (III). Hydrological Modeling (IV). Generation of Probabilistic Q (V). Forecast Product

18 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 18 2007 Flood- Brahmaputra Ensemble Forecasts and Danger Level Probabilities 7-10 day Ensemble Forecasts7-10 day Danger Levels 7 day 8 day 9 day10 day 7 day8 day 9 day10 day

19 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 19 2012- Brahmaputra Ensemble Forecasts

20 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 20 Plumes and probability pies for the first Brahmaputra flood July 28-August 6, 2007 Model able to meet three fundamental information needs of communities at risk

21 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 21 Distribution of H combined with DEM --> probabilities of flood classes DEMDistribution of H values

22 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 22 Vulnerability & Flood Risk Assessment Development of flood risk map which will include: –low probability –medium probability –high probability

23 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 23 Flood Risk Map

24 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 24 Decision Support System Community Outcomes 1.Delayed seedling raising, gapfilling, skipping early fertilizer application 2.Advance harvest of paddy ( 70-80 % mature) 3.Early harvest of jute for rotten in water 4.Pot culture (homestead), Use resistant variety 5.Food storage, flood shelter, vaccination de-warming High floodJFMAMJJASOND T.Aman113 T.Aus2223 Jute3 S.Vegetables444 Cattle555555555555 …

25 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 25 High floodJFMAMJJASOND T.Aman113 T.Aus2223 Jute3 S.Vegetables444 Cattle555555555555 … Decision Support System (DSS) Recommendations 1.Delayed seedling raising, gapfilling, skipping early fertilizer application 2.Advance harvest 3.Early harvest 4.Pot culture (homestead), Use resistant variety 5.Food storage, flood shelter, vaccination de-warming

26 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 26 USER MATRIX on Disasters, Impacts and Management Plan for Crop, Livestock and Fisheries

27 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 27 Decision Tree

28 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 28 Risk Communication of flood forecasts

29 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 29 29 Sending SMS to Mobile Risk Communication for Flood Forecasts Mobile phone Flag hoisting

30 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 30 Community responses to flood forecasts

31 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 31 Economic- Benefits In 2008 Flood, Economic Benefits on average per household at pilot areas –Livestock's = TK. 33,000 ($485) per household –HH assets = TK. 18,500 ( $270) per household –Agriculture = TK 12,500 ($180) per household –Fisheries = TK. 8,800 ( $120) per households Experiment showed that every USD 1 invested, a return of USD 40.85 in benefits over a ten-year period may be realized (WB).

32 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 32 Expansion of Areas

33 Free Powerpoint Templates Page 33 Thank you S.H.M. Fakhruddin Team Leader- Hydrology fakhruddin@rimes.int www.shmfakhruddin.com


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