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Where goes New Hampshire? NH Government Finance Officers May 2, 2008 Dennis Delay Deputy Director, NHCPPS “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates.

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Presentation on theme: "Where goes New Hampshire? NH Government Finance Officers May 2, 2008 Dennis Delay Deputy Director, NHCPPS “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates."— Presentation transcript:

1 Where goes New Hampshire? NH Government Finance Officers May 2, 2008 Dennis Delay Deputy Director, NHCPPS “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

2 Anecdotal evidence from the Fed Bank of Boston, April 16, 2008  First District reports continue to be mixed, with most expressing concern about the near-term outlook.  Retail seeing activity slow, although some remain ahead of year-earlier sales levels;  Tourism is fairly robust in the region.  Manufacturers mostly report revenue growth and say they are uneasy with high costs and a slowing U.S. economy.  Real estate markets remain soft.

3 Help wanted advertising online has leveled off.

4 Layoffs have moderated, compared to the beginning of the decade, but recent report is unsettling. Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

5 The pool of unemployed is still uncomfortably large. Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

6 Manufacturing suffered the worst job losses Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

7 Construction jobs soften with real estate woes Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

8 Consumers are still spending money at retail stores Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

9 … but tourism has stalled. Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

10 Insurance, investment, banks, wither after significant growth Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

11 Business demand for technical services and employment agencies expands anew. Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

12 Demand for education and healthcare is relentless Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

13 …and citizens turn to the Government for help. Source: NH Dept of Employment Security

14 NH Real Estate Shifted Quickly Chart shows NH Residential Sales and Prices, Percent Change vs. the previous year. Sales declined by one third from 2004 to Sales declined another 27% so far in 2008, and prices are down 8%. Source: NH Assoc. of REALTORS

15 Home Prices Had Increased Faster than Income

16 New Hampshire affordability better than the 1980’s. Sources: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

17 Correcting the home price to rent ratio.

18 General Fund and Property Tax

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20 34 State is constantly ‘tinkering’ with revenue system.

21 More Reliant on Property Taxes Source: The Tax Foundation:

22 More Reliant on Corporate Taxes also … Source: The Tax Foundation:

23 Our tax burden remains lower …. Source: The Tax Foundation:

24 Work Focused on Local Government  Financing Local Government (Data Book)  Elderly Property Tax Exemptions Update  Aging and Government Services Implications of aging on human service expenditures (and county LTC system)  The Shifting Burden of Government Services? Education Long Term Care System Retirement System Juvenile Services  Services by Type of Service

25 What We Did  Surveyed available data on towns  Collected the only consistent source of information on taxation, appropriation, revenues and expenditures by major type of service (municipal, county, school) funded by cities and towns.  Provide analysis of general trends in local government for the state.  Provide each town with 5 years of data, available on the web.

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27 The highest municipal valuations are in the Merrimack Valley, Seacoast and the Lakes Region (metro centers and tourism related)

28 Municipal valuations per person have grown the fastest in areas around the Lakes (second home and tourism related?)

29 Rising property values had let towns reduce tax rates.

30 Falling home prices will mean falling property values.

31 Doing this work helped the Center refocus the mission.  Local Government – Enhancing the understanding of where the burden of government services is born and how it is changing is important. In addition, it is important that the Center continue to expand the information on city and town functions that is available.

32 Northern New England Scores Well

33 A full proof economic indicator!

34 All of our reports are available on the web: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Board of Directors Donna Sytek, Chair John B. Andrews John D. Crosier Shelia T. Francoeur Chuck Morse Todd Selig Stuart Smith James Tibbetts Brian Walsh Kimon S. Zachos Martin Gross Staff Steve Norton Dennis Delay Ryan Tappin “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”


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