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“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” The Changing Demographics.

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Presentation on theme: "“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” The Changing Demographics."— Presentation transcript:

1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” The Changing Demographics of Freedom and Carroll County Freedom Planning Board Public Meeting Sunday, July 13, 2014 Board of Directors William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos

2 Freedom is one of the “older” towns in New Hampshire Freedom’s median age is 53.1 years Of the 244 towns and cities in NH, Freedom is one of 26 with a median age of greater than 50 years. Median age state wide is 37.2 years Source: 2010 census

3 Carroll County Population over 65 years old is forecast to increase from 25% to 35% by 2025 Source: Census and NH OEP forecast

4 Freedom’s population skews much older than the US and NH Source: US Census Bureau

5 Outmigration has contributed to these age group patterns Source: US Census Bureau

6 Future NH Population growth anticipated to be slower Source: Census and NH OEP forecast

7 Economics

8 NH Grew Slower than US in last decade Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University

9 Carroll County 40 year share of state economic growth is steady at 3% Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University

10 The outlook is generally improving, but problems remain Business activity: year-over-year increases in New England, but performance varies across sectors. –Manufacturers and tourism: contacts note strong results –Software and IT services firms cite strengthening sales –staffing services respondents indicate activity has picked up recently, while retail reports are somewhat mixed. Hiring: –Some firms note that jobs in selected occupations remain difficult to fill. –Outlooks remain quite positive, but not sufficiently positive to result in plans for increased hiring. Single-family home sales and prices: declined year-over-year in March in four of the six New England states. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, June 4, 2014

11 Manufacturing, construction and financial activities have not recovered, government shrinks Source: NH Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau

12 job growth is dominated by below average wage jobs Source: NH Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau

13 13 Working Age Population Will Decline significantly in Carroll County Source: NH OEP forecast

14 14 Income per Household in Freedom declining Source: IRS statistics by zip code

15 15 Increase in Freedom EITC filings Source: IRS statistics by zip code

16 16 Freedom property tax base is shrinking Source: NH Dept of Revenue Administration

17 17 Freedom property tax base recovery lagging NH average Source: NH Dept of Revenue Administration

18 Housing

19 19 NH Real Estate Has Finally Hit Bottom

20 Recovery in Carroll County mirrors state real estate recovery Source: NH Housing Finance analysis

21 21 Freedom’s portion of “second homes” has been shrinking, but still higher than NH/county. Source: New Hampshire Census reports

22 Carroll County Rents Rise and Vacancies Fall Rents have risen to $1,000 and vacancy has dropped to 5% Source: NH Housing Finance Residential Surveys

23 23 Mismatch With the Inventory—Small Households, Large Units—Downsizing to What? Average Bedrooms = 2.64 Average HH size = 2.46 Source: Big Homes, Small Households, NH Center on Policy studies

24 Supply of Housing Stock doesn’t fit Demand Baby Boomers want to downsize and live on a single floor to “age in place.” –They need to sell their larger homes to do so. Younger households, burdened with student loans and with lower wage jobs, are less able to qualify under tighter bank standards to buy. –They are looking for non-conventional alternatives, like co-ownership and “doubling up.” Younger households are not providing the liquidity for older seller to “move up” or “down size.” Source: Big Houses, Small Households: Perceptions, Preferences and Assessment, NH Center for Policy Studies 24

25 The Holy Grail: A Small Home Both Baby Boomers and young households are looking for a small ranch or cape style house on one level: –But the Baby Boomers may not be able to sell their larger home to have the cash to buy –Young households may not be able to afford the purchase price. In many towns, housing stock of larger homes and zoning regulations make the cost of housing too high for young people. 25

26 26 Most Seniors Do Age In Place Source: Current Population Survey Mobility Estimates

27 27 What seniors need to age in place does not match supply Need to Age in Place: Low maintenance, smaller, efficient units First floor bedroom and bath No stairs into unit Wider entry and bathroom doors Adapted bathrooms and kitchens Higher electrical outlets Levers, not knobs Access to public transportation Supply Available:

28 28 Too few potential in home care workers available to support aging in place Source: Census and NH OEP forecast

29 29 NH’s Changing Environment Has Consequences New Hampshire’s population growth is slowing down Job quality is poor Elders will be increasingly larger share of owners and renters Young home buyers are challenged Recent trend away from ownership and towards rental Different problems in different regions General public, town officials and business are not aware of issues affecting NH’s housing Fewer new households, and fewer families Overpayment problems for low income renters Elder overpayment, and Elders not aware of options available Future home owners not aware of ownership pitfalls and advantages Multi-family production shortages Geographic diversity more important than urban core. Town officials not comfortable changing existing regulations. Environment Consequences Source: Big Homes, Small Households, NH Center on Policy studies

30 New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Want to learn more? Online: nhpolicy.org Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy Our blog: policyblognh.org (603) “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos

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