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1 New Hampshire Coalition on Aging Annual Meeting October 28, 2009 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis.

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Presentation on theme: "1 New Hampshire Coalition on Aging Annual Meeting October 28, 2009 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 New Hampshire Coalition on Aging Annual Meeting October 28, 2009 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors Donna Sytek, Chair John B. Andrews John D. Crosier, Sr. William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Chuck Morse Todd I. Selig Stuart V. Smith, Jr. James E. Tibbetts Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Staff Steve Norton, Executive Director Ryan Tappin Cathy Arredondo Watching the World Change

2 2 Takeaways Challenge Myths Each Community Needs to Watch and Understand The Power of Demographics Planning for Workforce Issues Realities require different approaches

3 3 Myth? We are a state of natives who have been living here for 100s of years.

4 4 Myth? Are We Old? Median Age Oldest? Maine = 42 Youngest? Utah = 29 Average of US = 37 New Hampshire = 40 NH Rank = 42 Percent Over 65 Oldest? Florida = 17% Youngest? Alaska = 7% Average of US = 13% New Hampshire = 13% NH Rank = American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates 2008 Census Population Estimates

5 5 Why Challenge These Myths?

6 6 Pay Attention to Demographics and Decisions Made Which Impact Migration

7 7 One Implication? Voting Patterns Change 1984

8 8 1992

9 9 2004

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12 12 What does the Future Look Like? We Don’t Really Know Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

13 13 Aging Will Happen

14 14 Are We Aging In Place? Source: Ken Johnson, “The Changing Faces of New Hampshire”

15 15 Disability has declined …

16 16

17 17 What Happens to Demand if Population over 65 Doubles?

18 18 Aging Schools Housing Health Care What Will the Boomers Do? Balance of Government And Private Economic Development Quality Of Life Transportation Rails I93 Zoning And Livable Communities Migration Uncertainty: It’s A System, Not Static

19 19 Major Policy Levers Which May Affect Issue of Aging and Migration Transportation Housing Prices ‘Retaining Youth’ Initiatives (55 Initiative, the Arts) Information Highway Conservation, Quality of Life, Water and Sewer Business Development State and Community Investment Taking Advantage of Regional Opportunities

20 20 Workforce: A Caregiver Crunch by 2030 (if not before!) How are we going to take care of the elderly? In Coos county, there is almost 1 resident over 85 for every 5 women age By 2030, projections suggest there will be 1 resident over 85 for every 2 women age We will not have enough caretakers if population grows as predicted.

21 21 New Expectations World War II cohort (born from 1928 to 1945)World War II –Key characteristics: conformity, conservatism, traditional family valuesconservatism Baby Boomer cohort #1 (born from 1946 to 1954)Baby Boomer –Key characteristics: experimental, individualism, free spirited, social cause oriented Generation Jones or Boomer cohort #2 (born from 1955 to 1964) –Key characteristics: less optimistic, pragmatic, general cynicism Generation X cohort (born from 1965 to 1980)Generation X –Key characteristics: quest for emotional security, independent, informality, entrepreneurial Millennial Generation cohort also called Generation Y (born from 1981 to 2001)Millennial Generation –Key characteristics: quest for physical security and safety, heightened fears, acceptance of change, technically savvy, environmental issues Source: William Strauss and Neal Turning “Fourth Turning”

22 22 New Partnerships? Employers ….

23 23 Future Funding Gap (State and Local)

24 24 What is NH? The Tech Corridor? The Lakes Region The North Country The Seacoast The Capital Region The Monadnock Region Mt Washington Valley

25 25 The Future is Uncertain but Opportunities Exist Speed of Change Watch the Demographics –Recession changing migration patterns Recession changes income –Aging will occur. –Yes, we are aging, but when do real problems emerge? Do the right models of care exist for a new generation? –Transportation (where are people living?) –Other services (meals on wheels, congregate meals, adult home and adult day care?) Changing disability and demand for services offer new opportunities and partnerships –Mental Health/Health Care Needs? –Employers and care giving (we have childcare ….) ? Budget Realities require different approaches


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