Presentation on theme: "Ch. 9: The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments."— Presentation transcript:
1Ch. 9: The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments. Exchange ratesDefinitionDeterminantsShort runLong runPurchasing power parityInterest rate parityBalance of payments accountsCauses of an international deficitAlternative exchange rate policies and their long-run effects
2Currencies and Exchange Rates U.S. Citizens sell dollars in the foreign exchange market in order to purchase foreign currency topurchase importspurchase foreign assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.)this is the supply of $Foreign citizens buy dollars in the foreign exchange market with foreign currency in order topurchase U.S. exportspurchase U.S. assets.this is the demand for $
3Currencies and Exchange Rates Foreign Exchange RatesThe price at which one currency exchanges for another.Currency depreciationA fall in the value of one currency in terms of another currencyMakes imports more expensiveMakes exports more affordableCurrency appreciationA rise in value of one currency in terms of another currency.Opposite effect of depreciation on imports/exports.
5The trade-weighted index is the average exchange rate of the U. S The trade-weighted index is the average exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, with individual currencies weighted by their importance in U.S. international trade. (Higher value implies stronger $)
6The Foreign Exchange Market The Demand for One Currency Is the Supply of Another CurrencyForeign citizens demanding U.S. dollars supply their own country’s money.Factors that influence the demand for U.S. dollars also influence the supply of foreign currencies.Factors that influence the demand for another country’s currency also influence the supply of U.S. dollars.
7The Law of Demand for Foreign Exchange The demand for dollars is a derived demand.People buy U.S. dollars so that they can buy U.S.-produced goods and services or U.S. assets.ceteris paribus, the higher the exchange rate, the smaller is the quantity of U.S. dollars demanded in the foreign exchange market.
8The Law of Demand for Foreign Exchange Ceteris paribus, as the P of $ drops, quantity of $ demanded risesExports effectAs P of $ dropsforeign citizens wish to purchase more U.S. exportsquantity of $ demanded rises.Expected profit effectAs P of $ drops,the larger the expected profit from buying U.S. assetsquantity of $ demanded rises
10Supply of $ in the Foreign Exchange Market The quantity of $ supplied in the foreign exchange market is the amount that traders plan to sell during a given time period at a given exchange rate.
11The Law of Supply of Foreign Exchange Ceteris paribus, as P of $ rises, the greater is the quantity of $ supplied in the foreign exchange market.Imports effectAs P of $ rises, U.S. citizens increase imports and sell more $ to purchase more imports.Expected profit effectAs P of $ rises, U.S. citizens see greater potential for profits in foreign assets and sell more $ to purchase more foreign assets.
13The Foreign Exchange Market Market EquilibriumIf $ is “too strong”, surplus of $If $ is “too weak”, shortage of $
14Exchange Rate Fluctuations Changes in exchange rate cause movement along the demand curve, NOT a change in demand.Changes in Demand for $ caused by:World demand for U.S. exportsU.S. interest rate relative to the foreign interest rateExpected profits on U.S. assets relative to profits on foreign assetsThe expected future exchange rate
15Exchange Rate Fluctuations Changes in the exchange rate cause a movement along the supply curve, NOT a change in supplyChanges in the supply of dollar are caused by:U.S. demand for importsU.S. interest rates relative to the foreign interest rateExpected profits on U.S. assets relative to profits on foreign assetsThe expected future exchange rate
16Exchange Rate Fluctuations Exchange Rate ExpectationsThe exchange rate changes when it is expected to change.But expectations about the exchange rate are driven by deeper forces. Two such forces areInterest rate parityPurchasing power parity
17Interest Rate ParityExpected $ return on investment in foreign currency =interest rate on foreign currency +expected change in value of foreign currencyInterest rate parity exists when interest rates are such that expected returns on currencies are equal across countries.Market forces achieve interest rate parity very quickly.Example:U.S. interest rate=5%; German interest rate=8%What’s required for interest rate parity?
18Interest Rate ParityExample: U.S. pays 5% interest; Japan pays 4% interest; Value of $ expected to appreciate by 3% over next year.Where will U.S. citizens buy bonds?Japanese buy bonds?Effect on interest rates in U.S. and Japan
19Purchasing Power Parity Exists when the exchange rate is such that a currency has the same “purchasing power” in all countries.If PPP did not exist, one could take advantage of “arbitrage” opportunities:buy item at low price and sell at high pricedrives up price in low price country and drives down price in high price country.
20Purchasing Power Parity Suppose $1 = 2 francs, price of gold=$500 in U.S. and 800 francs in France. What’s the arbitrage opportunity? What will happen to price of gold in U.S. France What will happen to price of $?
21Purchasing Power Parity In the long run, because of PPP: Exchange rate between foreign currency and dollar = price in foreign country / price in U.S. % ch in price of $ (exchange rate)= % ch in foreign price - % ch in U.S. prices
22Financing International Trade Balance of Payments AccountsRecord a country’s international trading, borrowing, and lending.Transactions leading to an inflow of currency into the U.S. create a + (credit) in a balance of payments accountTransactions leading to an outflow of currency from the U.S. create a – (debit) in a balance of payments account.
23Financing International Trade Three balance of payments accountsCurrent account= NX + Net interest income + Net transfersCapital account=Foreign invest. in the U.S. - U.S. invest. abroad.Official settlements accountrecords the change in U.S. official reserves.U.S. official reserves are the government’s holdings of foreign currencyIf U.S. official reserves increase, the official settlements account is negative.The sum of the three account balances is zero.
25Financing International Trade Borrowers and LendersA net borrower has a current account deficitA net lender has a current account surplusThe U.S. is currently a net borrower but during the 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. was a net lender.
26Financing International Trade Debtors and CreditorsA debtor nationcountry that owes more than other countries owe to it.A creditor nationa country that owes less than other coutnries owe to it.Since 1986, the United States has been a debtor nation.Borrower/lender status based upon one yearDebtor/creditor status based upon entire history of borrowing/lending.
27Financing International Trade Is being a net borrower “bad”?Borrowing does not reduce long term economic growth provided the borrowed funds are used to finance capital accumulation that increases income.can reduce economic growth if the borrowed funds are used to finance consumption.difficult to determine whether U.S. is borrowing for consumption or capital accumulation.Low savings rates in U.S. may be a concern.
28Financing International Trade Determinants of U.S. Borrowing/lending from rest of worldC+S+T=C+I+G+NXNX=(S-I) + (T-G)(S-I) = private sector balance(T-G) = public sector balanceif balance>0, surplusif balance<0, deficitCeteris paribus, U.S. borrowing from rest of world rises as public or private sector balance decreases
29Financing International Trade For the United States in 2010,Net exports were -$536 billion.Government sector balance was -$1,295 billionPrivate sector balance was $759 billion
30Financing International Trade The Three Sector BalancesThe private sector balance and the government sector balance tend to move in opposite directions.Net exports is the sum of the private sector and government sector balances.
31Exchange Rate Policy Three possible exchange rate policies are Flexible exchange rateFixed exchange rateCrawling pegFlexible Exchange RateA flexible exchange rate policy is one that permits the exchange rate to be determined by demand and supply with no direct intervention in the foreign exchange market by the central bank.
32Exchange Rate PolicyFixed Exchange Rate pegs the exchange rate at a value decided by the government or central bank and that blocks the unregulated forces of demand and supply by direct intervention in the foreign exchange market. A fixed exchange rate requires active intervention in the foreign exchange market.
33Exchange Rate PolicySuppose that the target is 100 yen per U.S. dollar.If demand increases, the central bank sells U.S. dollars to increase supply.Effect of “undervalued dollar” and subsequent intervention on 1. U.S. money supply? 2. U.S. Inflation?
34Exchange Rate PolicyIf demand decreases, the central bank buys U.S. dollars (with foreign reserves) to decrease supply.Effect of “over-valued” dollar and subsequent intervention on:U.S. money supply and reserves of foreign currencyU.S. inflation
35Exchange Rate Policy Crawling Peg selects a target path for the exchange rate with intervention in the foreign exchange market to achieve that path.China is a country that operates a crawling peg.Crawling peg works like a fixed exchange rate except that the target value changes.Avoids wild swings in the exchange rate
37Exchange Rate PolicyPeople’s Bank of China in the Foreign exchange Market China’s official foreign currency reserves are piling up. China will buy $ to drive up price of $; sell $ to drive down price of $.
38Exchange Rate PolicyThe People’s bank buys U.S. dollars to maintain the target exchange rate. China’s official foreign reserves increase. Based on diagram, is $ over- or under-valued relative to Chinese Yuan?