Presentation on theme: "Ch. 18: International Finance –Financing international trade –Balance of payments accounts –International borrowing and lending –Explanations for U.S."— Presentation transcript:
Ch. 18: International Finance –Financing international trade –Balance of payments accounts –International borrowing and lending –Explanations for U.S. change from lender to borrower. –Exchange rate determination. – Interest rate differentials
Financing International Trade Balance of Payments Accounts –Records international trading, borrowing and lending. –Three accounts: Current account Capital account Official settlements account + in balance of payments = inflows of currency - In balance of payments = outflows of currency
Financing International Trade Current account: net exports + net investment income + net transfers Capital account (financial account): Foreign investment in U.S. - U.S. investment in foreign co.’s Official settlements: – net change in U.S. official holdings of foreign currency Current + Capital + official settlements = 0 (approx.)
Financing International Trade –The balance of payments (as a % of GDP) over the period 1983 to 2003.
Borrowers and Lenders, Debtors and Creditors A country that is borrowing more from the rest of the world than it is lending to it – is a net borrower. – has a current account deficit and a capital account surplus (assume official settlements acc=0) A country that is lending more to the rest of the world than it is borrowing from it –is a net lender. – has a current account surplus, and capital account deficit (assume official settlements=0) The U.S. is currently a net borrower (but as late as the 1970s it was a net lender.)
Borrowers and Lenders, Debtors and Creditors Debtor nation –during its entire history has borrowed more from the rest of the world than it has lent to it. Creditor nation –invested more in the rest of the world than other countries have invested in it over its entire history Difference between borrower/lender nation & creditor/ debtor –difference between stocks and flows of financial capital.
–Being a net borrower is not a problem provided the borrowed funds are used to finance capital accumulation that increases income. –Being a net borrower is a problem if the borrowed funds are used to finance consumption. Borrowers and Lenders, Debtors and Creditors
Current Account Balance NX + Net int. income + Net transfers NX is largest item in current account. The other two items are much smaller and don’t fluctuate much. NX = (T – G) + (S – I ) (T-G): govt surplus/deficit. (S-I): private sector saving (surplus/deficit).
Financing International Trade Net exports for the U.S. for 2003 –$506 billion = +$42 b (priv sector surplus) b (govt sector deficit)
Borrowers and Lenders, Debtors and Creditors S-I has moved in the opposite direction of (T-G) No strong relationship between NX and the other two balances individually.
Borrowers and Lenders, Debtors and Creditors Is U.S. Borrowing for Consumption or Investment? –U.S. borrowing from abroad finances investment. –It is much less than private investment and almost equal to government investment in public infrastructure capital.
The Exchange Rate Foreign exchange market –currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of another. Foreign exchange rate The price at which one currency exchanges for another Currency depreciation/appreciation – fall/rise in the value of the currency in terms of another currency.
The Exchange Rate More recent currency trends at
The Exchange Rate
Demand for $ in the Foreign Exchange Market –Quantity of dollars that traders plan to buy in the foreign exchange market during a given period: – Depends on The exchange rate Interest rates in the U.S. and other countries Expected future exchange rate
The Exchange Rate Law of Demand for Foreign Exchange –The demand for dollars is a derived demand. –People in foreign countries buy $ so that they can buy U.S.-made goods and services or U.S. assets. –As the exchange rate rises (f.c. per $), U.S. exports become more expensive for foreigners and the quantity of $ demanded falls.
The Exchange Rate
Changes in the Demand for Dollars –Interest rates in the U.S. and in other countries –Changes in the expected future exchange rate – U.S. prices relative to foreign prices –Changes in expected relative profitability of investments in U.S. –Changes in income in foreign countries
The Exchange Rate Supply in the Foreign Exchange Market –Ceteris paribus, the higher the exchange rate (f.c. per $), the greater is the quantity of dollars supplied in the foreign exchange market. –As f.c. per $ increases, imports from foreign countries become cheaper to U.S., and U.S. wants to sell more $ to purchase imports.
The Exchange Rate Changes in the Supply of Dollars –Shift in the supply curve. –Interest rates in the U.S. and in other countries –Changes in the expected future exchange rate –U.S. prices relative to foreign prices –Changes in expected relative profitability of investments in U.S.
The Exchange Rate Changes in the Exchange Rate –Changes in demand and supply in the foreign exchange market change the exchange rate (just like they change the price in any market). – interest rates. – inflation rates – investment opportunities – expected future exchange rates
Movements in exchange rates Increase in U.S. interest rates relative to rest of world. Increase in expected investment returns relative to rest of world. Increase in U.S. inflation relative to rest of world. Expected increase in value of $ in future.
Other Exchange Rate Considerations. –Purchasing power parity: A currency should buy the same amount of goods and services in every country. If PPP does not hold, there may be an opportunity for profit-making through arbitrage. Example –Gold costs $300 per ounce in U.S.; 200 Euros in Europe. PPP exchange rate should be $300=200 Euros (i.e..67 Euros per dollar). –If exchange rate is 1 Euro per dollar, »how can profits be made? »how will this affect exchange rate?
The Exchange Rate If PPP holds, – e = P in f.c./ P in $ % ch in e = inflation in f.c. – inflation in U.S.
The Exchange Rate Interest rate parity –The return on a currency is the interest rate on that currency plus the expected rate of appreciation over a given period. –When the returns on two currencies are equal, interest rate parity prevails. –Market forces achieve interest rate parity very quickly.
The Exchange Rate Return in $ = return in f.c. - % change in P of $ –If a German bond pays 10% over next year and value of $ increases 10%, what’s return in $? –If a German bond pays 10% over next year and value of $ decreases 10%, what’s return in $? Interest differentials across countries reflect expected movements in exchange rates. If German bonds pay 10% and U.S. bonds pay 4%, what is –expected movement in exchange rate? –Expected difference in inflation rate?
The Exchange Rate The Fed in the Foreign Exchange Market –Through its influence on the interest rate, the Fed can influence the exchange rate. –The Fed can also intervene directly By buying $ in foreign exch. market (selling f.c.) –Fed can increase demand for $ –Strengthen $ –Incur net loss of official reserves. By selling $ in foreign exch. Market (buying f.c.) –Fed can increase supply of $ –Weaken $ –Incur net gain of official reserves.