1. Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases
Defending Mumbai
Sarah Miller Beebe

2. The Case for Cases Introduces key concepts and lexicon.
Bridges theory and practice.
Models question-driven analysis.
Engages analyst in active learning.
Drives home the principles of critical thinking.
Reinforces effective collaborative processes.
Provides a practical and repeatable analytic framework.
Cases, simply put, are an extraordinarily effective teaching method that are used in many disciplines. When we say cases, we don’t just mean stories that analysts can discuss. We mean robust, real-life case studies that are written in a compelling manner…

3. Elements of Success Clear questions. Compelling narrative.
Well-crafted exercises.
Explicit analytic value-added.
Thorough instructor materials that add context and impact for students.
Conclusions
Recommended Readings
Key Takeaways
Notional Solutions
Illustrative of specific types of analytic problems.
Provide a sound and repeatable analytic framework.

4. Defending Mumbai: A Case In Action
Challenge: to identify and transform a generalized vulnerability or threat into actionable intelligence analysis and collection requirements.
The United States quietly told the Indian government that intelligence collected in Pakistan warned of an oncoming attack against hotels and business centers in Mumbai.

5. The Case Opens
The analysts put themselves in the shoes of Indian analysts to dissect the the threat.
The key resource is the case narrative:
Paints picture of Mumbai.
Describes the threat.
Relates a history of terrorists attacks in Mumbai and more broadly in India.
Educates about Indian analytic roles and responsibilities.
Explicates the analytic challenge.

6. Analytic Framework “Straight Line” Unimaginative Often Incorrect
History of Attacks
Terrorist Groups
Think Divergently
Think Diagnostically
Range of Outcomes
Diagnostic signposts
“Actionable”
Structured Brainstorming
Red Hat Analysis
Quadrant Crunching
Indicators
Indicator Validator

7. The Task: Implement an Analytic Framework
Anticipate how the terrorists might launch the attack.
Recognize the signs that specific scenarios are unfolding.
Tailor a set of collection requirements.
Generate actionable intelligence analysis for the field.
Structured Brainstorming
Red Hat Analysis
Quadrant Crunching
Indicators & Indicator Validator
Analytic Value Added

8. Structured Brainstorming
Task: Identify all the various modes of transport the terrorists might use to enter Mumbai.
Value Added: The two-staged options and outliers that spark new avenues of inquiry.

9. Red Hat Analysis
Task: prioritize the list of various modes of transport the terrorists might use to enter Mumbai.
Minimize chances of detection in planning, while in transit, and during the attack.
Means to transport the terrorists’ weapons and ammunition.
Maintain control over the timing and logistics of the operation.
Opt for simplest methods to minimize potential miscalculations.
Maximize the chances of escape when the operation concludes.
Minimize the need to depend on good weather.

10. Quadrant Crunching Task: Determine the ways terrorists
might launch an attack on Mumbai.
Value Added: helps the analyst identify and challenge key assumptions and create an array of credible, alternative scenarios that help inform law enforcement.

11. Indicators & Indictors Validator
Task: Create separate sets of indicators for the most attention-deserving scenarios and determine which indicators are most diagnostic.
Observable
Collectible
Reliable
Valid
Stable
Unique

12. Key Takeaways
Structured Brainstorming prompts creative thinking to ensure that all possible options have been considered.
Quadrant Crunching generates a robust set of alternatives because it forces the analyst to consider the problem through various prisms.
Analysts should focus their energies on developing truly diagnostic indicators that can focus the attention of investigators on what really matters, especially when time is of the essence.

13. Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques In Action
Book of Twelve Cases; Twenty online and
over 36 analytic exercises.
Sarah Miller Beebe & Randolph H. Pherson
Forthcoming in October 2011 from CQ Press
Book & Digital formats
Publish on Demand.
Instructor Materials
Lesson Plans.
Assessment Rubrics.
Notional Solutions.

14. Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases
Defending Mumbai
Sarah Miller Beebe