Presentation on theme: "Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases"— Presentation transcript:
1Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases Defending MumbaiSarah Miller Beebe
2The Case for Cases Introduces key concepts and lexicon. Bridges theory and practice.Models question-driven analysis.Engages analyst in active learning.Drives home the principles of critical thinking.Reinforces effective collaborative processes.Provides a practical and repeatable analytic framework.Cases, simply put, are an extraordinarily effective teaching method that are used in many disciplines. When we say cases, we don’t just mean stories that analysts can discuss. We mean robust, real-life case studies that are written in a compelling manner…
3Elements of Success Clear questions. Compelling narrative. Well-crafted exercises.Explicit analytic value-added.Thorough instructor materials that add context and impact for students.ConclusionsRecommended ReadingsKey TakeawaysNotional SolutionsIllustrative of specific types of analytic problems.Provide a sound and repeatable analytic framework.
4Defending Mumbai: A Case In Action Challenge: to identify and transform a generalized vulnerability or threat into actionable intelligence analysis and collection requirements.The United States quietly told the Indian government that intelligence collected in Pakistan warned of an oncoming attack against hotels and business centers in Mumbai.
5The Case OpensThe analysts put themselves in the shoes of Indian analysts to dissect the the threat.The key resource is the case narrative:Paints picture of Mumbai.Describes the threat.Relates a history of terrorists attacks in Mumbai and more broadly in India.Educates about Indian analytic roles and responsibilities.Explicates the analytic challenge.
6Analytic Framework “Straight Line” Unimaginative Often Incorrect History of AttacksTerrorist GroupsThink DivergentlyThink DiagnosticallyRange of OutcomesDiagnostic signposts“Actionable”Structured BrainstormingRed Hat AnalysisQuadrant CrunchingIndicatorsIndicator Validator
7The Task: Implement an Analytic Framework Anticipate how the terrorists might launch the attack.Recognize the signs that specific scenarios are unfolding.Tailor a set of collection requirements.Generate actionable intelligence analysis for the field.Structured BrainstormingRed Hat AnalysisQuadrant CrunchingIndicators & Indicator ValidatorAnalytic Value Added
8Structured Brainstorming Task: Identify all the various modes of transport the terrorists might use to enter Mumbai.Value Added: The two-staged options and outliers that spark new avenues of inquiry.
9Red Hat AnalysisTask: prioritize the list of various modes of transport the terrorists might use to enter Mumbai.Minimize chances of detection in planning, while in transit, and during the attack.Means to transport the terrorists’ weapons and ammunition.Maintain control over the timing and logistics of the operation.Opt for simplest methods to minimize potential miscalculations.Maximize the chances of escape when the operation concludes.Minimize the need to depend on good weather.
10Quadrant Crunching Task: Determine the ways terrorists might launch an attack on Mumbai.Value Added: helps the analyst identify and challenge key assumptions and create an array of credible, alternative scenarios that help inform law enforcement.
11Indicators & Indictors Validator Task: Create separate sets of indicators for the most attention-deserving scenarios and determine which indicators are most diagnostic.ObservableCollectibleReliableValidStableUnique
12Key TakeawaysStructured Brainstorming prompts creative thinking to ensure that all possible options have been considered.Quadrant Crunching generates a robust set of alternatives because it forces the analyst to consider the problem through various prisms.Analysts should focus their energies on developing truly diagnostic indicators that can focus the attention of investigators on what really matters, especially when time is of the essence.
13Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques In Action Book of Twelve Cases; Twenty online andover 36 analytic exercises.Sarah Miller Beebe & Randolph H. PhersonForthcoming in October 2011 from CQ PressBook & Digital formatsPublish on Demand.Instructor MaterialsLesson Plans.Assessment Rubrics.Notional Solutions.
14Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases Defending MumbaiSarah Miller Beebe