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Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases Defending Mumbai Sarah Miller Beebe Defending Mumbai Sarah Miller Beebe www.ascendantanalytics.com.

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Presentation on theme: "Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases Defending Mumbai Sarah Miller Beebe Defending Mumbai Sarah Miller Beebe www.ascendantanalytics.com."— Presentation transcript:

1 Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases Defending Mumbai Sarah Miller Beebe Defending Mumbai Sarah Miller Beebe

2 The Case for Cases  Introduces key concepts and lexicon.  Bridges theory and practice.  Models question-driven analysis.  Engages analyst in active learning.  Drives home the principles of critical thinking.  Reinforces effective collaborative processes.  Provides a practical and repeatable analytic framework.  Introduces key concepts and lexicon.  Bridges theory and practice.  Models question-driven analysis.  Engages analyst in active learning.  Drives home the principles of critical thinking.  Reinforces effective collaborative processes.  Provides a practical and repeatable analytic framework.

3 Elements of Success  Clear questions.  Compelling narrative.  Well-crafted exercises.  Explicit analytic value-added.  Thorough instructor materials that add context and impact for students.  Conclusions  Recommended Readings  Key Takeaways  Notional Solutions  Illustrative of specific types of analytic problems. Provide a sound and repeatable analytic framework.  Clear questions.  Compelling narrative.  Well-crafted exercises.  Explicit analytic value-added.  Thorough instructor materials that add context and impact for students.  Conclusions  Recommended Readings  Key Takeaways  Notional Solutions  Illustrative of specific types of analytic problems. Provide a sound and repeatable analytic framework.

4 Defending Mumbai: A Case In Action  Challenge: to identify and transform a generalized vulnerability or threat into actionable intelligence analysis and collection requirements.  The United States quietly told the Indian government that intelligence collected in Pakistan warned of an oncoming attack against hotels and business centers in Mumbai.  Challenge: to identify and transform a generalized vulnerability or threat into actionable intelligence analysis and collection requirements.  The United States quietly told the Indian government that intelligence collected in Pakistan warned of an oncoming attack against hotels and business centers in Mumbai.

5 The Case Opens  The analysts put themselves in the shoes of Indian analysts to dissect the the threat.  The key resource is the case narrative:  Paints picture of Mumbai.  Describes the threat.  Relates a history of terrorists attacks in Mumbai and more broadly in India.  Educates about Indian analytic roles and responsibilities.  Explicates the analytic challenge.  The analysts put themselves in the shoes of Indian analysts to dissect the the threat.  The key resource is the case narrative:  Paints picture of Mumbai.  Describes the threat.  Relates a history of terrorists attacks in Mumbai and more broadly in India.  Educates about Indian analytic roles and responsibilities.  Explicates the analytic challenge.

6 Analytic Framework History of Attacks Terrorist Groups “Straight Line” Unimaginative Often Incorrect Structured Brainstorming Red Hat Analysis Quadrant Crunching Think Divergently Indicators Indicator Validator Range of Outcomes Diagnostic signposts “Actionable” Think Diagnostically

7 The Task: Implement an Analytic Framework  Anticipate how the terrorists might launch the attack.  Recognize the signs that specific scenarios are unfolding.  Tailor a set of collection requirements.  Generate actionable intelligence analysis for the field.  Anticipate how the terrorists might launch the attack.  Recognize the signs that specific scenarios are unfolding.  Tailor a set of collection requirements.  Generate actionable intelligence analysis for the field.  Structured Brainstorming  Red Hat Analysis  Quadrant Crunching  Indicators & Indicator Validator Analytic Value Added

8 Structured Brainstorming Task: Identify all the various modes of transport the terrorists might use to enter Mumbai. Value Added: The two-staged options and outliers that spark new avenues of inquiry.

9 Red Hat Analysis Task: prioritize the list of various modes of transport the terrorists might use to enter Mumbai.  Minimize chances of detection in planning, while in transit, and during the attack.  Means to transport the terrorists’ weapons and ammunition.  Maintain control over the timing and logistics of the operation.  Opt for simplest methods to minimize potential miscalculations.  Maximize the chances of escape when the operation concludes.  Minimize the need to depend on good weather.

10 Quadrant Crunching Task: Determine the ways terrorists might launch an attack on Mumbai. Task: Determine the ways terrorists might launch an attack on Mumbai. Value Added: helps the analyst identify and challenge key assumptions and create an array of credible, alternative scenarios that help inform law enforcement.

11 Indicators & Indictors Validator Task: Create separate sets of indicators for the most attention-deserving scenarios and determine which indicators are most diagnostic.  Observable  Collectible  Reliable  Valid  Stable  Unique

12 Key Takeaways  Structured Brainstorming prompts creative thinking to ensure that all possible options have been considered.  Quadrant Crunching generates a robust set of alternatives because it forces the analyst to consider the problem through various prisms.  Analysts should focus their energies on developing truly diagnostic indicators that can focus the attention of investigators on what really matters, especially when time is of the essence.  Structured Brainstorming prompts creative thinking to ensure that all possible options have been considered.  Quadrant Crunching generates a robust set of alternatives because it forces the analyst to consider the problem through various prisms.  Analysts should focus their energies on developing truly diagnostic indicators that can focus the attention of investigators on what really matters, especially when time is of the essence.

13 Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques In Action  Book of Twelve Cases; Twenty online and over 36 analytic exercises.  Sarah Miller Beebe & Randolph H. Pherson  Forthcoming in October 2011 from CQ Press  Book & Digital formats  Publish on Demand.  Instructor Materials  Lesson Plans.  Assessment Rubrics.  Notional Solutions.  Book of Twelve Cases; Twenty online and over 36 analytic exercises.  Sarah Miller Beebe & Randolph H. Pherson  Forthcoming in October 2011 from CQ Press  Book & Digital formats  Publish on Demand.  Instructor Materials  Lesson Plans.  Assessment Rubrics.  Notional Solutions.

14 Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases Defending Mumbai Sarah Miller Beebe Defending Mumbai Sarah Miller Beebe


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