1. Presentation to the UN workshop The Challenge of Sustainability
The world economy’s use of natural resources: history, dynamics, drivers and future perspectives
Marina Fischer-Kowalski
Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna
Alpen Adria University

2. Six messages I wish to get across
Centennial resource use explosion
Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density
sociometabolic regimes and transitions between them inform future scenarios of resource use
Relative decoupling is business as usual and drives growth; absolute decoupling is rare
Reference point for resource use: human wellbeing rather than income generation
Need to understand complex system dynamics, dispose of some illusions and utilize windows of opportunity in space and time
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

3. Message 1: Centennial resource use explosion
The sociometabolic scale of the world economy has been increasing by one order of magnitude during the last century:
Materials use: From 7 billion tons to over 60 bio t (extraction of primary materials annually).
Energy use: From 44 EJ primary energy to 480 EJ (TPES, commercial energy only).
Land use: from 25 mio km2 cropland to 50 mio km2
Definition: sociometabolic scale is the size of the overall annual material or
primary energy input of a socio-economic system, measured according to
established standards of MEFA analysis. For land use, no standard measure of scale is defined.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

4. sociometabolic scale: Global commercial energy supply 1900-2005
resource use
sociometabolic scale: Global commercial energy supply
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009

5. Metabolic scale: Global materials use 1900 to 2005
resource use
Metabolic scale: Global materials use 1900 to 2005
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009

6. Composition of Global materials use 1900 to 2005: mineralization
resource use
Composition of Global materials use to 2005: mineralization
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009

7. Global land-use change 1700-2000 Biome 300 data
resource use
Global land-use change Biome 300 data
1990
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Klein Goldewijk 2001

8. drivers
Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density
Population numbers
Rising income (GDP)
“Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime.
Human settlement patterns: higher population density allows lower resource use
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

9. Global sociometabolic rates doubled
drivers
Global sociometabolic rates doubled
Population is the strongest driver of resource use. On top of it, resource use per human inhabitant of the earth has been more than doubling during the 20th century, and is accelerating since.
materials use per capita: was about 4,6 tons by the beginning and is by 8 tons at the end of the century;
global energy use per capita: was about 30 Gigajoule. By the end of the century, it was 75 Gigajoule.
Definition: Metabolic rate is the metabolic scale of a socio-economic system divided by its population number = annual material / energy use per capita.
It represents the biophysical burden associated to an average individual.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

10. drivers
sociometabolic rates: Transitions between stable levels across 20th century
Materials
Energy
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009

11. drivers
Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density
Population numbers
Rising income (GDP)
“Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime.
Human settlement patterns: higher population density allows lower resource use
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

12. drivers
Metabolic rate (materials) and income: loglinear relation, no sign of a “Kuznets curve”
R2 = 0.64
N = 175 countries
Year 2000
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010

13. Global metabolic rates grow slower than income („decoupling“)
drivers
Global metabolic rates grow slower than income („decoupling“)
Global DMC, t/cap/yr (left axis)
Global TPES, GJ/cap/yr (left axis)
Global GDP, $/cap*yr (right axis)
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009

14. drivers
Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density
Population numbers
Rising income (GDP)
“Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime.
Human settlement patterns: higher population density allows lower resource use
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

15. drivers
If we wish to link resource use to „development“, we need a wider energy concept
The key energy base for agrarian societies is biomass for nutrition of humans and animals from land (solar based).
To understand the development from the agrarian to the industrial regime, we need to account for the energetic base of nutrition in addition to the modern concept of commercial primary energy (TPES)
In analogue to system wide material flows, the following figures account for system wide (primary) energy flows.
They show „development“ to be a transition in energy source from solar (biomass) to fossil fuels.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
See Haberl 2001

16. Share of energy sources in primary energy consumption (% DEC)
drivers
the agrarian - industrial transition: from biomass to fossil fuels in the UK,
Share of energy sources in primary energy consumption (% DEC)
biomass
coal
Oil / gas / nuc
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Social Ecology Data Base

17. the energy transition 1700-2000 - latecomers
drivers
the energy transition latecomers UK
Austria
Share of energy sources in primary energy consumption (% DEC)
Japan
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Social Ecology Data Base

18. drivers
The Great Transformation: Reduction of agricultural population, and gain in income
United Kingdom
Austria
Japan
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Maddison 2002, Social Ecology DB

19. drivers
Metabolic rates of the agrarian and industrial regime transition = explosion
MFK has already introduced the hypothesis of the metabolic transition. A hypothesis derived from empirical evidence which suggests, that industrialization leads to fundamental changes in structure and size of social metabolism.
The core aspects are: Trnasformation of the energy system
The role of land use within the energy system changes (from energy source to sink)
And a new level of material and energy consumption is reached: population grows and with population material and energy use grows, in a second phase also per capita consumption grows.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Krausmann et al. 2008

20. drivers
Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density
Population numbers
Rising income (GDP)
“Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime.
Human settlement patterns: population density as constraint for resource use
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

21. drivers
Resource consumption per capita by development status and population density
Share of world population
13% 6%
62%
industrial
developing
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
Metab.rates: DMC t/cap in yr 2000

22. Resumé: Drivers of resource consumption, good news and bad news
Resource consumption is driven by population growth, development (metabolic regime transition), rising income, and constrained by population density
Population density works as a constraint because of lack of space for extended extraction processes (such as mining) and waste deposition, and because pollution from resource extraction and use directly harms people
But also: high density living allows material well being at much lower energy and material cost. This is mainly due to better capacity utilization of infrastructure, if well designed.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

23. transitions
Message 3: sociometabolic regimes and transitions in the 20th Century 1. Coal based regime of industrialization (coal, steam engine, railways, dominated by GB) phasing out ~ Oil based regime (oil, cars, electricity, Fordism, American Way of Life, US dominated) phasing out ~ Next regime (solar based? knowledge? information?) not yet phasing in, latency situation
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

24. Phases of global resource use dynamics
transitions
Phases of global resource use dynamics
2000
1973
Materials
1930
Energy
BUBBLE
coal based
oil based
Latency
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009

25. transitions
material metabolic rates 1935 – 2005 not synchronized: very different depending on development status
USA
EU15
JAPAN
1973
1973
Construction min.
Ind. min. & ores
Fossil fuels
biomass
WORLD
BRAZIL
INDIA
1973
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Sources: USA: Gierlinger 2009, EU-15: Eurostat Database, Japan: Japan Ministry of the Enivronment 2007, Brazil: Mayer 2009, India: Lanz 2009, World: Krausmann et. al. 2009

26. Notable trends in material resource use
transitions
Notable trends in material resource use
Apparently, since the first oil crisis in 1973, all major industrial countries have stabilized their resource use / capita (metabolic rates), although at different levels
Japan has managed to lower its material use rates in the past 15 years through well designed policies by ~30%
Many developing countries have started increasing their metabolic rates; some very large countries (China, India) have only recently gained momentum, some countries (esp. in Africa) have not yet started
Despite an expected slowdown in population growth, these trends lead to an explosive rise in global resource demand
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

27. Three forced future scenarios of resource use
transitions
Three forced future scenarios of resource use
Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic rates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to same rates
incompatible with IPCC climate protection targets
Moderate contraction & convergence: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up
compatible with moderate IPCC climate protection targets
Tough contraction & convergence: global resource consumption of the year 2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic rates
compatible with strict IPCC climate protection targets
Built into all scenarios: population (by mean UN projection), development transitions, population density as a constraint, stable composition by material groups
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010

28. Projections of resource use up to 2050 – three forced future scenarios
transitions
Projections of resource use up to 2050 – three forced future scenarios
Global metabolic scale (Gt)
Global metabolic rate (t/cap)
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010

29. Scenario 1: Freeze and catching up
transitions
Scenario 1: Freeze and catching up
By 2050, this scenario results in a global metabolic scale of 140 billion tons annually, and an average global metabolic rate of 16 tons / cap. In relation to the year 2000, this would imply more than a tripling of annual global resource extraction, and establish global metabolic rates that correspond to the present European average. Average per capita carbon emissions would triple to 3.2 tons/cap and global emissions would more than quadruple to 28.8 GtC/yr.
This scenario represents an extremely unsustainable future in terms of both resource use and emissions, exceeding all possible measures of environmental limits. Its emissions are higher than the highest scenarios in the IPCC SRES (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000), but since the IPCC scenarios have already been outpaced by the evolution since 2000 (Raupach et al. 2007), it might in fact be closer to the real trend.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

30. Scenario 2: Factor 2 and catching up
transitions
Scenario 2: Factor 2 and catching up
By 2050, this scenario amounts to a global metabolic scale of 70 billion tons, which means about 40% more annual resource extraction than in the year The average global metabolic rate would stay roughly the same as in 2000, at 8 tons / cap. The average CO2 emissions per capita would increase by almost 50% to 1.6 tons per capita, and global emissions would more than double to 14.4 GtC.
Taken as a whole, this would be a scenario of friendly moderation: while overall constraints (e.g. food supply) are not transgressed in a severe way beyond what they are now, developing countries have the chance for a rising share in global resources, and for some absolute increase in resource use, while industrial countries have to cut on their overconsumption. Its carbon emissions correspond to the middle of the range of IPCC SRES climate scenarios.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

31. Scenario 3: Freeze global material use
transitions
Scenario 3: Freeze global material use
By 2050, this scenario amounts to a global metabolic scale of 50 billion tons (the same as in the year 2000) and allows for an average global metabolic rate of only 6 tons /cap (equal, for example, to that of India in the year 2000). The average per capita carbon emissions would be reduced by roughly 40% to 0.75 tons/cap – global emissions obviously would remain constant at the 2000 level of 6.7 GtC/yr.
Taken as a whole, this would be a scenario of tough restraint. Even in this scenario the global ecological footprint of the human population on earth would exceed global biocapacity (unless substantial efficiency gains and reductions in carbon emissions would make it drop), but the pressure on the environment, despite a larger world population, would be roughly the same as it is now. The carbon emissions correspond approximately to the lowest range of scenario B1 of the IPCC SRES, but are still 20% above the roughly 5.5 GtC/yr advocated by the Global Commons Institute for contraction and convergence in emissions (GCI 2003).
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

32. decoupling
Message 4: Relative decoupling is business as usual and drives growth; absolute decoupling happens rarely and so far only at low rates of economic growth
decoupling
human wellbeing
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

33. decoupling
European Union: material de-growth (=absolute decoupling) only at low economic growth rates
EU15
EU27
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |
Source: Social Ecology DB; averages

34. human wellbeing
Message 5: a new transition, to a sustainable industrial metabolism, should be directed at human wellbeing! And YES, WE CAN!
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

35. Evtl. preston folie einfügen!
human wellbeing
Life expectancy at birth in relation to national income: In 1960, for same life expectancy less than half the income is required than in 1930!
Evtl. preston folie einfügen!
Source: Preston 1975 (2008)
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

36. Human development vs. Carbon emissions
human wellbeing
Human development vs. Carbon emissions
HDI
R2 = 0,75 – 0,85
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
Source: Steinberger & Roberts 2009
Carbon emissions
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |

37. References
Samuel H. Preston (1975). The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development. Reprinted in: Int.J.Epidemiol. 36 (3): , 2007.
Julia K. Steinberger and J. Timmons Roberts. Decoupling energy and carbon from human needs. Ecological Economics: submitted, 2010.
UNEP Decoupling report: Decoupling and Sustainable Resource Management: Scoping the challenges. Lead authors M.Swilling & M.Fischer-Kowalski, to be issued Paris 2010
Fridolin Krausmann, Simone Gingrich, Nina Eisenmenger, Karl-Heinz Erb, Helmut Haberl, and Marina Fischer-Kowalski. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century. Ecological Economics 68 (10): , 2009.
Klein Goldewijk, K Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 (2):
Fridolin Krausmann, Marina Fischer-Kowalski, Heinz Schandl, and Nina Eisenmenger. The global socio-metabolic transition: past and present metabolic profiles and their future trajectories. Journal of Industrial Ecology 12 (5/6): , 2008.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ |