Innovation leading to increased labour productivity if inadequate economic growth unemployment up consumption down tax revenues down deficits up public expenditures down loan defaults up investment down lower economic growth The dilemma of growth
Global Footprint Network Global Ecological Footprint World biocapacity Number of planets 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2007 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Year OVERSHOOT - depletion of natural capital The dilemma of growth
The dilemma of growth World GDP (constant $) and CO 2 emissions
Beyond Decoupling Source: Prosperity without growth, Tim Jackson, 2009) x 130 improvement
Towards an Ecological Macroeconomics K. Raworth, 2011 A safe and just space for humanity Can We Live Within The Doughnut?
LowGrow Canada Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance, reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth? Managing without growth
‘Business as usual’ GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Poverty Unemployment Debt to GDP Ratio
What happens if we eliminate increases in all sources of economic growth? (starting in 2010 over 10 years) Consumption Investment Government Trade Population/labour Productivity
A no growth disaster GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Poverty Unemployment Debt to GDP Ratio
A better low/no growth scenario How? Stable population and labour force Carbon price Reduced net investment Balanced trade Shorter work year More generous anti-poverty programs GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Unemployment PovertyDebt to GDP Ratio
Real Natural Towards an Ecological Macroeconomics
Financial Real Natural Towards an Ecological Macroeconomics
GEMMA (Green Economic Macro Model and Accounts) Is economic growth required in advanced economies to maintain high levels of employment, reduce poverty, and meet ambitious ecological and resource targets? Does stability of the financial system require growth in the 'real' economy? Will restraints on demand and supply in anticipation of or response to ecological and resource constraints, cause instability in the real economy and or financial system?