Presentation on theme: "PRIMA Prototypical Policy Impacts on Multifunctional Activities in Rural Municipalities 1/11/2008 – 31/10/2011 (36 months) 7 th PCRD, Environnement."— Presentation transcript:
PRIMA Prototypical Policy Impacts on Multifunctional Activities in Rural Municipalities 1/11/2008 – 31/10/2011 (36 months) 7 th PCRD, Environnement
IRES 19.04.2010N°2 Aim of the project I compute my next state To develop downscaling and upscaling methods of policy impacts on multifunctionality based on microsimulation and agent based models
IRES 19.04.2010N°3 Prima modelling approaches Micro-simulation Simple agents, with rules of evolutions based on probabilities of events, or simple decision rules (no complex interactions between agents) Common approach to couple demography with other types of dynamics Agent-based models More complex decision rules, taking into account the interactions between agents Heterogeneity of decision rules between agents
IRES 19.04.2010N°4 Aim of the project The models have to deal with the structural evolution of the populations (appearance, disappearance and change of agents) regarding local conditions and policies. European measures to take into account are build from: Structural Funds (SFs), Cohesion Fund (CF), Preaccession funds (PAFs) Cohesion funds sensu lato (ERDF, ESF, Cohesion) Pre-accession Funds (ISPA)(EAFRD) Axis 1: Competitiveness Axis 2: Environment & Land management Axis 3: Economic diversification & Quality of life xis "LEADER" Objectives dealing with Competitiveness… Rural Development Funds Axis LEADER …Environment & Land management… …Economic diversification & Quality of life Environment Transport
IRES 19.04.2010N°5 11 members from 8 countries 1.Cemagref, France, coordinator 2.University of Dortmund, Faculty of Spatial Planning, Germany 3.University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgary 4.Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Dept. of Economics and Resources Management, Norway 5.Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands 6.Newcastle University, Centre for Rural Economy, Royaume-Uni 7.Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe, Halle/Saale, Germany 8.University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, The Netherlands 9.Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands 10.Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Czech Republic 11.University of Zagreb, Faculty of Agriculture, Croatia
IRES 19.04.2010N°9 LISC agenda 1.Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality 2.Test and adapt it to the case study regions 3.Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based on the one of municipality 4.Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the pertinent level for a given process 5.Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible futures given by the model Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders and extraction of their knowledge on the story basis.
IRES 19.04.2010N°10 A conceptual model The modelling work required clear objectives for the model. These objectives are defined by the scientific questions addressed by the model: What are the main tendencies at municipality level in terms of: structure of the population structure of activities (especially their diversity) structure of land use From a practical point of view, the interpretation of the model results has to allow to answer to: How these tendencies induced a particular level and form of multifunctionality assessed at the municipality level ? What is the likely impact on these tendencies of different European policies ?
IRES 19.04.2010N°11 Objective of micro-simulation model model the evolution of: population (size, distribution of age), distribution of activities and housing land use distribution (main categories), offer of main services, in one municipality (or a small set of municipalities) on a first stage in all rural municipalities of a region for WP4 on the second stage under scenario on: municipality policy (in particular the use of structural funds) external context evolution
IRES 19.04.2010N°12 Discovering the conceptual model Viewed by an individual Viewed at the village level Viewed at the regional level
IRES 19.04.2010N°13 LIVE SITUATED MEMBER HAS AN ACTIVITY PATTERN 01000000100000 CONSUMES SERVICES The individual ages in a situated household INSIDE MUNICIPALITY SITUATED OR OUTSIDE
IRES 19.04.2010N°14 Conceptual model: the village, state variables Households Lodging L1L2L3L4 Land use U1U2 U4 Municipality Other Industries J2J1J3 Services S1 S2 J4 Reachable outside J6J5 Other industriesServices S3 S4 J5
IRES 19.04.2010N°15 The municipality model MunicipalityReachable outside access to jobs and services
IRES 19.04.2010N°16 The region model M1 M3 M2 M4 M6M7 M5 M8 M9 RO1 RO2 RO5 RO8 RO7 RO9 RO6 RO3
IRES 19.04.2010N°17 The dynamics Individual and household: mainly endogeneous Village as a “policy” maker: partly endogeneous and exogeneous Region: that is the outside -> exogeneous
IRES 19.04.2010N°18 The model dynamics: main loop At each time step: For all municipalities and reachable outside: apply scenario: update jobs, services, land use, generate potential migrants For all households (including migrants): update household (age of individuals, location, house and activity, household structure) For all municipalities: update land use, houses, jobs and services (according to internal dynamics)
IRES 19.04.2010N°19 State variables Examples Individuals …ac2ac1activit …p2p1profile …a2a1age …i2i1index profile = « catégorie socio-professionnelle » activity = [status, activity nature, activity place], status: categories from labour survey including inactive, unemployed, student, retired… Households …R2R1house …L2L1ind lst …t2t1type …h2h1index type = single, couple, single parent, other house = type of house Land use …CLu2CLu1constr. …SLu2SLu1surfac. …Lu2Lu1type type = residential, industry, agriculture, forest, infrastructure (from CORINE) constraints = limit surfaces …nR2nR1nb …R2R1type Housing type = flat or house, nb of rooms. Services …nXS2nXS1nb ro …nS2nS1nb in …S2S1type type = broad categories from surveys reachable outside = outside model municipalities accessible services. Jobs …nXJ2nXJ1nb ro …nJ2nJ1nb in …J2J1type type = matching activities reachable outside = idem. Neighbour Municipalities ListNeighbourMunic Based on distance between municipalities
IRES 19.04.2010N°20 State variables and scenarios Individuals …ac2ac1activit …p2p1profile …a2a1age …i2i1index Households Land use …nR2nR1nb …R2R1type Houses Services Jobs …CLu2CLu1constr. …SLu2SLu1surfac. …Lu2Lu1type …nXS2nXS1nb ro …nS2nS1nb in …S2S1type …nXJ2nXJ1nb ro …nJ2nJ1nb in …J2J1type Neighbour Municipalities ListNeighbourMunic …Lx2Lx1ind lst …tx2tx1type …hx2hx1index …acx2acx1activit …px2px1profile …ax2ax1age …ix2ix1index Migrations from outside only Migrations from outside only … CLu2 CLu1 CC … SLu2 SLu1 SS …Lu2Lu1type … nR2 nR1 nb …R2R1type … nXS2 nXS1 nb ro … nS2 nS1 nb in …S2S1type … nXJ2 nXJ1 nb ro … nJ2 nJ1 nb in …J2J1type ListNeighbourMunic State variablesScenario …R2R1house …L2L1ind lst …t2t1type …h2h1index
IRES 19.04.2010N°21 Regional scenario Municipality set scenario Applies to a set of municipalities. Applies to all municipalities of the region Municipality scenario Applies to only one municipality. Multi-level scenarios
IRES 19.04.2010N°22 Internal dynamics Individuals …ac2ac1activit …p2p1profile …a2a1age …i2i1index Households Land use …nR2nR1nb …R2R1type Houses Services Jobs …CLu2CLu1constr. …SLu2SLu1surfac. …Lu2Lu1type …nXS2nXS1nb ro …nS2nS1nb in …S2S1type …nXJ2nXJ1nb ro …nJ2nJ1nb in …J2J1type Neighbour Municipalities ListNeighbourMunic State variablesDynamics …R2R1house …L2L1ind lst …t2t1type …h2h1index all events – see details after split, merge, collapse, birth, move Building of new houses by households Creation – destruction of services connected with population density and distribution Creation – destruction of service jobs
IRES 19.04.2010N°23 Rural individual endogeneous dynamics An individual ages. During its life, it: N°23 quits the parental household joins a partner quits a partner stops the study to enter on the labour market has a child intentionally remains without working looks for a job looks for a residence loses a job gets a job changes of job without changing village changes of job place moves for changing of residence in the same village moves for changing of village but remains close moves outside asks for services stops using services dies
IRES 19.04.2010N°24 Individual dynamics: Deciding looking for a job Labour survey
IRES 19.04.2010N°25 Household dynamics: moving and working
IRES 19.04.2010N°26 LISC agenda 1.Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality 2.Test and adapt it to the case study regions 3.Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based on the one of municipality 4.Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the pertinent level for a given process 5.Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible futures given by the model Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders and extraction of their knowledge on the story basis.