Presentation on theme: "Q4 2014 and 2015 Targets investor conference call February 12, 2015 Darren Entwistle, Executive Chair Joe Natale, President and Chief Executive Officer."— Presentation transcript:
Q4 2014 and 2015 Targets investor conference call February 12, 2015 Darren Entwistle, Executive Chair Joe Natale, President and Chief Executive Officer John Gossling, EVP and Chief Financial Officer
2 Today's presentation and answers to questions contain statements about financial and operating performance of TELUS (the Company) and future events, including with respect to future dividend increases and normal course issuer bids to 2016 and 2015 annual targets that are forward-looking. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that the forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future performance and events to differ materially from that expressed in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly, our comments are subject to the disclaimer and qualified by the assumptions (including assumptions for 2015 annual targets, semi-annual dividend increases through 2016 and our ability to sustain and complete multi-year share purchase program through 2016), qualifications and risk factors referred to in the fourth quarter Managements review of operations and in the 2014 annual Management’s discussion and analysis, and in other TELUS public disclosure documents and filings with securities commissions in Canada (on SEDAR at sedar.com) and in the United States (on EDGAR at sec.gov). Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual targets and guidance. TELUS forward looking statement
Executing on our strategy 3 TELUS consistently delivering strong results and returning significant cash to shareholders Increasing customer connections Focusing on delivering exceptional customer experience Investing for future sustainable growth Returning significant cash to our shareholders Establishing strong 2015 financial targets
Stronger wireless postpaid net additions 4 Postpaid net adds (000s) Q4-13 113 Q4-14 Wireless subscribers 1 8.1M total 1.0M prepaid 88% 12% 7.1M postpaid 118 1 Wireless operating indicators exclude Public Mobile subscribers, which are all prepaid. Year over year postpaid net additions up for a second consecutive quarter Q3-14 113 106 Q3-13 Q2-14 78 100 Q2-13
Industry-leading wireless churn 5 1.41% Q4-13 1.33% Q4-14 Blended 1 Postpaid 0.97% Q4-13 0.94% Q4-14 Q4-12 1.51% 1.12% Sixth consecutive quarter with postpaid churn <1% 1 Wireless operating indicators exclude Public Mobile subscribers, which are all prepaid.
Smartphone & data adoption driving ARPU growth 6 Q4-12Q4-13Q4-14 6.5 6.8 7.1 Postpaid subscribers (millions) Smartphone % of postpaid $61.86 $64.20 $60.95 Blended ARPU 1 Q4-12Q4-13Q4-14 66% 77% 81% Q4 smartphone penetration up four points to 81% of postpaid base supporting strong ARPU growth of 3.8% 1 Wireless operating indicators exclude Public Mobile subscribers, which are all prepaid.
Industry-leading lifetime revenue per subscriber 1,2 7 Q4-13Q4-14 $4,827 $4,387 1 Lifetime revenue derived by dividing ARPU by blended churn rate. 2 Wireless operating indicators exclude Public Mobile subscribers, which are all prepaid. Q4-12 $4,036 Customers First focus supporting industry-leading lifetime revenue per subscriber – up 10% YoY
Growing wireline subscriber base 8 TELUS TV Residential NALs High-speed Internet Total wireline RGU net adds Q2-14 2324 -19 -24 48 42 Q3-14Q4-14 25 -25 50 -30 59 Q4-13 29 Business NALs Delivering positive wireline subscriber growth RGU 1 net adds (000s) 1 Revenue generating units
Key fourth quarter operating highlights 9 2015 targets reflect confidence we can continue to set TELUS apart and create further value for our customers and investors Strong postpaid wireless subscriber growth Lowest postpaid churn in North America Industry-leading and growing ARPU Industry-leading and growing lifetime revenue per customer Most rapidly growing wireline business in Canada 1 For definition, see section 5.1 in Q4 2014 Management’s review of operations.
Q4 2014 wireless financial results 10 ($ millions, except margin) Q4 2014y/y change Revenue (external) 1 1,744+10.0% Network revenue1,549+8.0% EBITDA629+6.3% EBITDA margin 2 35.8%(1.2) pts Capital expenditures188(11.7%) TELUS delivers another strong quarter of wireless results 1 Q4/14 and Q4/13 includes Public Mobile revenue of $16M and $9M respectively, composed of network revenues of $16M and $7M respectively, and equipment and other revenues of $NIL and $2M respectively. 2 EBITDA as a percentage of total revenue.
Q4 2014 wireline financial results 11 ($ millions, except margin) Q4 2014y/y change Revenue (external) 1,384+1.5% EBITDA372+3.4% EBITDA (excl. restructuring) 392+3.1% EBITDA margin 1 26.0%+0.4 pts EBITDA margin (excl. restructuring) 27.4%+0.4 pts Capital expenditures382+4.9% Strong EBITDA growth and margin expansion reflecting continued revenue growth momentum and efficiency flow-through 1 EBITDA as a percentage of total revenue.
Q4 2014 consolidated financial results 12 ($ millions, except EPS) Q4 2014y/y change Revenue3,128+6.1% EBITDA1,001+5.3% EPS (basic)0.51+8.5% Capital expenditures570(1.2%) Free cash flow337148% Strength in both wireless and wireline delivering strong consolidated growth in revenue and profitability
EPS continuity analysis 13 EPS growth reflects strong EBITDA growth and lower shares outstanding from active NCIB program Q4-13 (as reported) EBITDA Lower O/S shares (NCIB) Q4-14 (as reported) Financing & Other $0.47 $0.05 $0.01 ($0.01) Depreciation $0.51
2015 targets and key assumptions See forward-looking statement in TELUS fourth quarter 2014 and 2015 targets news release
2015 segmented targets 1 15 Segmented targets building on our strong momentum achieved in 2014 1 See forward looking statement caution and assumptions in Section 1.5 of fourth quarter 2014 Management’s review of operations. Wireless ($B)2015 targetsTargeted change Network revenue (external)$6.175 to $6.300B3 to 5% EBITDA (excluding restructuring)$2.850 to $2.950B3 to 7% Wireline ($B)2015 targetsTargeted change Revenue (external)$5.525 to $5.625B2 to 4% EBITDA (excluding restructuring)$1.550 to $1.625B1 to 6%
2015 consolidated targets 1 16 Targets demonstrate benefits of ongoing network and service-related investments, combined with customer-focused operational execution 1 See forward looking statement caution and assumptions in Section 1.5 of fourth quarter 2014 Management’s review of operations. $B, except EPS2015 targetsTargeted change Revenue$12.350 to $12.5503 to 5% EBITDA (including restructuring)$4.325 to $4.5003 to 7% EPS$2.40 to $2.604 to 13% Capital expendituresSimilar to 2014 ____
2015 key assumptions 1 17 Key assumptions and sensitivities listed in section 1.5 in Q4 Management’s review of operations 1 See forward looking statement caution and assumptions in Section 1.5 of fourth quarter 2014 Management’s review of operations. Pension accounting discount rate of 3.90% Defined benefit pension expense of approximately $132M (approximately $106M in Employee benefits expense and $26M in Financing costs) Defined benefit pension plan cash funding of approximately $88M Restructuring and other like costs of approximately $75M Cash taxes in the range of $280 to $340M Statutory income tax rate of 26.0 to 26.5%
Our balance sheet strength 18 Strong balance sheet supporting broadband investments, spectrum purchases and returning capital to shareholders Long-term net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.19x at year end 2014 Excellent debt maturity schedule with average maturity 1 at 10.9 years and average cost of debt at approximately 4.7% Over $2 billion of available liquidity Investment grade credit ratings provide ready access to capital market funding 1 Average term to maturity figure excludes commercial paper
Returning significant cash to shareholders Executing on multi-year dividend growth and share purchase programs 15 dividend increases since 2004 to current $0.40/share or $1.60 annually 3.3M shares purchased through our advanced 2015 NCIB program through January 2015 for $136M 19 2004 to 2014 cumulative $11.0B $4.4B $6.6B Buybacks Dividends Strong track record of returning capital to shareholders by returning over $11 billion to shareholders since 2004
Appendix – free cash flow comparison 21 Q4 - 2014Q4 - 201320142013 EBITDA1,0019514,2164,018 Capex (excluding spectrum licenses)(570)(577)(2,359)(2,110) Net employee defined benefit plans expense222787108 Employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans (15)(27)(88)(200) Interest expense paid, net(128)(113)(410)(360) Income taxes paid, net of refunds1(120)(464)(438) Share-based compensation15(22)7424 Restructuring (disbursements) net of restructuring costs111719 Free Cash Flow3371361,0571,051 Spectrum(28)-(1,171)(67) Purchase of Common Shares for cancellation(112)-(612)(1,000) Dividends paid to holders of equity shares(233)(213)(913)(852) Cash payments for acquisitions and related investments(3)(229)(49)(261) Real estate joint ventures(16)(8)(53)(23) Working Capital and Other(86)33(58)139 Funds available for debt redemption(141)(281)(1,799)(1,013) Net issuance of debt(25)5851,5231,242 Increase in cash(166)304(276)229
22 Appendix - definitions EBITDA does not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS-IASB. We have issued guidance on and report EBITDA because it is a key measure used to evaluate performance at a consolidated level and the contribution of our two segments. For definition and explanation, see Section 5.1 in the 2014 fourth quarter Management’s review of operations
2015E free cash flow 23 Net cash interest payment EBITDA (net of restructuring) Capex Net cash tax payment 1 Cash pension contribution Free Cash Flow (before dividends and spectrum) 1 Midpoint used to calculate FCF range 2 Other includes share based compensation, restructuring net of restructuring costs, net employee defined benefit plans expense ~(450) 2015E $4,325 to 4,500 ~(2,359) (280) to (340) ~(88) 1,155 to 1,330 Free Cash Flow (before dividends, spectrum and pension contributions) 1,245 to 1,420 Simple Cash flow 1,965 to 2,140 Other 2 ~40 (410) 2014A $4,216 (2,359) (464) 1,057 1,145 1,857 162 (88)