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Immigration Reform: The Voters’ Outlook Key findings from nationwide telephone survey among 1,003 2012 voters conducted January 7 – 10, 2013 HART RESEARCH.

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Presentation on theme: "Immigration Reform: The Voters’ Outlook Key findings from nationwide telephone survey among 1,003 2012 voters conducted January 7 – 10, 2013 HART RESEARCH."— Presentation transcript:

1 Immigration Reform: The Voters’ Outlook Key findings from nationwide telephone survey among 1, voters conducted January 7 – 10, 2013 HART RESEARCH ASSOTESCIA

2 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 2 Immigration Is Good For America Overall View Of Immigration All Voters Good thing for America today Bad thing for America today Not sure Democrats Independents Republicans Whites African Americans Hispanics Good Thing 74% 60% 58% 63% 70% 69% Bad Thing 14% 23% 28% 24% 13% 13%

3 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 3 Immigration System Is Not Working Working well 75% How would you describe the state of the immigration system today? 20% All Voters Very well  Needs complete overhaul 46% Not working well/overhaul 48% of voters say that fixing the immigration system should be a high priority for Congress.

4 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 4 Public ’ s Goals For Immigration Reform This should be a high priority* for reforming the immigration system: * Seven-to-10 rating on a zero-to-10 scale, 10 = should be the single most important goal Make sure all immigrants pay taxes Require employers to verify that all employees are legal Pass a long-term solution that fixes the immigration problem once and for all Do more to secure the border to stop people from entering the country illegally Prevent employers from lowering wages by exploiting immigrant workers Prevent illegal immigrants from coming into the country in the future Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship Help unite families here that have been separated by our current immigration laws Deport all immigrants who have entered the United States illegally 89% 83% 79% 73% 71% 66% 63% 51% 40%

5 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 5 Public ’ s Goals For Immigration Reform: Democrats/Republicans This should be a high priority* for reforming the immigration system: * Seven-to-10 rating on a zero-to-10 scale, 10 = should be the single most important goal Make sure all immigrants pay taxes Require employers to verify that all employees are legal Pass a long-term solution that fixes the immigration problem once and for all Do more to secure the border to stop people from entering the country illegally Prevent employers from lowering wages by exploiting immigrant workers Prevent illegal immigrants from coming into the country in the future Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship Help unite families here that have been separated by our current immigration laws Deport all immigrants who have entered the United States illegally Demo- crats 84% 74% 78% 59% 75% 50% 72% 65% 28% Repub- licans 93% 83% 87% 70% 82% 53% 38% 52%

6 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 6 Voters Want Legal Status To Include Chance For Earned Citizenship This should be a high priority* for reforming the immigration system: * Seven-to-10 rating on a zero-to-10 scale, 10 = should be the single most important goal Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal… and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship but not be given a chance to earn citizenship ALL VOTERS Inde- pendents Repub- licans Liberals Moderates Conser- vatives Demo- crats

7 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 7 By Itself, A Path To Citizenship Creates An Interesting Political Dynamic Mean ratings Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship. 510 In The Middle Single Most Important Goal 6.3 Republicans 6.4 Independents 6.5 Union 6.3 GOP Primary Voters nd Generation Immigrant $50k-$100k 7.4 Less than $50k st Generation Immigrant 7.7 Democrats

8 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 8 Voters Say Border Security And Legal Status Are Both Important With which statement about immigration do you agree more? Improving border security and fixing our broken immigration system are both important. We should require immigrants to become legal and pay taxes, while also improving border security. The first priority on immigration should be getting control of our border. Until we do that, we should not be granting legal status to those who came here illegally, as it will just invite more illegal border crossings.

9 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 9 However, There Are Areas Of Partisan Friction As Voters Wrestle With Different Concepts With which statement about immigration do you agree more? The first priority on immigration should be getting control of our border. Until we do that, we should not be granting legal status to those who came here illegally, as it will just invite more illegal border crossings. Improving border security and fixing our broken immigration system are both important. We should require immigrants to become legal and pay taxes, while also improving border security. Democrats Independents Republicans

10 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 10 Strong Support For Immigration Reform Plan Approve 77% Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan 14% Disapprove Description Of Main Elements 1.Strengthens border security by deploying better technology and focusing enforcement resources on the most serious security threats. 2.Requires employers to verify that all employees are legal, and any companies that employ illegal immigrants would pay large fines. 3.Illegal immigrants already in the United States with no criminal record would be required to register for legal status, learn English, and pay taxes, and they could work toward citizenship over time. 4.Ties the amount of legal immigration to the state of the economy, increasing it when employers cannot fill jobs and decreasing immigration levels when unemployment is high. All Voters Strongly 38% Strongly 6%

11 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 11 Support for Immigration Reform Plan Crosses Partisan, Ideological Divides Approve 77% Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan 14% Disapprove All Voters Strongly 38% Strongly 6% Total Approve 77% 72% 80% 76% 82% 80% 77% 76% 77% 81% 77% 77% 72% 81% 77% 76% Democrats Independents Republicans Very conservative GOPs GOP primary voters Republican CDs Whites African Americans Hispanics Age 18 to 34 Age 35 to 49 Age 50 to 64 Age 65/over High school/less education Some college College graduates

12 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 12 Strongly approve Somewhat approve Illegal immigrants required to pay taxes Border security: better technology, focus Illegals with no criminal record must register for legal status Employers verify employees legal, large fines if employ illegals Work toward citizenship only if registered, learn English, pay taxes Illegal immigrants must learn English Legal immigration tied to economy/unemployment rate 94% 92% 89% 85% 57% Support For Individual Immigration Reform Policies 88% 83% Democrats 56% Republicans 58%

13 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 13 Voters More Likely To Support Pro-Reform Candidates More Likely To Vote How would it affect your vote for your Member of Congress if he/she voted for this immigration reform plan? All Voters Less Likely To Vote Wouldn’t Affect Vote More Likely 56% 47% 53% 50% 55% 53% 54% Democrats Independents Republicans Northeast South Midwest West Less Likely 7% 11% 8% 8% 6% 7% 12%

14 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 14 If Immigrants Become Legal, Earned Citizenship Should Be Available If immigration reform establishes legal status for people who originally entered the country illegally, which is the better way to do that? It would be better to give people a chance to eventually earn citizenship at some point after they register for legal status, pass a background check, learn English, and pay taxes. They should be allowed to qualify for legal status and work in the United States but should never be given the chance to earn citizenship. Neither/should not be given legal status (VOL) Republicans: Chance to earn citizenship83% Legal status/not citizenship10%

15 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 15 With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more? Opponents OPPONENTS say this is just amnesty for illegal immigrants. The plan rewards millions of illegal immigrants who broke the law, at the expense of others who waited in their home country and played by the rules. SUPPORTERS say this is not amnesty, it's accountability. The plan requires those here illegally to pay taxes, learn English, and pass a criminal background check before they can become legal and stay in the United States. Supporters Debating Immigration Reform: Amnesty?

16 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 16 With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more? OPPONENTS say it is not fair to let illegal immigrants become legal ahead of people who have followed the rules and applied to come here legally. If they found a way to get here, they can find a way to get home and then apply to come to the United States the right way. SUPPORTERS say it's not realistic to deport 12 million immigrants. And this plan requires illegal immigrants to go to the back of the line and wait their turn behind those immigrants who came to the United States legally, before receiving citizenship. Debating Immigration Reform: Unfair To Legal Immigrants? OpponentsSupporters

17 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 17 With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more? OPPONENTS say it is not fair to let illegal immigrants become legal ahead of people who have followed the rules and applied to come here legally. If they found a way to get here, they can find a way to get home and then apply to come to the United States the right way. SUPPORTERS say it's not realistic to deport 12 million immigrants. And this plan requires illegal immigrants to go to the back of the line and wait their turn behind those immigrants who came to the United States legally, before receiving citizenship. Debating Immigration Reform: Unfair To Legal Immigrants? Democrats OpponentsSupporters IndependentsRepublicans

18 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 18 With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more? OPPONENTS say that with millions of Americans out of work, now is not the time to increase immigration and make it easier for illegal immigrants to stay here. We need to take care of Americans first before we reward those who have broken our laws with amnesty. SUPPORTERS say this plan cracks down on illegal hiring by requiring employers to verify workers’ legal status and increasing penalties for those who hire illegal immigrants, so that American workers’ wages are not undermined. America is stronger when immigrants get legal and pay taxes. Debating Immigration Reform: Americans Out Of Work OpponentsSupporters Whites Af-Am.31% 60% 61%

19 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 19 After Debate, Support For Immigration Reform Remains Strong Approve 77% Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan 14% Disapprove Initial Support Strongly 38% Strongly 6% Approve 80% 14% Disapprove Support After Debate Strongly 39% Strongly 6%

20 Public Support for Immigration Reform – January 2013 – Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 20 The Bottom Line For Immigration Reform ► Importantly, an opportunity to earn citizenship is on the table, and can achieve bipartisan support as part of a comprehensive plan to fix the immigration system. ► However, it is important to remember that the primary drivers of support for reform are Americans’ desire to secure the border, prevent employers from hiring illegal immigrants, and ensure that immigrants become legal taxpayers. ► Addressing concerns like taxes and border security helps create the foundation for a plan that many voters see as “accountable.” This is particularly important to Republicans and independents. ► Americans express a desire to resolve the immigration issue once and for all. This is not a debate they want to revisit.

21 Immigration Reform: The Voters’ Outlook Key findings from nationwide telephone survey among 1, voters conducted January 7 – 10, 2013 HART RESEARCH ASSOTESCIA


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