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22nd World LP Gas Forum in Rio « Energising the future » World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October 2009 1 « Financial Crises in 2008: Impacts on the LP Gas.

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Presentation on theme: "22nd World LP Gas Forum in Rio « Energising the future » World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October 2009 1 « Financial Crises in 2008: Impacts on the LP Gas."— Presentation transcript:

1 22nd World LP Gas Forum in Rio « Energising the future » World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October « Financial Crises in 2008: Impacts on the LP Gas Business » Ernst Brandstaetter General Manager SHV Gas Supply & Risk Management, Paris

2 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October SHV Business Structure SHV Gas (LPG) SHV Gas (LPG) SHV NPM Capital (Private Equity) NPM Capital (Private Equity) Dyas (E&P of Oil & Gas) Dyas (E&P of Oil & Gas) Mammoet (Heavy lifting And transport) Mammoet (Heavy lifting And transport) Makro (Food & Non Food Consume r Articles) Makro (Food & Non Food Consume r Articles) TCEC (Renewable Energy) TCEC (Renewable Energy) ERIKS (mechanical engineering components) ERIKS (mechanical engineering components)

3 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October SHV Gas : Presence in the World ChinaPhilippines India Brasi l Europe South America North America Asia Australia Africa Net Sales EUR: ~ 5,5 Billion~ 5,9 Billion~ 6,1 Billion Volumes: mt mt mt No. of Employees: ,700 No of Countries: Pakistan

4 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October Content Prediction Reality Consequences Reflection

5 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October INTERESTING STATEMENTS… I do not anticipate any serious problems among the large internationally active banks. 28 February 2008 Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the board of governors of the United States Federal Reserve I do believe that the Economy is growing. 15 July 2008 In today’s regulatory environment it is virtually impossible to violate rules.

6 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October September 2001 REFLECTION: Long Term Crude Development

7 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October April: Iran-US relations deteriorate March: Falling Russian oil supply – fist y/y declines for over 10 years June: Rising Chinese, ME and Indian demand January: Disruption in Nigeria and North Sea July: Iran-Us relation turn of the worse « We project healthy growth in global GDP (+4.9%) and oil demand (+1.4 mb/d or 1.7%) in Demand growth will be led by China and the Middle East. » Société Générale,19 November 2007 «The possibility of $150- $200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months (…) » Goldman Sachs, official report 5 May REALITY: C3 CIF ARA & FEI

8 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October REALITY: C3 CIF ARA & FEI September: Lehman Brothers Collapse. August: Fannie & Freddi Mac collaps/ financial troubles. October: Evidence of further US oil demand deterioration and slowdown in China. November: Drastic reduction to GDP forecast MARKET CRASH

9 Trading counterparts disappeared or refocussed approach Number of derivative desks cut Trading markets close to stand still Q4 MTM exposure reached record highs. Financing of risk is creating cash flow problem Price volatility becomes exceptional Stock markets influence commodities Unhedged storage positions cause record losses World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October « Volatility increased to a point we had never seen except in a period of war I’m grateful to all the client who, despite all this turbulence, continued to deal with us. » Marc Mourre, Morgan Stanley – February 2009 “ A large number of senior London-based equities traders at Morgan Stanley are leaving the firm, or facing redeployment, as the bank presses forward with its plans to cut a further 10% of staff in the institutional securities division.” Renée Schultes, December 2008 Immediate consequences on the Derivative Markets

10 Financial turmoil reduces demand (industrial/commercial/domestic segment) Petchem buyers decrease presence on the market Triple A rated customers turn to prepayment customers Long markets and collapsed crude prices delay/even stop new productions Shipping markets crash to record lows “During the past two quarters, we have seen dramatic softening in demand for our products and unprecedented volatility in raw materials costs.” Volker Trautz, LyondellBasel’s Chief Executive World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October BASF has announced plans to axe 3700 jobs and left the future of 23 production sites in doubt following its acquisition of Swiss firm Ciba in April this year. July 2009 LyondellBasel is owned by New York- based industrial group Access Industries, but the filing in the Southern district of NY in Manhattan applies to Lyondell Chemical Co., its U.S. arm. The court filing lists assets of $27.1 billion and liabilities of $19.3 billion. Immediate consequences on the Physical Markets ConocoPhillips, lays off 4 % of its GLOBAL workforce and scales back capital spending this year to $12.5bn, from $15.3bn in Morgan Stanley LUKOIL said it would cut its planned capital expenditure in 2009 to $9.7 billion, from an earlier forecast of $11.2 billion, due to unfavorable market conditions. Morgan Stanley

11 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October January February March April May June July August September October November December 1st Quarter2nd Quarter3rd Quarter4th Quarter Immediate consequences on the Physical Markets

12 Financial turmoil reduces demand (industrial/commercial/domestic segment) Petchem buyers decrease presence on the market Triple A rated customers turn to prepayment customers Long markets and collapsed crude prices delay/even stop new productions Shipping markets crashed to record lows and will not recover soon FOB posted price contracts create massive losses World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October Immediate consequences on the Physical Markets

13 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October CP FEI Loss Shipping Total loss = 240 $/tons $ per cargo C3 CP & C3 FEI $/Mt – October 2008

14 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October GOOD NEWS !! Producers start to connect with the final customers cutting intermediaries Shipping costs are at record low levels Product prices return to the level of year 2002

15 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October Prices return to the level of year 2002

16 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October Alzheimer Syndrom in Commodities Trading BRENT Y08 Yield Basis Jan 08 BRENT Y09 Yield Basis Jan 09

17 World LPGAS Forum: 7th – 9th October


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