1. Indonesia’s current account challenge
Part 2 – Is there a current account problem?
Petar Vujanovic
Head of Indonesia Desk OECD, Economic Department

2. Current Account

3. Current account in OECD and selected emerging economies
A big deterioration in Indonesia’s current account (% of GDP)

4. Current account in selected emerging economies
Rapid deterioration in current account began in mid-2011

5. Exchange rate
Depreciation of over 35% since beginning of 2012.

6. Current account components (USD)
Higher oil deficit and lower non-oil & gas goods surplus

7. Current account components (USD)
Goods imports stalled and big fall in goods exports (USD) since beginning of 2012.

8. Trade

9. Oil and gas – USD and Rupiah
Denomination of trade (USD or rupiah) makes a difference.

10. Oil – net exports and price
Oil price explains a big part of the growing oil deficit

11. Gas – net exports and price
Gas price explains little of the (relatively modest) decline in gas exports (large trade surplus)

12. Trade – Non oil and gas goods exports
Both manufactures and mineral commodity exports have declined

13. Trade – Manufactured exports
Manufactured exports are quite diversified

14. Trade – Exports - Manufactures
Percent reduction in value from Q peak (% share)
Palm oils
Base metal products
Processed rubber products
-40% (18%)
-46% (10%)
-43% (12%)

15. Palm oil prices
Palm oil prices have fallen over 30% since Q1 2011

16. Trade – Exports – Mining and other
~30% of all goods exports
Percent reduction in value from ~Q peak (% share)
Coal
Crude oil
Natural gas
-29% (39%)
-10% (24%)
-28% (26%)

17. Trade – metal prices (IMF)
Metal prices have fallen over 30% since Q1 2011

18. Trade – thermal coal prices (IMF)
Coal prices have fallen by around 30% since Q1 2011

19. Terms of trade
…. In short – Indonesia has suffered a large decline in its terms of trade – and accelerated since beginning of Similar to other commodity-based economies, like Chile and Australia.

20. Trade – Goods and Service Imports (USD and local currency)
Value of imports in local currency has been driven by depreciation. Volumes have been flat in recent quarters.

21. Trade – Goods and Service Imports (USD)
Raw materials are the largest component

22. Trade – Raw material imports (USD)
Processed industrial supplies are the largest component

23. Trade – Monthly trade balance
The turn around in the trade balance continued in November.

24. Capital and Financial Account

25. National savings and investment
Gross national savings and investment are now close to being equal

26. Capital account components
Portfolio flows have been volatile; reserves accumulation has been important.

27. Reserves assets and the exchange rate
Policy of rapid reserve accumulation fro 2008 while the rupiah strengthened helped to hold down the current account deficit.

28. Conclusion
There has been a big deterioration in the current account since the end of
This has contributed, at least in part, to a large depreciation in the Rupiah.
Decline in goods balance (non-oil and gas, and oil).
Commodity prices account for a large part of this – including crude oil, palm oil, coal, and many metals – end of the “super-cycle”.
A terms of trade shock – like other commodity exporters.
Imports of processed industrial supplies are a large component but flat (USD and volume) growth.
Savings excess over investment has disappeared.
Reserve asset transactions important in explaining capital account.
FDI flows have increased. Portfolio flows have been volatile.