1. European Runway Safety Survey
P. Wilson
EUROCONTROL

2. The Problem of Runway Incursions in Europe

3. EUROCONTROL
The main objectives of EUROCONTROL are to harmonise and integrate
Air Navigation Services in Europe, aiming at the creation of a European Air Traffic Management System,
to achieve the safe, orderly, expeditious and
economic flow of air traffic throughout Europe.

4. Traffic Growth
Traffic : increased threefold over last 25 years.
Baseline forecasts : steady growth of 4% per annum.
Traffic demand : expected to double over next 20 years.
1974
2000
2000
2020
What are the characteristics of Air Traffic within European airspace
Traffic is predominantly within Europe : 88% (i.e. only 12% is transcontinental).
Core area shows intense activity : 70 % flies over 10 % of the airspace.
High percentage of short-haul flights : 60 % fly less than 400 NM (average flight distance is 472 NM).
High ratio of climbing / descending traffic : 65 % of flight time below FL 300, thus making more complex the provision of ATC.
What do the statistics say ?
Looking back for an instant on the past, in grey on the histogram in the top right cormer of the slide, traffic figures speak for themselves : actual traffic has been multiplied by 3 over the last 25 years. In concrete terms that means that there were circumstances during 2000 with more than 28,000 flights a day (the peak days for 1997 had to cope with ).
EUROCONTROL initiatives over the last years have had notable effects in curbing the level of delay :
Over the ten years ( ) of the harmonisation and integration programme for European ATC, air traffic has increased significantly (+50%). The fact that the European ATM System has accomodated this increase while generally containing delays, shows that it has increased its overall capacity.
Will the trend continue like this in future ? The Agency forecast service indicates that the traffic growth rate for a baseline scenario will decrease from +5.8% in 2000 to +3.0% in 2015.
With a traffic demand of more than flights on busy days, in 1997, 1% of traffic increase was potentially generating an increase in delay of 5% to 6%. Despite increasingly complex traffic situations (traffic demand of flights, like during busy days of last year), a 1% traffic increase generates now a potential for 4.7% increase in delay (the increase reached 8% in 1998). This demonstrates the general improvement trend, though recognising that delay reductions are more and more difficult to achieve with traffic increase.
Traffic demand is expected to almost double over the next 20 years. Consequently the traffic density met in the core area today will be found almost throughout Europe in future.
Note : Technical explanation on the 2000 and 2020 charts
The two charts are based on traffic (CRCO source) between city pairs and built as if flights were navigating along great circle routes (i.e. not the ARN). The charts are the aggregation of volumes of airspace having a basis of around 40 square Nautical Miles (6’ by 10’). Each red elementary volume depicts a mean daily traffic demand of more than 150 flights, more than 100 for the yellow and more than 50 for the green.
DIVISION DED 4 - 4/11/97

5. ECAC States (38) Albania Armenia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Moldova
Monaco
The Netherlands
The former Yugoslav -Republic of Macedonia
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom

6. Investigated Runway Incursions
Data collected through:
MANDATORY REPORTING SCHEME
and
INTERVIEWS of 12 European Airports

7. Risk of Runway Incursions
100
Number Of Runway Incursions Per 1,000,000 Operations 10 1
Rate of Runway Incursions in 9 different European airports

8. Severity distribution of reported Runway Incursions
CATEGORY A
CATEGORY D
Little or no Potential
Significant Potential 5%
31%
30%
Good Potential
CATEGORY B
34%
Fair Potential
CATEGORY C
Source: Mandatory Reporting Scheme

9. Occurrence Types Related to Runway Operations
Pilot Deviations
Operational Errors
44%
30%
26%
Vehicle/Pedestrian Deviations
Source: Mandatory Reporting Scheme

10. Occurrence Types Related to Runway Operations
60%
3 Airports feedback
50%
Mandatory Scheme
40%
30%
20%
10% 0%
Pilot Deviations
Operational Errors
Vehicle/Pedestrian
Deviations

11. The Perception of Runway Incursions Risk

12. Pilots and ATCO perceptions
Outcomes of the Questionnaire...

13. Risk Perception (I)
Within the last year, do you think the number of Runway Incursion has...

14. Risk Perception (II)
How would you rank “Runway Incursion” among other runway safety concerns ...

15. What in your opinion was a contributing cause ? (I)
Pilots
ATCOs

16. What in your opinion was a contributing cause ? (II)
Pilots
ATCOs

17. To summarise ...
AVAILABILITY of data: few available data at the time of the survey (no reporting scheme or reluctance to share information?)
Approach for ANALYSIS: difficult to combine data (no harmonised approach)
Underlying CAUSAL FACTORS: difficult to understand why Runway Incursion occurs

18. Task Force to develop recommendations
GASR - EUROCONTROL - ICAO - JAA - IATA -
IFATCA - IFALPA - ACI - IAOPA - AEA - ERA - ECA
Not locked into cycle of continuous data collection
Time scales short
short term End Jan 2003
medium term - Jan 2004
long term Jan 2005
Majority of recommendations complete by Jan 2003

19. RECOMMENDATIONS GENERAL AREAS 1 Awareness 2 Data Collection
3 Communications
4 Procedures and working methods (PILOT/ATC/Driver
5 Annex 14
6 Airport Aeronautical Information
7 New Technologies
8 Human Factors
9 Regulatory

20. 1 Awareness Establish a local joint team (ATC/Aircrew/Airport)
Achieve Standardisation through ICAO Provisions
Establish a Runway Safety Programme
General Awareness campaign by Task Force
Dedicated local awareness campaigns
Implement a Safety Management System (SMS)
Introduce Runway Safety into SMS to identify risks & mitigation
Promotion of Recommendations

21. 2 Data Collection and Lesson learning
Improve data collection - standard reporting/investigation
Standard agreed definitions
All data to be collected in data base for trend analysis
Non punitive reporting systems
Local Runway Safety Survey to be conducted (as per SMS) to identify hazards
Disseminate disidentified details of incidents/occurrence's both European wide/locally

22. 3 Communications Confirm use of standard ICAO phraseology
Explicit runway crossing clearances
Read back
Runway crossing on single frequency
Clarify rules associated with conditional clearance
R/T, language and phraseology proficiency
All communications associated with runway in English
Driver training programmes introduced

23. 4 Procedures and Working Methods
Pilot procedures - best practice
Standard taxi routes - reduce workload near runway
Use of line up and wait
Inspection opposite direction
Use of blocker strips
Use of Capacity Enhancing Procedures
Access of vehicles to manoeuvring area
Cross runways at 90° when possible

24. 5 Annex 14
Confirm implementation of Annex 14 provisions - markings/signage/lighting etc.
Identify needs to enhance ground markings
Implementation of Standard ICAO taxiway naming conventions

25. 6 Provision of Airport Information
Management Process for charts/publications for accuracy
Establish feedback mechanism with users to detect errors
Improve ergonomics of maps
AIS standardisation

26. 7 New Technologies
Consider new technologies as prevention or safety net
Moving ways/graphical displays in cockpits - situational awareness
Assessment of value of automated conflict detection systems

27. 8 Human Factors
Understand HF issues contributing to Runway Safety Events
TRM /CRM
Use of multiple capacity enhancing procedures.

28. 9 Regulatory Licensing of Aerodromes - degree of compliance
Assessment of SMS systems

29. Occurrences Be200 Expect Crossing Clearance B747 Conditional/read back
HS121 Cross runway in use (23)
B747 Line Up

30. Summary All States cultures/language/ATM Systems
Recommendations cover most areas
Result of Joint action - First in Europe
European action could stop the majority of events leading to Runway Incursion - however we are aware that to remove potential hazards completely will be very difficult