3 EUROCONTROLThe main objectives of EUROCONTROL are to harmonise and integrateAir Navigation Services in Europe, aiming at the creation of a European Air Traffic Management System,to achieve the safe, orderly, expeditious andeconomic flow of air traffic throughout Europe.
4 Traffic GrowthTraffic : increased threefold over last 25 years.Baseline forecasts : steady growth of 4% per annum.Traffic demand : expected to double over next 20 years.1974200020002020What are the characteristics of Air Traffic within European airspaceTraffic is predominantly within Europe : 88% (i.e. only 12% is transcontinental).Core area shows intense activity : 70 % flies over 10 % of the airspace.High percentage of short-haul flights : 60 % fly less than 400 NM (average flight distance is 472 NM).High ratio of climbing / descending traffic : 65 % of flight time below FL 300, thus making more complex the provision of ATC.What do the statistics say ?Looking back for an instant on the past, in grey on the histogram in the top right cormer of the slide, traffic figures speak for themselves : actual traffic has been multiplied by 3 over the last 25 years. In concrete terms that means that there were circumstances during 2000 with more than 28,000 flights a day (the peak days for 1997 had to cope with ).EUROCONTROL initiatives over the last years have had notable effects in curbing the level of delay :Over the ten years ( ) of the harmonisation and integration programme for European ATC, air traffic has increased significantly (+50%). The fact that the European ATM System has accomodated this increase while generally containing delays, shows that it has increased its overall capacity.Will the trend continue like this in future ? The Agency forecast service indicates that the traffic growth rate for a baseline scenario will decrease from +5.8% in 2000 to +3.0% in 2015.With a traffic demand of more than flights on busy days, in 1997, 1% of traffic increase was potentially generating an increase in delay of 5% to 6%. Despite increasingly complex traffic situations (traffic demand of flights, like during busy days of last year), a 1% traffic increase generates now a potential for 4.7% increase in delay (the increase reached 8% in 1998). This demonstrates the general improvement trend, though recognising that delay reductions are more and more difficult to achieve with traffic increase.Traffic demand is expected to almost double over the next 20 years. Consequently the traffic density met in the core area today will be found almost throughout Europe in future.Note : Technical explanation on the 2000 and 2020 chartsThe two charts are based on traffic (CRCO source) between city pairs and built as if flights were navigating along great circle routes (i.e. not the ARN). The charts are the aggregation of volumes of airspace having a basis of around 40 square Nautical Miles (6’ by 10’). Each red elementary volume depicts a mean daily traffic demand of more than 150 flights, more than 100 for the yellow and more than 50 for the green.DIVISION DED 4 - 4/11/97
5 ECAC States (38) Albania Armenia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia CyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoThe NetherlandsThe former Yugoslav -Republic of MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUkraineUnited Kingdom
6 Investigated Runway Incursions Data collected through:MANDATORY REPORTING SCHEMEandINTERVIEWS of 12 European Airports
7 Risk of Runway Incursions 100Number Of Runway Incursions Per 1,000,000 Operations101Rate of Runway Incursions in 9 different European airports
8 Severity distribution of reported Runway Incursions CATEGORY ACATEGORY DLittle or no PotentialSignificant Potential5%31%30%Good PotentialCATEGORY B34%Fair PotentialCATEGORY CSource: Mandatory Reporting Scheme
9 Occurrence Types Related to Runway Operations Pilot DeviationsOperational Errors44%30%26%Vehicle/Pedestrian DeviationsSource: Mandatory Reporting Scheme
10 Occurrence Types Related to Runway Operations 60%3 Airports feedback50%Mandatory Scheme40%30%20%10%0%Pilot DeviationsOperational ErrorsVehicle/PedestrianDeviations
12 Pilots and ATCO perceptions Outcomes of the Questionnaire...
13 Risk Perception (I)Within the last year, do you think the number of Runway Incursion has...
14 Risk Perception (II)How would you rank “Runway Incursion” among other runway safety concerns ...
15 What in your opinion was a contributing cause ? (I) PilotsATCOs
16 What in your opinion was a contributing cause ? (II) PilotsATCOs
17 To summarise ...AVAILABILITY of data: few available data at the time of the survey (no reporting scheme or reluctance to share information?)Approach for ANALYSIS: difficult to combine data (no harmonised approach)Underlying CAUSAL FACTORS: difficult to understand why Runway Incursion occurs
18 Task Force to develop recommendations GASR - EUROCONTROL - ICAO - JAA - IATA -IFATCA - IFALPA - ACI - IAOPA - AEA - ERA - ECANot locked into cycle of continuous data collectionTime scales shortshort term End Jan 2003medium term - Jan 2004long term Jan 2005Majority of recommendations complete by Jan 2003
19 RECOMMENDATIONS GENERAL AREAS 1 Awareness 2 Data Collection 3 Communications4 Procedures and working methods (PILOT/ATC/Driver5 Annex 146 Airport Aeronautical Information7 New Technologies8 Human Factors9 Regulatory
20 1 Awareness Establish a local joint team (ATC/Aircrew/Airport) Achieve Standardisation through ICAO ProvisionsEstablish a Runway Safety ProgrammeGeneral Awareness campaign by Task ForceDedicated local awareness campaignsImplement a Safety Management System (SMS)Introduce Runway Safety into SMS to identify risks & mitigationPromotion of Recommendations
21 2 Data Collection and Lesson learning Improve data collection - standard reporting/investigationStandard agreed definitionsAll data to be collected in data base for trend analysisNon punitive reporting systemsLocal Runway Safety Survey to be conducted (as per SMS) to identify hazardsDisseminate disidentified details of incidents/occurrence's both European wide/locally
22 3 Communications Confirm use of standard ICAO phraseology Explicit runway crossing clearancesRead backRunway crossing on single frequencyClarify rules associated with conditional clearanceR/T, language and phraseology proficiencyAll communications associated with runway in EnglishDriver training programmes introduced
23 4 Procedures and Working Methods Pilot procedures - best practiceStandard taxi routes - reduce workload near runwayUse of line up and waitInspection opposite directionUse of blocker stripsUse of Capacity Enhancing ProceduresAccess of vehicles to manoeuvring areaCross runways at 90° when possible
24 5 Annex 14Confirm implementation of Annex 14 provisions - markings/signage/lighting etc.Identify needs to enhance ground markingsImplementation of Standard ICAO taxiway naming conventions
25 6 Provision of Airport Information Management Process for charts/publications for accuracyEstablish feedback mechanism with users to detect errorsImprove ergonomics of mapsAIS standardisation
26 7 New TechnologiesConsider new technologies as prevention or safety netMoving ways/graphical displays in cockpits - situational awarenessAssessment of value of automated conflict detection systems
27 8 Human FactorsUnderstand HF issues contributing to Runway Safety EventsTRM /CRMUse of multiple capacity enhancing procedures.
28 9 Regulatory Licensing of Aerodromes - degree of compliance Assessment of SMS systems
29 Occurrences Be200 Expect Crossing Clearance B747 Conditional/read back HS121 Cross runway in use (23)B747 Line Up
30 Summary All States cultures/language/ATM Systems Recommendations cover most areasResult of Joint action - First in EuropeEuropean action could stop the majority of events leading to Runway Incursion - however we are aware that to remove potential hazards completely will be very difficult