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Phenology Assessment: survey Leader: Janis Dickinson Survey the community on 100 most important questions in phenology – Seek perspectives from: AGU, NPS,

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Presentation on theme: "Phenology Assessment: survey Leader: Janis Dickinson Survey the community on 100 most important questions in phenology – Seek perspectives from: AGU, NPS,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Phenology Assessment: survey Leader: Janis Dickinson Survey the community on 100 most important questions in phenology – Seek perspectives from: AGU, NPS, land managers, ESA, BSA Categorize questions by ecological level, taxon, scale Take the survey to get a flavor of its potential 8dtjTqjqF0ixA_3d_3d

2 Phenology Assessment: data discovery Provide descriptions of available data sets for plants and animals – insect data: population and community level, snapshot and longer-term (state agencies, individual researchers) – pollinator phenology – insect pest phenology (Alexander Leibhold [; Penn State]: pine beetles, cicadas, mayfly, stonefly; Barbara Peckarsky [Madison, WI]) – honey yield – Plant data: First priority: long-term data (particularly for communities or multiple species); Second priority: short-term or snap-shot (community or population) – herbarium data: identify particularly well-represented data – National Park Service data mining – Forest inventory and analysis program (FIA) – Evaluation of Bill Michener’s Ecological Metadata resource: which data sets are tagged for phenology (Janis Dickinson wrote to Mark Stromberg) – Avian Knowledge Network – Climatic variables at different spatial scales Map their geographic distributions Provide standardized metadata parameters: frequency of data collection, duration of collection, number of species or populations, parameters – Location (GPS), elevation; caveat: this will be difficult with wide-ranging taxa – Type of habitat (vegetation type) – Duration – Contact – Phenophases – Access – Pointer if on line – Metadata file upload – Taxon/Taxa – Format – Number of records

3 Review of evidence for phenological change in U.S. For each study, would want to report/compile, for wild plants and animals – Location, geographic range – Start and end date of observations – Taxa/species – Phenophases studied – Mean and variance in phenological event – Change over time – Relationship of phenological transitions or events to climatic variables – Status/location of data (sought from investigators) Summarize questions of general interest that should be pursued Suggest for future research: investigators should seek and analyze the following data sets to identify temporal patterns: – Agricultural disease outbreaks – Mammalian diseases: Hanta virus, Lyme disease, avian flue, West Nile virus – Game records – Annual crops – Honey yield – Tree crops – Wild animals – Wild plants – Meta-analysis Phenology Assessment: review paper

4 Primary Goal: Review of evidence for phenological change in U.S.; Restrict studies to those of > 15 years duration Secondary Goal: Identify most important and useful parameters with which to detect phenological change for each taxon or guild Wild plant communities (Isaac Park and Theresa Crimmins) Agricultural disease (Karen Garrett, KSU; emerald ash borer; pine beetle) Forest Inventory and Analysis: Angie Evenden: check for Forest Tree disease/pests (also State departments, IPM) Forest trees/common gardens: Jonathan Friedman (National Forest Service) Pollinators (Laura Berkel, David Inouye, Wayne Esias; Logan, Utah, Tucson, AZ); check out participants in North American Pollinator Protection Campaign (NAPPC) meeting in two weeks Insects (herbivorous, predatory: Laura Berkel: she’s working on David Robertson’s1800’s data set from Illinois; read Waser’s paper in Ecology Letters) Butterflies (Orley “Chip” Taylor, Monarch Watch; Art Shapiro); check out participants in NAPPC Soil Micro-Organisms (Josh Schimel, UCSB) Insect Pests: contact Joe Russo -- USDA Herps: Partners in Amphibian and Reptile Conservation (Priya Nanjaba; Walt Sadinsky) Infectious diseases: plant pathogen (Steve Travers) Vector-borne diseases: avian flu, hanta virus, West Nile, Lyme disease (Ostfield) Mammals, hibernation, migration, disease: Dan Blumstein, Colorado State guy Mammals, migration Mammal, disease Bird disease Bat disease (Tom Koons) Bird communities or taxa: Terry Rich and Janis Dickinson migration, lay date, clutch number, will find bird disease contact Game fish, birds and mammals (Journal of Wildlife Management) Freshwater (Monika Winder; Scott Cooper) Marine Fish (Juan Francis, UMass Amherst) Marine Fish (Lisa Crozier, NOAA) Algal Blooms/Kelp (Dave Siegel, UCSB) Mazer and Miller- Rushing will divide and conquer, contacting volunteer and other prospective collaborators

5 Phenology Assessment: questions to be considered by each summarizer What are most useful or sensitive phenological signals of climate change over time? Mean dates vs. number of events (clutch numbers, number of generations) vs. duration of events? What questions are most relevant to populations vs. guilds vs. ecosystems? What are questions related to interactions, synchrony, mismatching? Implications for phenological changes for demography and community structure (relative abundances of taxa) What are other open, burning questions?

6 IPCs of economic importance: health Time of appearance and maximum dN/dt of climate-dependent diseases (flu, Hanta virus) Phenology (time of appearance and maximum dN/dt) of food sources of disease vectors: Lyme disease, hanta virus, avian flu, West Nile Phenology of allergens (time of appearance and maximum dN/dt): ragweed, grass, cereal, and tree pollen Phenology of mosquito appearance and abundance Products: 1) Show outbreak curves of any pollen type or disease for which data are available (CDC, State Health Departments, mosquito abatement programs) 2) Relate attributes of curves available for a given location (onset, dN/dt, length) to time or to climate Earlier notes from Botany Group:

7 IPCs of economic importance: ecotourism Leaf color change: Date of peak leaf color Date of first flower and maximum rate of increase of flower abundances: crocuses, poppies, California mustards, cherry blossoms Phenology of food sources of water fowl and other game species Historical dates of Wildflower festivals Historical dates of Harvest festivals Historical dates of Wine grape harvests Prospective Products: 1) Consult with USDA to determine whether we can relate harvest parameters (timing and yield) to climate 2) Information from Ducks Unlimited 3) Satellite images can detect hillsides of poppies, mustards, Clarkia (farewell- to-spring): Orange-up! Yellow-up! Purple-up! Earlier notes from Botany Group:

8 IPCs of economic importance: agriculture Onset and length of growing season for crops, particularly those with a chill requirement Phenology of crop-borne weeds, especially those that may participate in gene transfer Phenology of crop diseases Phenology of wild plants species that support crop pollinators Phenology of pollination (assessed as pollen deposition on stigmas) Timing of bee-keeper schedule and distribution for almonds Products 1) Map changes in Hardiness zones (Arbor Day Foundation) and identify well- known or keystone species whose distributions are expected to change (e.g., NPN callibration species) 2) Map data on crop disease outbreaks (e.g., soybean rust, tomato blight in northeast) and compare curves (onset, dN/dt, duration of outbreak) over time. 3) List wild pollinators that serve agricultural crops and map their distributions 4) Wishlist: Map locations where pests may be on the cusp of shifting from uni- to multi-voltine Earlier notes from Botany Group:

9 How has phenological progression of plant populations and/or species changed over time? Products: Use published and/or currently available data to review evidence of advancement of flowering times across the U.S. 1) Provide maps that identify sites where first flower/pollen, peak flower, and/or flowering duration data have been collected at different time scales: Snapshot (hundreds of individual population-level studies; e.g. dissertations and peer- reviewed publications in Ecology, AJB, IJPS, CJB) Common garden (Clausen, Keck & Hiesey) Common gardens for forest trees & forage grasses (USDA research stations) Long-term (Inouye [CO:1973-2009], Leopold [WI: 1936-], Thoreau-Miller-Rushing [MA], Cook [Mohonk,NY: 1920’s to present], Stevens [ND], Crimmins [AZ], Robertson [Chicago], Mikesell [OH: 1883-1912], Gates [KS: 1926-1955]) 2) Evaluate herbarium specimens: Use on-line herbarium catalogues to identify species that are particularly well-represented across herbaria (e.g., state flowers?) Longterm goal: Use either type of data to compare temporal changes at different latitudes or elevations, and to identify potentially abrupt changes IPCs of ecological importance: phenological change Earlier notes from Botany Group:

10 IPCs of ecological importance: timing, duration, and sustainability of mutualisms Phenological matching involving plant-animal relationships: predator- prey, plant-pollinator, host-parasite Phenology of pollen deposition (proxy for pollination effectiveness and pollinator visitation) Products: 1) Review literature to provide list of species pairs (or small groups of interacting species) that should be monitored to track the maintenance of inter-dependent species (plants/pollinators) 2) Projecting range shifts of mutualistic partners. Example: a) Map changes in cumulative chilling hours over time b) Map change in suitable habitat of a given plant species over time c) Map change of range of pollinator d) Identify locations where plants may lose their pollinators Earlier notes from Botany Group:

11 IPCs of ecological importance: occurrences and durations of antagonisms Is climate change and the length of the growing season increasing the vulnerabilty to (or timing or spread of) disease? Products: 1) Review literature to provide list and map of species pairs or groups that should be monitored to track the spread of wild plant diseases or parasites. Examples: mountain pine beetles; dutch elm disease; emerald ash borer. 2) Projecting range shifts of antagonists. Example: a) Map changes in cumulative chilling hours over time b) Map change in suitable habitat of a given plant species over time c) Map change of range of the plant’s parasite or predator d) Identify locations where prey may become free of predator Phenological Issue: Link timing of antagonist’s appearance to its abundance or geographic range. Earlier notes from Botany Group:

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