1. The neglected transformation of socio‐technical systems: discontinuation governance Stefan Kuhlmann, Peter Stegmaier, Vincent R. Visser Dept of Science, Technology, & Policy Studies (STePS), University of Twente Eu-SPRI Conference “Transformative Governance”, Karlsruhe, 12-13 June 2012

2. PROJECT PROPOSAL ORA (Open Research Area for the Social Sciences 2011 DFG, NWO, ESRC, ANR)—DiscGo applicants: S Kuhlmann, P Stegmaier University of Twente, Enschede, NL, Dept. of Science, Technology, and Policy Studies (STePS) J Weyer, M Mölders TU Dortmund, Technology Studies Group (TSG) A Stirling, F Geels University of Sussex, Science and Technology Policy Research (SPRU) PB Joly, M Barbier, F Dedieu INRA and Université Paris Est, Unit 1326 SenS IFRIS 2 Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

3. PROJECT IDEA 3 Governance of the abandonment of socio-technical systems: fading out, termination, deconstruction Governance of socio-technical systems: a matter of progress & innovation Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

4. PROJECT FOCUS Focus: ‘discontinuation’ as purposeful governance action sui generis In contrast to ‘discontinuity’ as market phenomenon (Utterback 2003) and ‘destabilisation’ as a regime transition phenomenon (Turnheim & Geels 2012) 4 Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

5. SHOCKS & NICHES 5 (Adapted from Geels/Schot, 2007: 410, emphasis added) Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

6. PRELIMINARY HEURISTIC 6 ExitingTypes of termination Process dynamics Types of dynamics Policy instruments Types of instruments ScopeTypes of range and application LegitimationTypes of regulation and justification Instead of starting from hypotheses (useful only in well-researched areas), we build search heuristic and conceptualisation of the governance problems (questions and theory) on the grounds of investigated phenomena themselves. Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

7. METHODS 7 Four case studies Analysis of governance forms and strategies, path analysis, typology building Network analysis (qualitative) on the basis of discourse analysis, computer simulation & business games Expert interviews, document analysis Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

8. FOUR CASES Phase-out of the incandescent light bulb technology through the EU regulation 244/2009, based on the Eco-Design of Energy-Using Products Directive 2009/125/EC, started in the EU in 2009 Commitments to phase out nuclear power from its current major role in the energy sectors of several countries worldwide, with others ceasing earlier-planned nuclear expansion; discontinuation efforts have been accelerating since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, Spring 2011 Banning of synthetic pesticide DDT for agricultural use worldwide under the Stockholm Convention in 2004 Replacement of fossil fuel combustion technology by (battery) electric engine technology, a trend that has been speeding up since the global economic recession in the late 2000s. 8 Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

9. 9 Build no nuclear power plants at all Exit nuclear energy technology Stop construction Replace only single out-dated plants Nuclear energy Combustion engine cars banned from cities Road pricing, special permits for electric vehicles Promotion of research on electric vehicles Purchase subsidies of electric vehicles Combustion car engines From single countries to worldwide ban With forward and backward decisions Differentiating agricultural use & vector control Home and foreign markets ban DDT Some pioneers made solo attempts Transnationally coordinated efforts later Stop to gen.-purp., non-direct., grad. to lower wattages Official deadlines vs. private usage Light bulb EXPLORATION OF PATTERNS Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

10. PRELIMINARY FINDINGS 10 Guiding problems Operationalisation problems Incandescent light bulb NL Nuclear energy D DDT NLCombustion car engine D Exiting Abandonmentxx Construction stopxx Partial replacement x Aftercare x Process dynamics Incremental stepsxxxx Fw./bw. decisions xxx Pioneering (x)x- (D), x (F) Transnat. coordinationx xx Policy instruments Banx x Pricing, permits - (D), (x UK) Research xx Purchase subsidies - (D), x (F) Alternative offersxxxx Scope Usage(x)xxx Home/foreign markets xxx Official/priv. endingx x Nat./supranat. gov. level x Legitimation Specific regulationsxxx Justification???? Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

11. 11 CASE: Disc. of ILB in EU Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

12. 12 CASE: Disc. of ILB in EU (II) Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation Eco-design framework by EC (2005/32/EC) Push for policy/ban on ILB => ‘Lighting’ as product group for eco-design EUP4light project Draft eco-design regulation by EC => adopted by EP and Consultation Forum (2009/244/EC)

13. 13 CASE: Disc. of ILB in EU (III) Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation Focus of research: Get a better understanding of purposeful discontinuation governance along the example of the ILB (with some side glances at lighting innovation) Research question: Which discontinuation issues are identified by the relevant governance actors over time and which discontinuation trade-offs are constituted?

14. 14 CASE: Disc. of ILB in EU (IV) Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation

15. 15 CASE: Disc. of ILB in EU (V) Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation A. Constitution/design of discontinuation policy DIMENSIONS OF REGULATION Ban vs. Gradual replacement Focus on energy efficiency vs. other requirements Speed of discontinuation Strictness: room for exceptions vs. no exceptions Monitoring of regulation

16. 16 CASE: Disc. of ILB in EU (VI) Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation B. Barriers/trade-offs for discontinuation (governance) BARRIERS OF SYSTEM/INFRASTRUCTURE Retrofitting/luminaires Harmonic interference Dim installation BARRIERS OF ‘REPLACING’ TECHNOLOGY Use of materials and recycling Health issues Performance/quality issues (design aesthetics, quality of light, dim-option, start-up time, image issues) COSTS OF DISCONTINUATION Replacement costs vs life cycle costs

17. 17 CASE: Disc. of ILB in EU (VII) Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation BARRIERS CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR Hamstering ILBs Changes in use (rebound effects) NEED OF INFORMATION/EDUCATION Awareness raising for need of discontinuation Need of knowledge for replacement Need for new (eco) labelling Comparison of light output of new lamp types ISSUES FOR INDUSTRY (IN EU) Negative vs. Positive effects for employment Capacity for new production BURDENS OF EXISTING LEGISLATION National/supranational/international level

18. FIRST CONCLUSIONS No surprise: Discontinuation governance takes place in a highly complex context—technically as well as socially Discontinuation governance has to cope with resistance to dedicated, forceful change (institutional inertia; vested interests) 18 Kuhlmann/Stegmaier/Visser: Governance of Discontinuation