Presentation on theme: "ASIAN PACIFIC GOLF SUMMIT Future of Golf – Demographics and Megatrends in Recreation James Graham Prusa."— Presentation transcript:
ASIAN PACIFIC GOLF SUMMIT Future of Golf – Demographics and Megatrends in Recreation James Graham Prusa
“To see things in the seed, that is genius.” Lao Tzu, Chinese mystic philosopher
“JAPAN TAKES A BEATING” By MALCOLM FOSTER Associated Press Monday, February 1, 2010 JAPAN INC Sony, Toyota, JAL They all thought they were invincible Writes about arrogance, over confidence, the ‘group think’ that blocked advancement BUT is this a fair assessment? Were there other unspoken, underlying reasons?
Made in USA comeback to bring 2-3M jobs Consulting group predicts tipping point in China Updated: Sunday, 30 Oct 2011, 6:01 PM EDT Published : Friday, 28 Oct 2011, 5:54 PM EDT Christine Lee, 22News State House Correspondent BOSTON, Mass. (WWLP) - An analysis by a global consulting firm headquartered in Massachusetts finds that the U.S. could gain 2 to 3 million jobs as profitability overseas reaches a tipping point…
“As labor costs rise in China — along with steep fuel and transportation costs to ship merchandise back home — the idea of making goods in the U.S. starts to look better to American companies, a recent study by The Boston Consulting Group found. U.S. suppliers also are closing the gap in relative costs by operating more efficiently here.” The Boston Consulting Group
Made (again) in the USA: The return of American manufacturing By Nin-Hai Tseng, writer-reporter June 29, 2011: 10:36 AM ET “Lost in a sea of troubling economic data is one bright spot: America is once again competing for -- and winning -- factories and manufacturing operations.” “Companies like Illinois-based Caterpillar (CAT), the world's largest maker of excavators and bulldozers, is shifting some of its excavator production from abroad to Texas.”CAT “According to the report by Accenture, some 61% of manufacturing executives surveyed by the consultancy said they were considering more closely matching supply location with demand location by re-shoring manufacturing and supply.”
Russia s Population Declines 4.8% Since Collapse of Soviet Union November 08, 2010 Russia’s population may have declined 4.8 percent since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, according to the first national census in eight years. Shrinking Societies: The Other Population Crisis August 12, 2010 A Japanese woman's role in society is to give birth, and "all we can do is ask them to do their best per head," said Hakuo Yanagisawa, Japan's former health minister.... Bloomberg Businessweek
What is going on in the this global world? Demographic mega trends. 1970 Paul Erlich’s “The Population Bomb” UN: 44% of global poplation representing 59 nations have such significant drop in fertility that they are no longer SUSTAINABLE! Global financial crisis?
World's Fastest-Shrinking Countries Bloomberg Businessweek By Venessa Wong Populations in decline Many people fear that the Earth's population is growing at a terrifying clip. By the year 2050 the number of people is expected to increase more than 37 percent, to 9.5 billion. There is concern that mankind will run out of natural resources, jobs, food, housing, social services, infrastructure, even physical space. In 25 countries with more than a million residents, the opposite is true: Their populations are shrinking dramatically— threatening not only economic growth, but national prestige.
No. 1 Japan 2010 Population: 127,370,000 Forecast 2050 Population: 95,152,000 Percent Decrease: 25.3 percent 2010 Population over age 65: 23 percent Fertility Rate: 1.4 Net Migration Rate: -1 No. 13 South Korea 2010 Population: 48,875,000 Forecast 2050 Population: 42,343,000 Percent Decrease: 13.4 percent 2010 Population over age 65: 11 percent Fertility Rate: 1.2 Net Migration Rate: 1 No. 24 Taiwan 2010 Population: 23,162,000 Forecast 2050 Population: 21,472,000 Percent Decrease: 7.3 percent 2010 Population over age 65: 11 percent Fertility Rate: 1 Net Migration Rate: 2 No. 18 Russia 2010 Population: 141,920,000 Forecast 2050 Population: 126,674,000 Percent Decrease: 10.7 percent 2010 Population over age 65: 13 percent Fertility Rate: 1.5 Net Migration Rate: 2 No. 16 Germany 2010 Population: 81,624,000 Forecast 2050 Population: 71,510,000 Percent Decrease: 12.4 percent 2010 Population over age 65: 20 percent Fertility Rate: 1.3 Net Migration Rate: -1
No. 2 Ukraine No. 3 Georgia No. 4 Bulgaria No. 5 Bosnia-Herzegovina No. 6 Latvia No. 9 Poland No. 10 Moldova No. 11 Romania No. 12 Cuba No. 14 Croatia No. 15 Belarus No. 19 Slovakia No. 20 Hungary No. 21 Macedonia No. 22 Slovenia No. 23 Estonia No. 25 Puerto Rico * THE OTHER OF TOP 25…
FLASHBACK… National Golf Foundation (NGF): 1950-1970s A general population of 10,000 required for support per 18- holes We operated on that assumption well into the 1980s
USA Post War Baby Boom 80 million baby boomers followed by only 65 million from generation "X".
?? BUT… Time became more scarce! Between 1969 and 1987 the average American worked an extra month per year. From 1975 to 2000 it was an astounding two months per year! = SCARCITY of free time for recreation.
?? BUT… Time became more scarce! There was an explosion of recreation activities competing with golf – but it grew – the USA Post War Baby Boom. Now it is OVER – aging Boomers Good news: USA has a stable fertility rate above 2.0
How does all this bode for the future? East Asia is in trouble. Japan’s economic fate is sealed.
How does all this bode for the future? East Asia is in trouble. Japan’s economic fate is sealed. Europe is in trouble. Korea is 10 years behind Japan – WHY? China will age before it gets rich. India has a grim challenge similar to China. Today 60% of global population is in temperate latitudes 2050 60% will be in tropical latitudes.
How does all this bode for the future? Developing World:
How does all this bode for the future? Southeast Asia’s economic future is bright. Philippines a ‘poor country?’ Fertility demographic power house assures a future economy.
How does all this bode for the future? Philippines:
Learn from the past… Industrial Revolution demographic trends – rural to urban. = A great LIBERALIZATION of social behaviors. Reaction was the Victorian Age. Higher ‘education,’ scarcity of time = lower fertility => Narcissus
Conclusions… Recreation and hospitality face great challenges Reduced leisure time Reduced disposable incomes Aging populations Shifts of our traditional customer bases Greater competition Labor costs Access issues
Conclusions… Increased pressures on maintenance expenses Potable water scarcity (Milt to Asia!) We need to wake up and focus on developing new golfers We need to multi-task, multi-think, multi-discipline – less narrow education ABOVE ALL, we need to see these things – “in the SEEDS”
My presentations will be posted to my web site at: www.PrusaAssociates.com